FOUS11 KWBC 030715
QPFHSD
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 03 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026
...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Days 1-2...
...Second of back-to-back systems will bring additional heavy snow
and icing to portions of the region into the weekend...
The second significant late-season winter storm in 48 hours is
currently organizing as a deep closed low tracks across the
northern Rockies this morning. This system, characterized by
anomalously low heights and deep moisture from both the Gulf and
the Pacific, is expected to track east of the northern Rockies to
the upper Great Lakes over the next 36 hours. As the system moves
into the northern Plains, guidance continues to show a band of
heavy snow (1+ in/hr rates) developing within the associated
deformation axis later today. As this band pivots over the
Dakotas, heavy accumulations are likely. Bands of heavier snow are
expected to begin shifting into northern Minnesota by this evening
and then continue into Saturday before winding down late in the
day as the low begins to track east of the Great Lakes. The latest
WPC guidance indicates accumulations greater than 8 inches are
likely to cover much of the northern third of South Dakota, the
southern half of North Dakota, and northern Minnesota from the
North Dakota border to the Arrowhead, with embedded totals over a
foot expected within this area.
Significant freezing rain is expected on the warmer, eastern flank
of the system. Measurable ice is forecast from eastern South
Dakota and northwestern Iowa to northern Michigan, with the most
significant accumulations expected across northern Wisconsin and
the western U.P. WPC probabilities indicate ice accumulations of
0.10-0.25 inch, with locally heavier amounts, are likely across this area.
Sandwiched between the axes of heaviest snow and freezing rain will
likely be a stripe of appreciable sleet, with accumulations around
0.5 inch in spots.
Key Messages are in effect for this system and are linked below.
...Northern New England... Days 1-3...
Two distinct rounds of mixed precipitation, driven by warm air
advection interacting with retreating cold air, will impact the
region today and then over the weekend.
Precipitation will continue to spread north through the morning
across New England, with most areas in northern New England
transitioning quickly to sleet and freezing rain after a brief
period of snow. An eventual change to all rain is expected for most
areas by this evening as low pressure over eastern Canada
continues to track toward the region.
Precipitation is expected to wane Friday night, with dry
conditions likely through Saturday until the system detailed above
follows a similar track east of the Great Lakes. Once again, any
snow will be short-lived with precipitation quickly changing over
to sleet and freezing rain, and then eventually rain as any
lingering cold air gives way to warm air rushing north of what is
forecast to become an amplified low.
For both rounds, snow accumulations greater than an inch will
likely be mostly confined to far northern Maine, while ice
accumulations, mostly on the order of 0.1 inch or less are expected
from northern New Hampshire through northern Maine.
Pereira
...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png
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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)
