ACUS02 KWNS 051712
SWODY2
SPC AC 051710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Fri Mar 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States Saturday and Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico will move to the
Bahamian Archipelago and continue to be absorbed within a
larger-scale mid-level trough over eastern North America during the
day-2 period. Southerly low-level flow over the FL Straits will
advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the southern part of
the FL Peninsula during the day. Scattered showers and isolated
weak thunderstorms are possible from the Everglades northeast to the
Space Coast. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will be pervasive
across much of the area east of the Rockies.

..Smith.. 03/05/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 060657
SWODY2
SPC AC 060656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Sat Mar 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may occur along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Sunday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States Sunday and Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Great Plains on
Sunday, as an upper-level low moves southward across the
northeastern Pacific. Southwest mid-level flow, associated with the
Pacific low pressure system, will be in place across much of the
western U.S. Strong large-scale ascent will overspread the Pacific
Northwest as a lapse rates steepen across western Washington and
western Oregon. These two conditions will make isolated thunderstorm development possible near the coasts of the Pacific Northwest today
and tonight. Instability will be too weak for a severe threat.
Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm
development is not expected Sunday or Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 03/06/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 061654
SWODY2
SPC AC 061653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Sat Mar 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A quiescent weather pattern for thunderstorms will exist for much of
the Lower 48 on Sunday. Dry/stable conditions will exist over most
of the continental U.S. and be influenced by surface high pressure
and offshore flow over the Atlantic Seaboard and Gulf of Mexico.
The exception will be along the parts of the West Coast, where a
mid-upper trough is forecast to approach the northern half of CA and
OR/WA during the period. Very cold mid-level temperatures may
support fleeting pockets of instability near the immediate coast of
OR/WA as low-topped convection moves ashore. A few thunderstorms
are possible with this activity.

..Smith.. 03/06/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the West
Coast Monday and Monday night, but no severe thunderstorms are
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Mississippi Valley
on Monday as an upper-level low moves southward across the northeast
Pacific. Between the two features, southwest mid-level flow will be
in place across most of the western and central U.S. Strong
large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level system in the
northeast Pacific will overspread the Pacific Northwest. This
combined with steep lapse rates will make conditions favorable for
isolated light strikes along the coast. This potential will exist
along the coast from Washington southward to the coast of northern
California. Instability will be weak and no severe threat is
forecast. Elsewhere across the continental United States,
thunderstorm development is not expected Monday or Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/07/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 071716
SWODY2
SPC AC 071714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will slowly move southward while remaining centered
to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast during the day-2 period.
A series of shortwave troughs will move through the base of the
eastern Pacific trough and episodically move ashore the northern
CA/OR coast. Relatively steep lapse rates owing to cold mid-level
temperatures will result in intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy
near the immediate coast. Low-topped convection embedded within
areas of showers may yield a few lightning flashes. Elsewhere, a
progressive low-amplitude flow regime will exist across the Lower 48
with generally dry/stable conditions.

..Smith.. 03/07/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 081715
SWODY2
SPC AC 081713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are forecast mainly along the West Coast Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Isolated activity cannot be ruled out over Iowa
and neighboring states Tuesday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough will exist over the western CONUS on Tuesday,
with a strong mid and upper jet nosing across the Four Corners area
late. Cold air aloft on the cyclonic side of this jet will maximize
instability from CA into western OR, with heating providing
steepening lapse rates. Widespread precipitation is expected
throughout the period from western OR southward across the Sierra,
with a few thunderstorms developing during the daytime. Winds will
veer with height, but not be particularly strong. While a weakly
rotating storm or two is possible into the central/northern CA, the
severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities at this
time due to marginal shear and weak instability.

Elsewhere, a lead shortwave trough will move quickly northeast
across the central Plains and into Mid MO and Upper MS valleys
overnight, with a weak low along the KS/NE border. Warm advection
with a southwesterly low level jet may provide enough moistening for
isolated thunderstorms, however, forecast soundings indicate capping
will be a concern.

..Jewell.. 03/08/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 091721
SWODY2
SPC AC 091720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Tue Mar 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms producing mainly large hail will be
possible from northern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri, Wednesday evening and overnight.

...Synopsis...
As an upper low drops south along the CA Coast, strong southwest
flow aloft will increase from the southwestern states into the
Plains, with a leading low-amplitude wave over the central Plains by
00Z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern MN into
northern KS at 00Z, with southwesterly surface winds bringing 50s F
dewpoints north toward the boundary. A dryline will extend from
eastern KS into western OK and west TX at 00Z, with upper 50s F
dewpoints and heating along it.

The primary surface low will move from the MN/IA area at 00Z to Lake
Superior by 12Z Thursday, as the lead wave continues rapidly
northeastward. Lift along the trailing fronts and a moistening air
mass will provide the primary focus for thunderstorms late
Wednesday.

...KS...OK...MO...
A warming, but capped air mass will be maintained during the day
over the Slight Risk area, with a shallow moist boundary layer
depicted by forecast soundings. By around 03Z, lift will increase
along the cold front into northeast KS, and zippering southwestward intersecting along the dryline. A 50-60 kt low-level jet will aid
moisture transport and theta-e advection, with a few strong to
severe storms possible. These storms will mostly be elevated, with
strong deep-layer shear aiding longevity and forward tilt. A strong
wind gust is possible as well with any storms that remain south of
the sagging cold front.

Farther south along the dryline into western OK, a conditional risk
of hail may exist during the late afternoon. Strong heating and
surface convergence may prove sufficient to instigate a cell, but
forecast soundings show capping quickly becomes a concern. Any
threat would likely be short lived, with the better threat farther
north along the KS border during the evening.

..Jewell.. 03/09/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A threat of mainly hail may exist Thursday from northeast Oklahoma
into southern Illinois. Isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough will exist over the southwestern states with a
broad belt of strong southwesterlies extending across the Plains and
into the MS and OH Valleys. Early in the period, a fast-moving
shortwave trough will move across the upper Great Lakes, with subtle
height rises in its wake.

At the surface, low pressure associated with the lead wave will move
from Lake Superior into Quebec, with a cold front trailing
southwestward across IN, IL, southern MO and OK. Ahead of this
front, mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will be common, with a few lower
60s F possible from the Ozarks southwestward into TX.

Given a degree of warming aloft during the day and the
aforementioned height rises, large-scale support for severe storms
will be minimal. However, strong deep-layer shear will remain
situated along the length of the slow-moving cold front, and at
least 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast as lapse rates aloft will
remain sufficiently steep. Low-level profiles may remain somewhat
stable or marginally buoyant per forecast soundings, but even
elevated storms will have the potential to produce marginal hail.
Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, and marginally unstable boundary-layer, isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with any fast-moving cells.

Areas of storms may be ongoing early in the day from MO into IL and
IN, with hail threat. Further development is possible near the
boundary and extending southwestward through afternoon, and into the
evening as warm advection persists atop the surface layer.

..Jewell.. 03/10/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 111726
SWODY2
SPC AC 111724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible Friday and Friday night across parts of
west Texas, far eastern New Mexico and into western Oklahoma.
Isolated hail is possible in surrounding states from southern Kansas
into southwest Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move slowly eastward across the
Southwest, with the upper low near the Four Corners by 12Z Saturday.
An intense cyclonically curved midlevel jet streak will also move
across AZ and NM, with height falls increasing into west TX late in
the period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the Gulf of
Mexico.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will extend roughly along
I-40, from TX across OK and into TN with 50s and 60s F dewpoints to
the south. There is model uncertainty regarding the position of this
boundary and therefore SBCAPE and tornado/wind potential. Low
pressure will develop ahead of the upper trough, over NM during the
day and toward the TX border by 12Z Saturday when a cold front will
take shape. While sporadic strong storms are expected during the day
from OK into KS and MO, the primary severe risk will occur after 03Z
across eastern NM and west TX.

...Southern Plains...
An extensive band of rain and thunderstorms is expected to be
ongoing Friday morning in the warm advection regime, with isolated
hail possible from northern OK into southern KS and extending east
into southern MO and northern AR.

It is uncertain how much additional activity will form, if any,
during the afternoon for the remainder of central OK into northwest
TX. While moist and unstable, a capping inversion will exist with
little in the way of lift. However, will maintain low probabilities
for this conditional risk.

The main threat of severe storms will be after 03Z ahead of the
approaching upper trough and cold front. Storms are expected to form
over far eastern NM and into western TX where low-level moisture
backs westward toward the surface trough. While some capping is
likely due to time of day, this cap will be surmountable given the
forcing for ascent. Shear profiles will favor supercells, producing
large hail and perhaps a tornado where capping is least problematic. Fast-moving storms may also produce isolated wind damage.

..Jewell.. 03/11/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 130652
SWODY2
SPC AC 130651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AN AREA
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may affect a portion of the lower
Mississippi Valley area, centered on the Delta region on Sunday.
Locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur,
mainly during the evening hours.

...Synopsis...
A large upper low is forecast to be exiting the Rockies and moving
slowly into the central Plains Sunday, as a second low -- initially
crossing the eastern Pacific -- digs southeastward to coastal
northern California late. Meanwhile, troughing over the Northeast
will shift eastward with time, across the Canadian Maritimes and
western Atlantic.

At the surface, a weakening Pacific front -- initially crossing
eastern portions of the southern Plains -- will move eastward toward
the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak wave may develop along the
front over Arkansas during the late afternoon/early evening, and
move eastward to near Memphis through early Monday morning.

...Lower Mississippi Valley region and vicinity...
A near-frontal band of rain showers is forecast to advance across
eastern portions of Oklahoma and Texas through the day Sunday, as
the weakening Pacific front advances. Limited instability suggests
only local/occasional lighting for the most part, into the afternoon
hours.

