WTPZ34 KNHC 192037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATE OF JALISCO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 104.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located inland near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 104.1 West.
Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther
inland across the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A station near the Nevado de Colima volcano in
the state of Jalisco recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph
(60 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages__;!!DZ3fjg!qKwiEU78eCOH4eBq40eV06lBhB8F_dFeVelZyBNw6v3N0-An995A_-fEHtR_ndYLsv3XRbqv$
.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area and will continue to spread inland across portions of
west-central Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend.
This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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