846
WTNT43 KNHC 200848
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

The area of deep convection near the center of Claudette has
weakened over the past several hours, though rain bands have become
more distinct in the southeastern quadrant. Surface observations
continue to indicate that the maximum winds are about 25 kt, and
these winds are almost all over the Gulf of Mexico well to the
south of the center.

Claudette is moving east-northeastward at about 11 kt. The system
should gradually accelelerate in that direction through tonight as
it moves ahead of a digging trough over the central United States,
and all of the models show the system near the North Carolina coast
by midday Monday. Claudette should then move even faster to the
northeast through Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned trough due to
stronger steering flow. Guidance remains in very good agreement
through that time, and little change was made to the previous
forecast. The end of the forecast remains uncertain as some of
the guidance is showing more of a turn to the left closer to Nova
Scotia. However, a stronger system would argue for something that
remains more separate from the large mid-latitude trough steering
the system, so the new forecast is close to the previous one, on
the south side of the guidance.

Conditions appear to be conducive for the re-development of
Claudette once it encounters a more unstable marine environment
late today. The system should move close to the Gulf Stream by
Monday afternoon, likely fueling intensification while the shear is
low. The previously divergent model suite is in better agreement
now, with the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF models all showing the system
becoming a tropical storm again near the North Carolina Outer Banks
with some strengthening over the western Atlantic Ocean.
Extratropical transiton should be quick after it moves north of
the Gulf Stream, assisted by strong shear in 48 to 60 hours. The
new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one,
close to the NOAA Corrected Consensus Guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama,
and Georgia through this morning, and into the Carolinas through
Monday morning. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts are possible across these areas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 33.3N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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