As modest heating contributes to some boundary-layer destabilization
and eventually very weak surface-based CAPE across roughly the
eastern half of Arkansas by late afternoon, a few stronger
convective cells may evolve. This zone of somewhat more robust
convection will then shift across the Mississippi Delta region
through the region, and eventually portions of western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi.

Though minimal CAPE will very likely be a limiting factor,
deep-layer shear (both speed and directional shear) suggests that
any updraft which could take root within a locally/slightly more
unstable environment ahead of the front would likely acquire
rotation. Locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, along with
a tornado or two. Otherwise, a few stronger updrafts within the
frontal band of convection may be capable of locally gusty/damaging
winds, or a brief QLCS-type tornado. Risk -- though very
local/limited -- may persist through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 03/13/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 131729
SWODY2
SPC AC 131727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, mainly late in the
afternoon and evening across parts of central and southeastern
Arkansas, where they may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and a
couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Within a southern branch of split westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific, it appears that a broad mid-level low,
currently centered to the west/southwest of the Four Corners, will
remain progressive through this period. Surrounding troughing is
forecast to remain in phase with a belt of westerlies emanating from
the subtropical Pacific, and models indicate that a significant
upstream mid-latitude short wave trough will dig into the Pacific
coast region by 12Z Wednesday. As a couple of vigorous smaller
scale perturbations pivot around its eastern through northern, and
southern through eastern, periphery, the center of the closed low is
forecast to redevelop northeast of the southern Rockies into the
central Great Plains Sunday through Sunday night. This will occur
to the south of ridging within the northern branch, in the wake of a
vigorous northern branch short wave trough forecast to dig across
the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

In response to these developments, cold surface ridging likely will
be reinforced across much of the northern Great Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region through the northern and middle
Atlantic Seaboard, while warmer but dry conditions persist across
the Southeast and eastern Gulf of Mexico in association with
lingering surface ridging. Across southern portions of the Great
Plains, it appears that an occluding surface low center, initially
over western Kansas, will migrate northwestward and weaken, while
another low center forms to its southwest and migrates east
northeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region.

Models indicate that a Pacific front trailing the occluding low
center will surge east of the southern Great Plains during the day
Sunday, but weaken while doing so. As it does, it appears that a
relatively narrow moist, warm sector will generally become confined
to portions of Louisiana into Arkansas by peak afternoon heating,
before shifting across the lower Mississippi Valley overnight.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Forecast soundings indicate only weak to modest boundary-layer
warming within the moistening warm sector, beneath relatively warm
mid-level layers which probably will limit peak mixed-layer CAPE to
around 500 J/kg or less. However, in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, the environment probably will become at least
conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm
development.

In association with the perturbation pivoting around the southern
through eastern periphery of the southern branch mid-level low,
models continue to suggest that an area of lower pressure or a weak
frontal wave could become a focus for strengthening large-scale
ascent across southwestern through northeastern Arkansas late Sunday
afternoon and evening. This may be accompanied by southerly 850 mb
jet strengthening from 30-50 kt, which could contribute to low-level
hodographs supportive of supercell structures posing a risk for
damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. Initially, storm
development may be largely discrete in nature before perhaps
evolving into a broken line while spreading eastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley overnight.

..Kerr.. 03/13/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 140701
SWODY2
SPC AC 140700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Appreciable severe risk is not evident at this time across the U.S.
on Monday.

...Discussion...
An upper low initially over the central Plains is forecast to shift
northward, weakening with time ahead of the next upper system
progged to dig southeastward across California and Nevada through
the day, and into Arizona late.

At the surface, a weakening front will continue to dissipate as it
shifts eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. A cold front is
also forecast to move southeastward across California and Nevada,
and eventually into the Desert Southwest, ahead of the
aforementioned upper system

Showers are forecast across California and into the Great Basin
during the day, in conjunction with the advance of the upper system.
An occasional/embedded lightning flash may occur, but any coverage
should remain too sparse to warrant a thunder area.

In the central Gulf Coast region/Mid South, a zone of weak
convection will likely shift west-to-east across the area, in tandem
with the weakening surface front. However, warm air in the 700 to
600mb layer should hinder deeper convection/lightning across much of
the area. A stronger cell or two may occur during the afternoon
near peak heating, across the northeastern Mississippi/northern Alabama/southern Tennessee area. However, while a locally stronger
wind gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out entirely, any
severe-weather potential appears too low to justify issuance of a
severe risk area attm.

..Goss.. 03/14/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 141709
SWODY2
SPC AC 141708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong-to-severe storms are possible across parts of
east-central Mississippi into northern Alabama Monday afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts, hail and possibly a tornado may
accompany these storms.

...Mississippi/Alabama Vicinity...

A somewhat conditional severe threat appears possible Monday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern MS into northern
AL. An upper low and associated shortwave trough over the central
Plains/Ozarks vicinity will lift northward through the period. This
will result in neutral to slightly falling heights across the TN
Valley. However, strong deep layer southwesterly flow will remain
over the region, and 0-6 km shear profiles will support supercells.
At the surface, a weak low will migrate east, roughly along the I-70
corridor from KS into IL. A weak cold front will push eastward
across western TN and northern MS through 00z, while a backdoor cold
front drops southwest from eastern TN/GA and stalls over far
northeast AL into central GA. This will result in a narrow warm
sector across parts of MS into AL, characterized by low-to-mid 60s
dewpoints. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, around 6.5-7
C/km, but increasing low level moisture and surface heating into the
70s should result in 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across the outlook area.

Convergence along the cold front will be weak, and strong forcing
associated with the upper low will be lifting north of the region.
As a result, storm development will be mostly diurnally-driven and
more intense cells will be limited in coverage. Nevertheless, a
small corridor will exist where favorable instability and shear will
overlap such that if a cell does develop, it could become severe.
Low level directional shear will be weak, but speed shear increases
quickly with height such that low level hodographs will be modest
but favorably curved. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
will be the main threat with any stronger cells that develop. Weak
lapse rates and modest instability will limit large hail potential,
but a couple of near-1 inch hail stones could accompany any severe
cell as well.

...Central MO Vicinity...

Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon as
the negatively-tilted shortwave trough lifts northward across the
region. A west-east oriented surface boundary, associated with a
weakening surface low shifting eastward across the region will be
the focus of this development. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will
result in weak elevated instability amid moderate shear. While these
storms will remain elevated above a cool boundary layer, some small,
sub-severe hail could accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 03/14/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 151731
SWODY2
SPC AC 151729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the lower
Mississippi Valley through the central Gulf Coast states through the
afternoon and early evening on Tuesday. Strong wind gusts, hail and
a tornado or two are possible with this activity.

Additional severe storms are expected across parts of Texas,
Oklahoma and Kansas late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Large hail will be the main hazards with this activity, though
strong gusts and a tornado can not be ruled out.

...Synopsis...

A broad swath of moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will extend
from the southern Plains to the TN and OH Valley vicinities, ahead
of a compact upper low ejecting eastward from the lower CO Valley to
the southern Plains. Strong capping across the southern Plains will
limit thunderstorm potential until the evening/overnight hours
across the southern Plains. Further east, thunderstorms will be
ongoing across parts of the lower MS Valley into GA in a warm
advection regime.

...Southern Plains to Ozarks vicinity...

A midlevel ridge will reside across the region through the
afternoon. This will maintain a capping inversion and limit
convection through the first half of the period. By evening, the
upper low/shortwave trough will eject eastward, resulting in falling
heights and cooling aloft. Southerly low level flow will transport
Gulf moisture northward ahead of a developing surface low over the
southern High Plains. Upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will spread
across much of central and northern TX and into the eastern
two-thirds of OK and much of AR, with lower values sneaking into
southeast KS and southern MO after 00z. As the surface low
progresses eastward, a Pacific front/dryline will spread across
western OK/TX, and become oriented roughly along/to the east of the
I-35 corridor in OK/TX by 12z Wednesday.

After 00z, and more likely after 06z, increasing moisture beneath
very steep midlevel lapse rates amid strong ascent and favorable
deep layer wind profiles will mainly support large hail potential.
This potential will extend along the eastward-advancing cold front
across western/central TX, in storm clusters developing near the
surface low, and along a west-east oriented warm front near the
OK/KS border into northwest AR. Convection will likely remain
somewhat elevated along the cold front given timing during the
overnight hours, and storm motion vectors that could favor
undercutting by the front. However, strong low level shear and
enlarged low level hodographs will support rotating cells,
especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Should a storm become
rooted in the boundary layer on the warm side of the front, a
tornado or damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out.

...Central Gulf Coast States...

Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast region, in an area of persistent low-level warm advection/weak
ascent. With time, a backdoor front over Georgia, and the weakening
Pacific cool front crossing the central Gulf Coast region, will
loosely consolidate into a west-to-east warm front, that will lift
slowly northward through the afternoon and evening as the western
synoptic system ejects into the southern Plains.

Mid-60s surface dewpoints will reside across much of the region,
with temperatures warming into the 70s, providing a broad area of
500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE. Larger-scale forcing will remain weak across
the region as the upper trough remains well west of the area.
However, effective shear greater than 35 kt and modest midlevel
lapse rates will support periodically organized convection.
South/southwesterly flow beneath 700 mb will remain modest, less
than 25-30 kt in most cases, but small, curved low level hodographs
could result in some weakly rotating cells. Periodic clusters of
storms across this region through afternoon/early evening will
likely occur, with a few storms possibly becoming transiently
severe. Locally damaging winds, marginal hail, or even a tornado
cannot be ruled out. Given the transient threat over a large area, a
Marginal risk will be maintained.

..Leitman.. 03/15/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into
Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into
Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes
(several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense
damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe
storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during
the afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Synopsis...

A compact and intense upper low over the southern Plains will eject
eastward to the Ozark Plateau/lower MS Valley on Wednesday. A
surface low centered over northeast OK will develop east/northeast
in tandem with the upper system. At the beginning of the period, a
cold front will extend southward from the low across eastern OK into
eastern TX before arcing southwest into south TX. A warm front
draped northwest to southeast from near the MO/AR border into
northern AL will gradually lift northward through the period. There
is some uncertainty in how far north this boundary will lift across
northern GA/eastern TN given strong cold air damming across the
Carolinas until very late in the period. The cold front should push
eastward to Middle TN/central AL and the western FL Panhandle.
Across the broad warm sector, dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are
expected beneath steepening lapse rates and intense vertical shear,
resulting in an environment capable of supporting a widespread
severe weather outbreak.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...

Convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning near the surface low,
southward along the cold front, and eastward along the northward
retreating warm front from central AR into northern MS/AL. Any
convection north of the warm front will be elevated and pose a
threat mainly for large hail. However, shear profiles will improve
through the morning and surface-based storms near the triple point
and along the warm front are possible and will increase the risk for
damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Further south along the cold
front across eastern OK into eastern TX, convection will move into
an increasing unstable and moist environment. A line of supercells
and line segments is expected to develop as convection moves into AR
and approaches the Sabine Valley. All severe hazards are expected
with this activity from Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

...Lower MS Valley into AL/GA...

Multiple rounds of intense, severe convection will be possible,
mainly across MS/AL on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours.
Convection will intensify along the eastward progressing cold front
across central and eastern AR/LA during the late morning/afternoon
as it encounters effective shear greater than 60 kt, MLCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Fast storm
motion, with 925-700 mb flow greater than 40 kt will support
widespread damaging gusts with some gusts greater than 65 kt
expected. Large hail (some greater than 2 inch in diameter,
especially from the AR/MO border into northern LA, southwest TN and northern/central MS) is also expected with this activity.

Further east across northeast LA into MS and AL a more concerning
scenario appears possible. Most forecast guidance agrees that a
round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected. This activity is
expected to develop in weaker ascent, driven by heating and low
level warm advection. Strong 0-3 km shear near 30-40 kt will already
be in place with enlarged low level hodographs evident. Given weaker
forcing, this activity will have an opportunity to remain more
discrete and any cell will quickly become a supercell capable of
producing strong tornadoes. As a 40-50 kt low level jet increases
around 00-03z, intense supercells are expected to advance eastward
along with the cold front across MS and into AL overnight. This will
bring a second round of significant severe storms capable of intense
tornadoes, large hail and intense damaging winds across much of
MS/AL. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk
could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z
tonight.

..Leitman.. 03/16/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is possible on
Thursday from parts of east-central Georgia northeastward across
South Carolina and North Carolina. Significant tornadoes, wind
damage and large hail will be possible from morning into afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of the eastern
Gulf Coast into the southern and central Appalachians.

...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida...
A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the
Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward
into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located
from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This
boundary will move northward across central and eastern North
Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface
dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F.
As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is
expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern
North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided
by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large
hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid
morning hours.

Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with
the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central
Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward
into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of
the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to
2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative
helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely
with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible
along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum
threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional
outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes
are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector
from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina.

Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during
the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability
continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms
will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward
across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should
have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70
kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line
segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes,
wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes
will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the
line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by
widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South
Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater
than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line
segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as
the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the
morning and early afternoon.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley on
Thursday. Ahead of the system, a line of strong thunderstorms may be
ongoing at the start of the period from parts of far eastern
Tennessee northward into far western Virginia. Behind the line,
surface temperature will warm during the day resulting in a corridor
of moderate instability, from eastern Kentucky into the western
Virginias. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent,
steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt will be
favorable for severe storms. Large hail, wind damage and a tornado
or two will be possible across the upper Ohio Valley during the
afternoon.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 181656
SWODY2
SPC AC 181654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...South Florida...

A cold front will be situated over south Florida by 12Z Friday. A
moist boundary layer with upper 60s F surface dewpoints will reside
in the warm sector with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. A few showers will
occur within the zone of shallow frontal forcing. Point-forecast
soundings indicate an inversion near 700 mb, and with deeper forcing
likely to remain well north of warm sector, most convection is
expected to remain shallow. However, there is some chance for an
isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore by late
morning.

...Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies...

A few thunderstorms will be possible during the day, mainly near the
Pacific NW coast in association with cold air aloft and steep lapse
rates in vicinity of an inland-moving shortwave trough. Other
thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front moving through the
northern Rockies during the afternoon. In both cases, very weak
instability suggests coverage will remain sparse.

..Dial.. 03/18/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 191706
SWODY2
SPC AC 191704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not anticipated over the U.S. on Saturday

...Synopsis...
A dry, continental air mass will be in place across much of the
central and eastern CONUS early Saturday morning. Some modification
is anticipated along the southern and western periphery of this air
mass as southerly low-level flow increases ahead of an upper trough
traversing the western CONUS. However, low-level moisture will
remain well removed from the forcing for ascent associated with this
upper trough, and no thunderstorms are expected across the central
and eastern CONUS.

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible within the
frontal band attendant to the western CONUS upper trough as it moves
from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies. A few deeper
convective cores may also develop within the persistent forcing for
ascent in the wake of the lead frontal band. Steep mid-level lapse
rates throughout the region will contribute to modest instability
and the potential for a few storms to become deep enough for
lightning production.

..Mosier.. 03/19/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 200454
SWODY2
SPC AC 200453

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected over the U.S. on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the western U.S. will develop southward,
forming a closed low over the Four Corners region by Monday morning.
As the trough develops southward, it will merge stronger southern
stream flow near the international border/northwest Mexico and
moderate southwesterly flow will overspread the southern
Rockies/High Plains vicinity by the end of the period. In response
to strong height falls, a surface low is forecast to develop over
eastern NM and shift eastward into the TX Panhandle overnight, while
a weak cold front drops southward through the central Plains. Modest
low level moisture, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 40s, will
exist ahead of the surface low/front across much of TX/OK/KS,
precluding much in the way of surface-based instability.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates as the upper trough
ejects eastward will support weak elevated instability. As a result,
a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
southern Plains late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

..Leitman.. 03/20/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 201657
SWODY2
SPC AC 201656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected late Sunday centered over the
central High Plains. Severe storms are unlikely, but small hail
cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the West,
and will amplify into Sunday morning as a speed max aloft
intensifies across far southern AZ/NM and into northern Mexico.
Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will remain over the Mid Atlantic,
with a surface ridge extending from New England into TX and across
the western Gulf of Mexico.

As a result of the high pressure ridge, only weak moisture return is
expected across the southern Plains in advance of the western trough
as southerly surface winds increase. As low pressure develops late
in the period from NM into west TX, lift will increase, with
elevated instability developing from the TX Panhandle into western
KS.

Forecast soundings indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE will
develop, rooted between 850 mb and 700 mb. While effective
deep-layer shear will favor storm longevity, total instability may
only favor small hail, and severe storms appear unlikely.

..Jewell.. 03/20/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 210459
SWODY2
SPC AC 210457

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday
evening and Monday night across parts of central and southern
Oklahoma into northern Texas. Hail and gusty winds will be the main
hazards with these storms.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the Four Corners and northern Mexico
will develop eastward across the central/southern Plains on Monday.
In response to strong height falls, a surface low over the TX
Panhandle will deepen and lift northeast across KS toward northwest
MO by Tuesday morning. Strengthening southerly low level flow will
transport modest Gulf moisture northward across into OK and the
Ozarks ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the southern/central Plains
and Ozarks, with some marginally severe storms possible near the
cold front from north Texas into southern/central Oklahoma Monday
evening into the overnight hours.

...OK/TX...

Instability will remain weak across the region, in part due to only
weak surface heating and modest moisture return ahead of the cold
front/upper trough. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will
support 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE in a narrow corridor near/just ahead of
the cold front. A capping inversion will limit surface-based storms
through peak heating, and some boundary layer inhibition will likely
persist through the end of the period. As a result, thunderstorms
near the cold front will likely remain elevated. As a low level jet
increases during the evening, some organized cells capable of hail
and perhaps some gusty winds will be possible. Some upward
development into a fast-moving line or line segments is possible as
the cold front sweeps eastward toward eastern OK/northeast TX
overnight and a low-end severe threat could persist into the early
overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 03/21/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 211732
SWODY2
SPC AC 211731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Several severe thunderstorms are possible Monday evening and Monday
night across parts of Oklahoma into Texas. Hail and damaging gusts
will be most likely, with perhaps an isolated tornado.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners region
Monday morning into the southern High Plains by late afternoon,
becoming negatively tilted by 12Z Tue across KS, OK, and AR. Low
pressure is expected to develop over the TX Panhandle or South
Plains during the afternoon, with a dryline and heating over west TX
during the day. A relatively cool but moistening air mass will exist
east of the dryline, from southern KS into OK and central TX. Abroad
belt of 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb winds will develop, aiding theta-e
advection. The most favorable large-scale lift will move from the
eastern TX Panhandle across OK and north TX, and this is where the
greatest confidence of a few severe storms is currently.

...TX and OK...
While model differences do exist, a strong upper trough with
significant cooling aloft/height falls will affect the region Monday
afternoon and night. Details regarding the best area for severe
storms may be best resolved into the Day 1 time frame, with a
possible Slight Risk in later updates. For now, have expanded the
Marginal Risk to include much of northern and central Texas, where a front/dryline will pass through Monday night.

As far as evolution, the initial severe risk is expected to form
Monday afternoon along the dryline from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK, and perhaps southward into west-central TX, in
close proximity to the steeper low-level lapse rates. The air mass
farther east toward I-35 will likely experience substantial clouds
and precipitation during the day, and may limit the initiated
eastward extend of the dryline convection. Still, a narrow zone of
severe potential is forecast, with isolated supercells possible
producing large hail. A brief tornado is possible.

Due to strong cooling aloft, storms may continue to be strong to
potentially severe overnight with 500 mb temperatures falling into
the lower -20 C to -24 C range across OK and northern TX. A slow
transition from rain and embedded storms to more substantial storms
is possible, with wind and hail risk.

Less confidence exists for storms farther south into central TX, but
models such as the ECMWF and 4km NSSL WRF show substantial storm
converge overnight.

..Jewell.. 03/21/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 221705
SWODY2
SPC AC 221704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ANOTHER AREA CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi on Tuesday, and from
northern Missouri into adjacent southern Iowa and western Illinois
during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move in negative-tilt fashion from OK and KS
Tuesday morning into MO, IL and IA by late afternoon, providing
cooling aloft and increasing shear. To the south, neutral height
tendencies aloft will exist across the lower MS Valley, as another
upper trough amplifies over the Southwest.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move from eastern KS
during the day into IA by evening, filling slowly with time. A cold
front will arc southeastward from the low, situated over MO during
the afternoon. Southerly surface winds will maintain low to possibly
mid 50s F dewpoints, resulting in sufficient instability for
scattered diurnal storms.

To the south, the more robust low-level moisture will exist ahead of
a stalling front, from central LA into southern MS with mid 60s F
dewpoints common. The eastward extend of the better moisture will be
limited by trajectories emanating out of a dry/modifying air mass
over the Southeast, but this effective warm front will provide
enhanced lift.

...LA into MS...
Numerous showers and storms should be ongoing along and ahead of the
cold front from LA into MS, with an instability axis near the Sabine
river at 12Z Tuesday. Much of this activity may be effectively
elevated at this time. By midday, surface parcels are likely to
become better incorporated into the ongoing convection, with new
development possible over central LA into southwestern MS. Although
the upper trough will continue shifting away from the area,
low-level convergence and ample moisture will ensure continued storm development, and a few severe storms will be possible. Strong
deep-layer shear as well as stronger low-level SRH with eastward
extend may support a supercell or two. If the supercells can
maintain access to the more unstable air to the southwest of the
diffuse warm front, a tornado would be possible. Otherwise, locally
strong gusts or hail is expected with mixed-mode storms.

...MO...IA...IL...
Early day rain and storms should quickly shift east across MO and AR
along the low-level jet axis. Although the surface low will be
slowly filling, daytime heating will produce a plume of steep
low-level lapse rates across much of central MO and extending into
southwest IA. With 50s F dewpoints and cold air aloft, the result
will be an uncapped and sufficiently unstable air mass to support
low-topped cells, including a few supercells. A broken arc of storms
is expected to form after 18Z over western MO, moving northeastward
toward southern IA and western IL by 00Z. Veering winds with height
as well as favorable low-level buoyancy may support a brief tornado,
along with marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 03/22/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains, mainly from Wednesday
evening into the overnight.

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave trough should advance northeastward Wednesday from
the Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes. A separate, low-amplitude
shortwave trough should also move across parts of the southern
Plains Wednesday afternoon, in advance of the main upper trough/low
over northern Mexico and the Southwest that should eject across the
southern Plains late Wednesday evening/overnight. The primary
surface low is forecast to develop northeastward across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through the day. A trailing cold front
should stall across portions of central/south TX, before lifting
northward into northeast TX and the lower MS Valley as a warm front
by Wednesday evening. A convectively reinforced boundary should also
be in place near the central Gulf Coast at the start of the period
Wednesday morning. This boundary should also lift slowly northward
through the day.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning along the
central Gulf Coast region, mainly southern LA/MS/AL. This convection
may continue to pose an isolated/marginal severe threat through the
morning, but the better severe potential will probably tend to
remain offshore where greater low-level moisture and related
instability should be present. Additional thunderstorm development
across the lower MS Valley and southern Plains along the
northward-developing warm front appears unlikely through much of the
day, as a low-level inversion/cap should inhibit robust updraft
development.

As the primary upper trough/low moves eastward across the southern
High Plains late Wednesday, a southerly low-level jet should
gradually strengthen across parts of central/east TX into the lower
MS Valley. Elevated instability should increase Wednesday
evening/night across this region along/north of the surface warm
front, as somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates develop eastward
from the higher terrain of northern Mexico and west TX. Current
expectations are for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to form
near the ArkLaTex region Wednesday evening, and subsequently move
northeastward towards the Mid-South through the end of the period.
The presence of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 45-55+ kt of effective
bulk shear suggest a threat for mainly large hail. A tornado or two
and occasional strong/gusty winds cannot be ruled out either given
the strength of the low-level flow/shear. But, this tornado/wind
threat appears rather conditional at this time, and dependent on
sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based storms.

Farther west, at least weak instability should develop by early
Wednesday evening across parts of north-central TX into OK. A
secondary cold front will move eastward across the southern Plains
late in the wake of the low-amplitude shortwave trough. Isolated to
perhaps widely scattered storms may develop across parts of
central/north TX into OK during the evening, where strong deep-layer
shear and sufficient instability should support a threat for locally
strong to severe wind gusts and large hail. This isolated severe
threat may continue through the overnight hours into parts of east
TX, but uncertainty remains too high regarding surface-based storm
potential to include a larger Slight Risk area across central/east
TX at this time.

..Gleason.. 03/23/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 241730
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for an outbreak of severe storms including several
long-track strong tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and severe/destructive winds, will exist Thursday into Thursday evening
across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley,
and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough with attendant 70-100 kt+ mid-level jet will
eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS
Valley on Thursday, and continue over the OH Valley and lower Great
Lakes region Thursday night. At the surface, a weak low over
northeast TX at the beginning of the period Thursday morning is
expected to likewise develop northeastward to the mid MS Valley
through the day while deepening. A warm front attendant to this
cyclone will likely lift northward across the lower MS
Valley/Mid-South and TN Valley towards the lower OH Valley by
Thursday evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from
northeast TX into southern AR and northern MS/AL and TN. This
activity will likely be supported by a southerly low-level jet and
related warm advection. These storms should shift northward through
the morning, allowing for destabilization via diurnal heating to
occur across the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture with at
least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints (perhaps lower 70s), should
advect northward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, TN Valley,
and Southeast by Thursday afternoon. This increasing moisture,
coupled with diurnal heating, will likely support MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg developing over a fairly broad portion of these
regions.

A pronounced low-level jet (50-60+ kt) will overlie much of this
region as well, as large-scale ascent from the ejecting shortwave
trough overspreads the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity. Strongly
veering and strengthening wind profiles from the surface through mid
levels will support supercells. 0-1 km SRH along/south of the
surface warm front will likely reach 300-500 m2/s2, and low-level
mesocyclones capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes
appear likely with any supercells that can form. Scattered large
hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in diameter, and
severe/destructive winds also appear probable, both with supercells
and any bowing line segments that can develop. At this time, the
best potential for strong tornadoes appears to extend from parts of central/northern MS into western/middle TN and central/northern AL,
mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as storms move generally
northeastward. Concern does exist regarding the effect of storms
forming during the morning on the development of instability, and
potential for destructive interference from too many storms
developing across the warm sector at the same time. Still, given the
very favorable environment forecast across this region and the
potential for numerous supercells, an upgrade to High Risk for
multiple strong to potentially violent, long-track tornadoes may be
needed in a later outlook update.

...Ohio Valley...
Fairly widespread precipitation should occur over a majority of the
lower OH Valley through the day. This should temper diurnal
destabilization to some degree, but weak instability will probably
still develop along/east of the surface low and northward-moving
warm front. At least an isolated severe threat may develop late
Thursday afternoon into the evening as the southerly low-level jet
strengthens over this region and low-level moisture increases. The
potential for a low-topped line of storms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will exist given the strength of
the low-level flow and related shear. These storms will likely be
tied to a cold front as it tracks northeastward through the evening
and overnight hours.

..Gleason.. 03/24/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible late Friday afternoon
into early evening over a portion of north central and northeast
Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Other strong storms are possible from
the central and eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. Late Friday
night a few strong storms with hail might develop from northern
Mississippi into western Tennessee.

...North-central through northeast Kansas...

A weak surface low should develop across western KS by early evening
in association with a minor shortwave trough ejecting northeast
through the Central Plains during the afternoon. A warm front will
extend east from the low through northeast KS with a dryline/trough
southward through west central KS. Dewpoints in the upper 40s to
near 50 F will advect northwestward through the warm sector. Despite
the limited moisture, surface heating in presence of cold air aloft
with steep lapse rates will support up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE by late
afternoon or early evening. A few strong to severe storms might
develop by late afternoon along the warm front near the KS/NEB
border and farther west near the triple point. Strong vertical shear
will favor low-topped supercells capable of large hail, locally
strong gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. There is still some
lingering uncertainty regarding the mesoscale details, so will
maintain MRGL for this outlook. However, an upgrade to SLGT risk
might be warranted in future updates.

...Carolinas through southern Georgia...

A progressive shortwave trough will continue northeastward into the
Northeast States Friday. A strong low-level jet initially from
eastern NC into the Middle Atlantic will move offshore by mid day.
Tendency will be for the deeper forcing and stronger low-level winds
to lift northeast away from the moist warm sector present across the
Carolinas and Gulf Coast States. A corridor of modest instability
should evolve in pre-frontal warm sector in the presence of strong
deep shear. While a few storms with mainly a threat for locally
strong wind gusts might develop along the cold front during the day,
tendency for low-level winds to veer and weaken in the presence of
only shallow forcing suggests overall severe threat should remain
marginal.

....Lower Mississippi Valley region...

The front will stall along southern portions of the Gulf Coast
States during the day, but should begin to move back northward as a
warm front Friday evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Destabilization and isentropic ascent resulting from this process
might contribute to the development of mostly elevated storms later
Friday night or early Saturday. A few instances of hail might occur
with some of this activity.

..Dial.. 03/25/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 261726
SWODY2
SPC AC 261724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi
through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including
large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Potential for a strong
tornado exists from eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee. Other
severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with
isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats.

...Synopsis...
At upper levels, a southern stream shortwave trough will move
through the southern High Plains into central Texas. A northern
stream shortwave trough will amplify across the upper Midwest. These
features will eventually phase late in the period near the
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front in the Southeast
will advance northward before slowing/stalling in the vicinity of
the Tennessee Valley. A surface cyclone will deepen across Illinois
and Wisconsin and bring a cold front through the upper Midwest
southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys...
Moisture return will be ongoing at the start of the period and
through the day. With upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoint currently
along the Gulf Coast, it seems probable that mid to upper 60s
dewpoints will exist in the warm sector. Given potential for
elevated thunderstorms to develop along the northward advancing warm
front, there is some uncertainty as to how far north the effective
boundary will be. Even so, surface heating should support
boundary-layer destabilization with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the
afternoon. Effective shear will be strong at 50-65 kts. Organized
storms will be capable of all severe hazards. The greatest potential
for tornadoes and larger hail will exist with storms that develop on
the slowing warm front where more cellular development would be
possible. Later in the evening, the cold front will move through the
region and damaging wind gusts will become the primary threat,
though QLCS circulations will also be possible given adequate
low-level shear profiles.

...Midwest...
Mid-level cooling along with the northern stream trough will support
storm development along the cold front during the afternoon. Limited boundary-layer moisture will keep buoyancy more marginal with
northward extent, though 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Strong
deep-layer wind profiles and cold temperatures aloft will support
marginally severe hail and isolated damaging wind gusts.

...Carolinas...
A broad region of southerly flow will develop south of a stalled
front within the Carolina Piedmont region. Isolated storms may
develop along/near the boundary. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will bring potential for
marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Wind gust potential
will be maximized where parcels are surface based along and south of
the boundary.

..Wendt.. 03/26/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 270557
SWODY2
SPC AC 270556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas into the Mid
Atlantic Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will also
be possible from the central and southern Appalachians into parts of
the Southeast.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Southern and Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
At the surface, a cold front will advance quickly eastward across
the central and southern Appalachians as a surface low deepens in
southwest Ontario. By midday, the warm sector will be located across
all of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic where surface dewpoints are
forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. Convection is expected to
develop along much of the front in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
during the morning. Thunderstorm development will likely take place
as the storms move eastward into the central and southern
Appalachians. An isolated wind damage threat will be possible with
the stronger line segments as the storms move into the higher
elevations during the late morning into early afternoon.

Further to the east, moisture advection will take place across the
Mid Atlantic as a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet strengthens during the
day. Warming surface temperatures will result in a corridor of
instability from the eastern Carolinas northward into eastern
Virginia, where MLCAPE is expected to reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range. The storms in the central and southern Appalachian Mountains
should move quickly eastward across the Appalachian Foothills during
the mid afternoon, reaching the lower elevations near peak heating.

Forecast soundings along the instability axis from northern North
Carolina into eastern Virginia at 21Z on Sunday have nearly
unidirectional winds in the low to mid-levels with effective shear
in the 60 to 70 knot range. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are
forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km. This combined with about 40 kt of
flow at 1 kilometer above ground should be favorable for damaging
wind gusts. The fast moving nature of the storms could result in
wind gusts above 65 knots along the leading edge of the stronger
line segments. For this reason, a hatched significant wind contour
has been maintained from parts of central and northern North
Carolina northward into Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. In
addition, the stronger cells in the line could rotate and have an
isolated tornado threat. The line of storms is forecast to move
offshore during the mid to late evening.

...Southeast...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley today as a cold front advances southeastward into
the Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 60s F from parts of southern and central Mississippi
northeastward across much of Alabama and Georgia. As surface heating
warms, a narrow corridor of moderate instability may develop ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front
around midday as low-level convergence increases. Steep low-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal
wind damage and hail threat during the early to mid afternoon.

..Broyles.. 03/27/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 271726
SWODY2
SPC AC 271724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely along an advancing cold front
from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. The highest confidence in
damaging winds is in southeastern Virginia and vicinity. Farther
south and west, a few strong to severe storms are possible from
Mississippi into Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A potent upper-level shortwave trough will continue to intensify as
it moves out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
A surface cyclone will deepen in Ontario/Quebec with an attendant
cold front roughly along the Appalachian crest. This front will move
quickly eastward and serve as the focus for strong to severe storms
from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and portions of the
Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Low-level flow ahead of the cold front is forecast to increase to
40-60 kts in the lowest 1-2 km. This, along with the speed of the
front, should favor strong to severe wind gusts. Some gusts could be
in excess of 65 kts with the stronger storms. A relatively more
favorable corridor for wind damage appears probable along the NC/VA
border into southeast VA. Here, surface temperatures are expected to
the mid 70s F with mid 60s F dewpoints, supportive of 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic profiles in
the boundary-layer with around 7 C/km lapse rates by the afternoon.
Given the potential for a line segment to develop along the front in
this region, an Enhanced risk has been introduced. Low-level
hodographs are favorable for tornadoes, particularly if discrete
storms can develop ahead of the front.

Farther north into the Mid-Atlantic, low-level wind fields will be
stronger, but buoyancy will generally be less on account of
decreased boundary-layer moisture and greater cloud cover limiting
surface heating. However, 500+ J/kg MLCAPE will still exist will
still favor severe, convectively augmented surface gusts. Should
greater heating occur in pockets, closer to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could
develop and increase the overall threat for damaging winds.
Tornadoes will also be possible, but low-level thermodynamics and
storm-mode are more questionable this far north.

...Southeast...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible along the cold front
during the afternoon. Storm coverage and intensity becomes more
questionable as with southwestward extent as the main upper-level
forcing will be well removed from this region. However, residual
strong 850-500 mb winds on the southern flank of the departing
trough will support at least a marginal threat for damaging wind
gusts. The threat will be maximized with any organized line segments
that can develop. At this time it appears most likely to occur in
portions of northern GA and western SC.

..Wendt.. 03/27/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 280553
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Monday across southern and
central Florida. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move southward into the central Florida on Monday.
Daytime heating along with surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the
south of the front may result in enough instability for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. However, thunderstorm coverage
should remain very isolated and no severe weather is expected.
Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm
development is not forecast Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated storm or two may occur along the sea breeze boundary in
Florida. Weak forcing and warm temperatures aloft should keep
thunderstorm coverage below 10%.

A cold front will reach central/south Florida by early Monday. A
diurnal sea breeze storm could occur along the western Florida
coast, but warm air aloft keeps thunder probability below 10%. Later
in the period, the surface high will shift east and the boundary
will lift north. A subtle shortwave trough will move into southern
Georgia overnight. Weak ascent within the frontal zone should keep
thunderstorm chances minimal.

..Wendt.. 03/28/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 291806
SWODY2
SPC AC 291805

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Arklatex and lower
Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
few strong to severe storms are possible.

...Arklatex through lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...

A positive-tilt upper trough will amplify southeast through the
Plains and MS Valley region Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. The
cold front will move into the central and southern Plains and middle
MS Valley during the day, reaching the lower MS Valley and TN Valley
regions during the evening and overnight. A warm front will advance
northeast through the lower MS Valley during the day, and into the
TN Valley Tuesday night.

Modest destabilization will occur from eastern TX into the lower MS
Valley as richer low-level moisture advects northward in wake of a
warm front. A corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop during
the day, primarily within zone of isentropic ascent along and north
of the warm front across the lower MS Valley region. This activity
will spread northeast into the TN Valley Tuesday evening and
overnight. The stronger winds aloft accompanying the amplifying
upper trough will remain north of the warm sector, but will increase
Tuesday evening and overnight. A modest southwesterly low-level jet
will also shift east through the warm sector where vertical wind
profiles from evening into the overnight will become sufficient for
organized storms. However, current thinking is that most of the
warm-advection storms will remain slightly elevated along and north
of the warm front. Other storms will develop along the
southeast-advancing cold front and spread into the Arklatex region
during the evening where potential will exist for a few instances of
hail and strong wind gusts. At this time confidence is not high
enough for more than a MRGL risk category, but the area will
continue to be monitored for a possible SLGT risk in day 1 updates.

..Dial.. 03/29/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
portions of the Southeast, with damaging gusts the primary severe
threat. More isolated severe storms are also possible across parts
of the Mid Atlantic, with the severe threat potentially continuing
after dark.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will continue to amplify while progressing eastward
across the Ohio Valley towards the Atlantic coastline tomorrow
(Wednesday). During the late morning/early afternoon, a surface low
is expected to gradually develop in advance of the upper trough
across the central Appalachians and move northeastward towards lower
New England while an associated cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is
expected ahead of the aforementioned surface low across the lower
Hudson Valley and along the front extending into Texas. At the
moment, buoyancy appears to be greatest across portions of
Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, where the greatest coverage for thunderstorms and associated risk for severe is currently expected.
However, while buoyancy is weaker across portions of the Carolina
Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic, stronger dynamic forcing for ascent
and kinematic fields may promote at least isolated severe storm
development across this area as well.

...Portions of the Southeast U.S...
Stronger flow aloft and associated upper support is expected to lag
the surface cold front and remain roughly parallel to the baroclinic
zone, likely promoting linear convective structures along the front
forced primarily by low-level convergence. Nonetheless, deep
moisture (characterized by upper 60s F dewpoints), and the presence
of a diurnally heated/mixed boundary layer promoting 7.5 C/km
low-level lapse rates are expected to foster 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
by late morning/early afternoon. The available instability and mixed
boundary layer should support the potential for organized damaging
gusts, with a Slight risk introduced. 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates
and linear forcing suggest that marginally severe hail is possible,
albeit on a more isolated basis. Lastly, a few CAMS have hinted at
one or two discrete cells initiating ahead of the front. Should mature/sustained pre-frontal convection develop, enough low-level
speed and directional shear will be present to support brief,
transient rotation and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

...Portions of the Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic...
By mid afternoon extending into the evening hours, scattered
thunderstorm development is expected within a confluence zone ahead
of the approaching surface low. Compared to areas farther southwest,
upper flow will be more perpendicular to the cold front/surface lee
troughing, with deep-layer ascent overspreading the area. A 30-40 kt
low-level jet will also be in place, fostering up to 150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH, suggesting that storm organization and transient
low-level rotation is possible. However, instability is expected to
be marginal despite mid 60s F dewpoints. Mediocre low and mid-level
lapse rates currently support tall-skinny MLCAPE profiles,
suggesting that the overall severe threat should be relatively
localized/brief in nature. However, any storm that can manage to
become organized/sustained may pose a threat for damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/30/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 311705
SWODY2
SPC AC 311703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula Thursday. Severe weather appears unlikely across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as ridging aloft
builds into the central U.S and a mid-level shortwave trough
impinges on the Desert Southwest tomorrow. The departure of the East
Coast trough and approach of the central U.S. ridge will foster
widespread surface high pressure and large-scale tropospheric
descent behind a cold front poised to cross the Florida Peninsula.
As such, widespread stable conditions will limit thunder potential
in the post-frontal environment across much of the CONUS. Ahead of
the front, isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are
expected during the afternoon and early evening hours across
portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE residing atop 8 C/km lapse rates in the sfc-850 mb layer
suggests that thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport
may promote modestly gusty conditions. A damaging gust cannot be
completely ruled out, though the threat appears too conditional to
delineate with severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 03/31/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 011730
SWODY2
SPC AC 011728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will move to the
western Atlantic on Friday. In its wake, upper ridging will prevail
across much of the western and central states. At the surface, high
pressure will dominate the majority of the CONUS. A weak shortwave
trough should move slowly eastward across the Southwest through the
period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of this region
during the afternoon, with additional convection possible for parts
of the southern High Plains Friday evening and overnight. Low-level
moisture is expected to remain very limited across these areas.

..Gleason.. 04/01/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 020520
SWODY2
SPC AC 020519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Fri Apr 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level trough initially near the NM/TX/Mexico border will
move east-southeast and weaken as it nears the lower Rio Grande
Valley by daybreak Sunday. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
will reside across the southern High Plains atop lower 40s to lower
50s F dewpoints. Weak instability will maximize during the late
afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are possible from southeast NM
to the Edwards Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms may continue into
the overnight into parts of the TX Hill Country and Rio Grande
Valley. Storm organization is not expected largely due to weak
instability.

Elsewhere, mid-level ridging will lead to quiet conditions for
thunderstorms across the remaining contiguous United States.

..Smith.. 04/02/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 030524
SWODY2
SPC AC 030522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A flattened mid-level ridge will be centered over the central Great
Plains into the Upper Midwest ahead of an amplifying mid-level
trough over the Pacific Northwest. In the low levels, a broad area
of low pressure will develop over the northern Great Plains to the
southeast of a southward-moving cold front over the northern
Rockies/northern High Plains. Southerly flow will advect upper 40s
dewpoints into parts of NE. Although strong heating and a well
mixed boundary layer will weaken the cap by late afternoon, little
in the way of forcing for ascent will greatly limit thunderstorm
coverage if convective initiation occurs. The possibility for
isolated elevated thunderstorms or a small thunderstorm cluster will
extend from parts of NE northeastward into the Upper Midwest
primarily during the evening into the overnight. This activity will
probably remain disorganized despite very steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates via an elevated mixed layer.

..Smith.. 04/03/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 031654
SWODY2
SPC AC 031652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude mid/upper ridge centered over the northern/central
Plains will slowly shift eastward toward the Midwest/upper Great
Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. This will occur as a shortwave
upper trough develops southeastward across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, broad low
pressure/lee trough will develop over portions of the
northern/central High Plains while strong high pressure persists
over the southeastern U.S.

Southerly low level flow will allow mid 40s to low 50s surface
dewpoints to spread northward beneath the upper ridge into portions
of the mid/lower MO Valley and central/southern Plains vicinity.
Very steep midlevel lapse rate will spread eastward into the
central/northern Plains vicinity, resulting in weak MLCAPE during
the afternoon and evening. However, weak forcing and a capping
inversion will likely limit convective development for much of the
day. By evening, weak height falls and a developing low over NE may
be sufficient for isolated high-based thunderstorm development from
far southeast CO/western KS/eastern NE. This activity is expected to
remain unorganized and sub-severe, though may continue into the
overnight hours into parts of IA/southern MN/southwest WI.

Additional thunderstorms could develop during peak heating closer to
higher terrain into northeast NM and near the Davis Mountains in
southwest TX. This activity will be diurnally driven and should
dissipate quickly with sunset.

..Leitman.. 04/03/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 040519
SWODY2
SPC AC 040517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the upper Mississippi Valley and parts of northwest Texas on Monday.

...Synopsis...
In the mid to upper levels, a disturbance will glance the Upper
Midwest as it moves east from Saskatchewan to western Ontario to the
north of a flattened mid-level ridge over the MS Valley. Farther
west, a potent mid-level trough will move southeast from the Pacific
Northwest to the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. In the low
levels, a broad area of low pressure centered over SD with a southward-extending lee trough will consolidate to a developing
surface cyclone along the KS/CO border by Monday night as a cold
front pushes southward over the Upper Midwest and northern Great
Plains.

...Upper MS Valley...
Model guidance is beginning to converge on a scenario of
thunderstorm development initially beginning during the afternoon
(perhaps over northeast SD or west-central MN) as a cold front
pushes southeast. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures coupled
with low to mid 50s F dewpoints are yielding around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. A cluster of thunderstorms will probably evolve near the
front during the late afternoon/early evening and move
east-southeast during the overnight hours. Isolated large
hail/damaging gusts are the primary hazards before this activity
weakens as it moves beyond the instability axis.

...TX Panhandle/South Plains...
Strong heating is forecast on Monday as the western edge of low 50s
deg F dewpoints contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by peak
heating. Models are indicating appreciable CINH remaining,
especially in areas slightly east and removed from the dryline.
However, a more deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop
farther west on the Caprock escarpment with localized erosion of the
remaining cap and convective initiation a possibility. Although
coarser deterministic models are void of a precip signal thus far,
recent convection allowing models are showing a couple of storms
(potentially a supercell or two) developing within a zone of 700 mb
moistening by the EC model with good run-to-run consistency. The
localized severe risk will likely diminish by 02 UTC as CINH
increases.

...Southeast ID into northern UT...
Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent during the afternoon will
likely lead to convective showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing near the southeastward-moving cold front. Despite
relatively low moisture content, very steep low to mid-level lapse
rates coupled with strong frontal forcing will probably result in
localized strong gusts near convection. If instability appears
marginally higher, a 5-percent wind risk may be introduced in later
outlook cycles.

..Smith.. 04/04/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 041657
SWODY2
SPC AC 041656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the upper Mississippi Valley into Nebraska, and parts of northwest
Texas on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A compact upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces
and international border vicinity will develop eastward to western
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. A second upper
shortwave trough will dig south/southeast from the Pacific Northwest
into the Great Basin/northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad area
of low pressure/surface troughing will develop from MN southwestward
through eastern SD/NE and western KS, while a dryline extends
southwestward across the OK/TX Panhandle and eastern NM vicinity.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected along the surface
trough/cold front by late afternoon across parts of MN/SD/NE, some
of which could be strong to severe. A more conditional severe threat
is possible near the dryline across parts of northwest TX.

...Upper Midwest/Central Plains vicinity...

Southerly low level flow will transport 50s F surface dewpoints
northward across the mid/upper MS and MO Valley vicinity ahead of
the southeastward advancing cold front. Strong CINH will preclude
thunderstorm development for much of the day. However, strong
heating will result in a well-mixed boundary layer and eroding cap
by peak heating. 50s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30-40 kt effective
shear. As upper forcing increases with the approach of the shortwave
trough in tandem with low level frontal forcing, thunderstorms are
expected to develop by late afternoon from north-central MN into
eastern SD. Low level flow below 700 mb will remain rather weak, and
while an isolated supercell is possible, convection will likely
develop into clusters or line segments along the cold front. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be the main concern with this activity as
it shifts east/southeast into western WI/northern IA during the
evening.

A more conditional severe threat will develop southwestward along
the surface trough/cold front into parts of central/eastern NE.
Forcing will be much weaker here, and a stronger cap will be in
place. Nevertheless, a couple of high-based and/or elevated
supercells could develop during peak heating as inhibition becomes
weaker. Very steep lapse rates will contribute to 2000-2500 MLCAPE
amid supercell wind profiles. A storm or two could produce isolated
large hail and perhaps locally strong downburst winds for a short
time during the late afternoon/early evening.

...Northwest TX...

A conditional threat for a severe storm or two will exist near the
dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. Low level moisture
will remain unimpressive, with dewpoints generally from the upper
40s to low 50s. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will promote
MLCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg amid supercell wind profiles.
Considerable CINH will prevent convective development across much of
the region, but strong heating resulting in a well-mixed boundary
layer could result in a narrow corridor along the dryline where a
storm or two could develop. Isolated large hail and strong wind
gusts could accompany any organized storm that develops in this
corridor.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 051704
SWODY2
SPC AC 051703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the central and
eastern Kansas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Hail and strong
gusts will be the main hazards associated with this activity.

...Synopsis...

A compact upper low and its attendant trough will shift east from
the Great Basin to the central/southern Plains on Tuesday. A surface
low will deepen over western KS and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity
through the first half of the forecast period. This area of low
pressure will become more elongated overnight from mid-MO Valley
into the southern Plains as a cold front shifts east/southeast
across the central/southern Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains vicinity...

Strong CINH will preclude thunderstorm initiation through late
afternoon. As the surface low deepens and the upper low begins to
eject eastward, moderate southerly low level flow will transport
mid-50s to low 60s dewpoints northward across the southern/central
Plains and mid-MO/mid-upper MS Valleys. A dryline will extend
southward from the surface low to the OK/TX border and then
southwestward into southwest TX. While strong heating is forecast
near the dryline across TX, a stout cap is expected to remain in
place and little development along the dryline is expected. More
likely, convective initiation will occur during the late
afternoon/early evening closer to the surface low as a cold front
drops southeastward and overtakes the dryline across west-central
KS. Continued low level moistening beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates will result in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid effective shear
greater than 30 kt. Organized clusters and line segments along the east/southeastward advancing cold front will mainly pose a threat
for large hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts. Convection may
remain somewhat elevated, and forecast soundings are persistent in
maintaining at least weak near-surface CINH. This should temper the
tornado threat, despite favorable low level shear/enlarged 0-3km
hodographs.

Further north across the mid-MO Valley vicinity, instability will be
weaker. However, clusters of thunderstorms could produce near-severe
hail and gusty winds.

...Delmarva/Chesapeake Vicinity...

Moderate northwesterly deep layer flow is forecast across the region
as a strong upper low moves offshore the Northeast coast and an
upper ridge slides slowly eastward across the Midwest. Surface
dewpoints are forecast to increase into the upper 40s and low 50s
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, resulting in weak instability
during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, forecast soundings
show a well-mixed boundary layer developing as temperatures warm
into the 70s. While severe storms are not expected given weak
instability, a couple of convective showers and/or storms could
produce locally strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 061734
SWODY2
SPC AC 061732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the lower
Mississippi Valley with other isolated severe storms possible
farther north over the middle Mississippi Valley.

...Lower Mississippi Valley region...

Shortwave trough now moving through the central Rockies will
continue east southeast through the southern Plains and lower to mid
MS Valley Wednesday. Partially modified Gulf Air with low to mid 60s
F dewpoints will advect northward along a strengthening southerly
low-level jet, contributing to a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Widespread low clouds are expected in the warm sector which will
limit boundary layer destabilization to some degree. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop by mid day along and just ahead of a Pacific
cold front accompanying the shortwave trough from central MO
southward through AR and northeast TX. Mixed storm modes are
expected, and vertical wind profiles with 50+ kt effective bulk
shear will support the potential for organized storms with both line
segments and some supercell structures. Hodograph size will increase
as the low-level jet strengthens with up to 300 m2/s2 storm relative
helicity supportive of low-level mesocyclones and potential for a
few tornadoes, especially across the lower MS Valley during the
afternoon and early evening. However, the degree and extent of the
tornado threat will depend on whether or not sufficient boundary
layer destabilization can occur given likelihood of widespread low
clouds in warms sector where forecast soundings exhibit poor
low-level lapse rates. Some severe threat, mainly in the form of
damaging wind will continue into the overnight across a portion of
the lower MS Valley. An enhanced risk for severe storms might be
introduced for a portion of this region in day 1 updates.

...Middle MS Valley...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through the
morning across parts of MO/IA and thereby limit greater instability
from developing over the area. However, a rejuvenation to storms is
expected during the afternoon near the surface low and possibly
farther east ahead of residual decaying convection near the MS
River. Uncertainty largely related to instability will seemingly
limit the overall severe threat. Nonetheless, weak instability
coupled with deep-layer shear sufficient for organized thunderstorms
will conditionally support a marginal severe risk for storms during
the day. Activity will likely weaken by the early evening.

..Dial.. 04/06/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 081733
SWODY2
SPC AC 081731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southeastern
Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast States Friday through Friday night. This may include the
development of one or two organized thunderstorm clusters, with the
potential to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts. Large, damaging
hail and a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid-level low over the middle Missouri Valley is already in
the process of migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley.
This should continue through Friday and Friday night, as blocking
remains prominent downstream within the downstream flow, and another
vigorous upstream short wave (emerging from the northern
mid-latitude Pacific), continues inland, across the Rockies into the
Plains.

The lead impulse and associated surface cyclone are forecast to
continue to weaken, while migrating across and northeast of the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late Friday night. The cold
front trailing the cyclone currently curves from the Upper Midwest
through the lower Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, and is already
becoming increasingly diffuse. As this continues, models suggest
considerable boundary-layer moistening will occur into and through
this period across a broad area of the southeastern Great Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley. It appears that this will coincide with
the northeastward advection of elevated mixed-layer air, on the
southwestern periphery of the departing mid-level troughing, and
ahead of a perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude or
subtropical eastern Pacific.

Models indicate that this southern perturbation will accelerate
across Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley by late Friday night,
within west-northwesterly to westerly flow in advance of the digging
short wave of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin. It appears that
associated forcing for ascent will contribute to new surface
cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley/Mid South vicinity by 12Z Saturday.

...Southeastern Great Plains into central Gulf States...
While there appears reasonable model consensus on the general
large-scale pattern evolution, considerable spread does exist
concerning the synoptic and, particularly, the sub-synoptic
developments for this period. Given moistening low-levels in the
presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates, it does appear that
substantial mixed-layer CAPE could develop Friday, in the presence
of strong vertical shear. This provides support for the risk of
severe storm development, though the extent, focus/details remain
unclear at the present time. Based on the latest guidance, there
does appear potential for the evolution of multiple clusters of
severe storms Friday and Friday night, with isolated to widely
scattered discrete supercell development also possible.

There does appear a consistent signal in the model output that
large-scale ascent along a strengthening mid-level baroclinic zone
may provide support for increasing thunderstorm development across
the Ark-La-Tex vicinity through southern Arkansas by mid day Friday.
As the boundary-layer destabilizes, there appears potential for
this activity to evolve into an intensifying and organizing
mesoscale convection system which will tend to advect/propagate
eastward across the north central Mississippi/Alabama vicinity
before weakening Friday evening.

The approach of the southern mid-latitude/subtropical Pacific
impulse may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development upstream,
along the trailing convective outflow, by Friday evening. This may
evolve into another organizing cluster of severe storms, which will
probably tend to develop east-southeastward across the lower
Mississippi Valley through early Saturday.

Given the steep mid-level lapse rates, sizable CAPE and strong
shear, stronger initial storm development may be accompanied by the
risk for large, damaging hail, before activity grows upscale with
damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent hazard, along with
the possibility of a few tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 04/08/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 100423
SWODY2
SPC AC 100422

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Florida
Peninsula.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the Midwest and its attendant trough extending
southeastward through the southeast U.S. will pivot northeast on
Sunday. The upper low will become oriented over the lower Great
Lakes by Monday morning, while the associated trough extends along
the Mid-Atlantic coast and offshore the southeastern U.S. coast.
This should maintain moderate west/southwesterly flow from the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians southward through Florida for much
of the period. A surface low stacked beneath the upper low over the
Great Lakes will not move much, but instead weaken through the
period. A cold front will extend from western PA along the
Appalachians and into southeast AL and then just offshore from
south-central LA. While the southern most segment of the front will
stall along the central Gulf coast, much of the front should shift
eastward, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic cost and into northern
Florida by Monday morning.

A mature MCS/QLCS is forecast to be ongoing across parts of northern
Florida Sunday morning. Some severe threat could persist with this
system as it tracks southeastward across the Florida Peninsula
through the day.

...Florida...

Most guidance has a mature MCS/QLCS over northern FL at the
beginning of the period, and the evolution of the severe threat on
Sunday will depend on where exactly this activity is located during
the morning, and specifically how far south any outflow may develop
early in the period. This could impact how much CINH exists and how
much recovery can occur through peak heating. Nevertheless, mid to
upper 60s dewpoints will be in place, and at least weak
destabilization should occur amid 35-45 kt effective shear. This
should be sufficient to support at least a low-end threat for
locally damaging gusts and hail.

...Delmarva into parts of eastern PA...

Modest low level moisture is expected to extend northward into the
Chesapeake vicinity, with mid 50s to near 60 F surface dewpoints
forecast. Stronger forcing closer to the surface and upper lows,
along with a better-defined cold front surging eastward should
provide focus of isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Instability is currently forecast to remain weak,
generally less than 1000 J/kg, along with modest vertical shear.
Midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and a deeply mixed boundary layer
resulting in steep low level lapse rates also will overspread the
region. Some locally gusty winds or small hail could accompany any
stronger cells. However, weak low level winds and overall modest thermodynamic/kinematic environment will preclude severe
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 101712
SWODY2
SPC AC 101710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across the
central Florida Peninsula and isolated strong to severe storms are
possible in portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes on
Sunday. At the surface, a cyclone will occlude through the day as it
moves from northern Illinois to southern Ontario through the period.
At the beginning of the period, an occluded front will extend from
the surface low in northern Illinois to western Pennsylvania. A cold
front will extend from this occluded front southward to the Gulf
Coast States.

...Florida...
An MCS should be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the
Florida Panhandle into the northeastern Gulf as a result of
increasing isentropic ascent from a strengthening low-level jet.
This activity is expected to mature during the morning hours as it
moves into the central Florida peninsula. Extensive cloud cover will
likely limit surface heating, but temperatures in the low 70s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s should be adequate for moderate
instability, especially given the moderate mid-level lapse rates.
The greatest severe threat will likely be during the morning hours
when the most intense convection is expected to be oriented
north/south as it crosses central Florida. Through time, the
convection is expected to become parallel to the deep-layer flow and
thus the outflow is likely to outrun the convection to the south.
This may limit the overall severe threat by mid to late afternoon as
the MCS sags south across the Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary hazard with this activity.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Modest low-level moisture is expected to surge northward ahead of a
cold front which will move through the Mid-Atlantic through the day.
This cold front will serve as the primary focus for isolated to
scattered strong to severe storm development during the afternoon
and evening hours on Sunday. Moderate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg
is expected across the Carolinas into Virginia ahead of this storm
activity Sunday afternoon. Farther north, instability is expected to
be weaker but sufficient for a marginal damaging wind threat.
Effective shear of 35 to 45 knots across the warm sector will aid in
storm organization as it moves east-northeastward with damaging
winds as the primary threat. Large hail will be a greater threat
from Maryland southward where greater instability is forecast.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 04/10/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 110431
SWODY2
SPC AC 110430

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A pair of upper level lows will migrate eastward across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Monday. Low-amplitude westerly flow will otherwise spread across the
south-central and southeastern states while a shortwave trough
develops southward across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface,
high pressure will develop southward across the Plains, with a cold
front dropping south/southeast across TX and the Lower MS Valley.
Isolated showers and elevated thunderstorms could accompany the cold
front, but overall severe potential appears low.

...Western TX/Middle Rio Grande vicinity...

While mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints will be in place ahead of
the aforementioned cold front across TX and the Sabine Valley,
considerable inhibition will limit severe potential. Some guidance
suggests a conditional threat for an isolated strong to severe storm
could develop near the Rio Grande in the vicinity of Del Rio, during
the late afternoon/evening in moist upslope flow. However,
confidence in this scenario is low with quite a bit of variability
among forecast guidance. The overall limited nature of the threat in
both space and time precludes Marginal risk probabilities at this
time.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 111725
SWODY2
SPC AC 111724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Hill Country
on Monday with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
A few areas of mid-level low pressure will be present across the
northern Plains and Great Lakes Monday morning. These low pressure
areas will shift eastward/southeastward through the day. A strong
mid-level jet will dive southward along the West Coast through the
day Monday and act to amplify the western CONUS trough. In addition,
a weak shortwave is expected to eject from this broader trough
Monday afternoon across portions of Texas. At the surface, a cold
front will sink southward across Texas through the day. Some severe
storms may form on this cold front Monday afternoon/evening with a
threat for large hail and severe wind.

...Texas Hill Country...
Low-level flow off the Gulf of Mexico will transport moisture
northwestward Monday morning and afternoon. Surface dewpoints are
expected to increase to the low to mid 60s by mid to late afternoon
with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. This will likely result in
2000+ MLCAPE ahead of a southward moving cold front. A weak
shortwave/height falls aloft combined with convergence along this
front may provide enough forcing for a few strong to severe storms
Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate to strong instability combined
with around 50 knots of effective shear will provide an environment
favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail and
damaging winds. The southward sagging nature of the cold front could
undercut the storms and limit storm longevity, especially on the
northern portions of the marginal risk, but steep mid-level lapse
rates would still support elevated convection and a hail threat.
Additional storms may form in an upslope regime near Del Rio and
move off the terrain for a few hours in the evening before
encountering a capped airmass with eastern extent. Questionable
storm coverage is the primary mitigating factor to a higher risk
category at this time, but if more storms appear likely (such as
suggested by the 12Z HRRR and NSSL WRF), a slight risk may be
warranted in later outlooks.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 04/11/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 131746
SWODY2
SPC AC 131745

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ...SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE....SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

CORRECTED GRAPHIC DISCREPANCY IN GULF COASTAL VICINITY

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact western and central portions of the
Gulf coastal plain, as well as southern portions of the Mid Atlantic
Coast states, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that a blocking mid-level high will continue to
develop and become more prominent during this period, centered
across British Columbia. This will contribute to the maintenance of
a split flow across much of North America into the western Atlantic,
with several broad, embedded cyclonic circulations likely to
persist.

At mid-levels, there may be little movement to one of these lows
centered across the Great Basin, to the southeast of the building
high. In response to a short wave trough digging across the
Canadian Prairies, to the east of the high, a downstream low may
slowly shift southeast of the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes
region, with some southeastward development of another low also
possible across the western Atlantic. To the south and southwest of
the eastern perturbations, models indicate that there may be some
suppression of mid-level subtropical ridging, with flow tending to
veer from westerly to west-northwesterly across the north central
through eastern Gulf coast vicinity.

Initially progressing into or approaching the Appalachians and Mid
South/Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, a cold front is
forecast to advance into the Southeast and through the lower
Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf coast region by the end of the
period. There has already been a preceding southward surge of
colder air through much of central and southwest Texas, which likely
will be reinforced. A preceding convectively generated or enhanced
surface boundary appears likely to persist across parts of the upper
Texas coastal plain and southern Louisiana into the north central
Gulf of Mexico.

...Gulf coastal plain...
The most substantive boundary-layer destabilization Wednesday is
expected to be confined to pre-cold frontal areas along and to the
southwest of the convective boundary. Although smaller scale
developments remain unclear due to model spread, which could impact
the magnitude of this destabilization, it appears that low/mid-level
warm advection along and north of the convective boundary could
contribute to thunderstorm development across the upper Texas
coastal plain into southern Louisiana by early Wednesday. It
appears that this will occur ahead of a weak perturbation migrating
around the periphery of the subtropical ridging, and could coincide
with increasing boundary-layer destabilization.

Depending upon the timing, it is possible that increasing inflow of
moderately large CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg), in the presence of
modestly sheared 30-40 kt westerly to northwesterly mean flow, could
become conducive to the evolution of an organized cluster of storms
which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. As this activity
tends to propagate offshore, an upstream perturbation may contribute
similar storm development near the trailing outflow and cold front intersection, near upper Texas coastal areas later Wednesday
afternoon or evening.

...Southern Mid Atlantic Coast region...
Models suggest that the warm sector of a weak developing surface
low, along the front to the east of the southern Appalachians, could
become conducive to vigorous thunderstorm development late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Although boundary-layer moisture might be
fairly modest, deep boundary-layer mixing, in the presence of
strengthening vertical shear, might contribute an environment
supportive of thunderstorms capable of producing small hail and
potentially damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 04/13/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 141729
SWODY2
SPC AC 141727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from west-central
Texas eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Locally strong gusts
and hail will be the main hazards with this activity.

...Synopsis...
Satellite imagery currently shows two well-defined upper lows, one
over the western Great Basin and the other over the Upper Great
Lakes. Expectation is for these lows to gradually move eastward
today, beginning the Day 2 Period (i.e. 12Z Thursday) centered over
the central Great Basin and southwestern Quebec. Surface low
associated with the eastern upper low will likely be centered just
off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday, with an associated cold
front extending southwestward from this low through another low off
the MS/AL coast and into South Texas. Central and eastern portions
of this front will likely remain progressive throughout the day
before stalling Thursday evening. In contrast, the western portion
of the front over the western Gulf and south TX will likely remain
stationary throughout the day before returning northward as a warm
front Thursday evening through Friday morning.

...Central Gulf Coast through FL Panhandle/Northern FL...
This is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
early Thursday morning, particularly given the expectation for
augmentation of this boundary by storm outflow. Even so, modest
warm-air advection is anticipated across this boundary, contributing
to scattered thunderstorms from southern LA into the western FL
Panhandle early Thursday morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates will
exist over the region, as will moderate westerly flow aloft.
Resulting combination of vertical shear and buoyancy could result in
a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging downburst
winds. Elevated storm character should preclude any tornado threat.

Surface-based storms are possible along the front Thursday afternoon
as it traverses the northern FL Peninsula. Warm temperatures aloft
and resulting convective inhibition will likely temper updraft
strength within most storms. However, vertical shear will remain
strong enough to support rotation/organization of a few updrafts,
with large hail and/or damaging gusts possible with these more
robust embedded storms.

...West-Central TX to the Middle/Upper TX Coast...
A stalled frontal boundary will likely be in place from just off the
southeast TX coast back westward through South TX, eventually
intersecting lee troughing off the higher terrain of the southern
High Plains and northeast Mexico. Deepening of this lee troughing is anticipated throughout the day, with surface southeasterly winds
strengthening in tandem. More southerly low-level flow will also
increase at the same time. Resulting increase in isentropic ascent
will augment the ascent attendant to a subtle shortwave through
expected to move across TX. All of these factors will contribute to
showers and thunderstorms across much of the southern Plains. Given
the steep lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear, a few
stronger storms are possible, with large hail as the primary severe
risk.

Guidance is beginning to hint at a corridor of modestly higher
severe potential, from central TX into southeast TX, where storms
may begin to encounter slightly higher dewpoints and the northward
moving warm front. However, uncertainty regarding frontal position
and storm timing remains too high to delineate higher probabilities
within this corridor with this forecast.

Lastly, conditional risk of supercells capable of large hail exists
near the Del Rio vicinity with any storms that can develop over the
higher terrain of northeast Mexico and then move eastward.

..Mosier.. 04/14/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 161709
SWODY2
SPC AC 161708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FL..AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible Saturday across
parts of the central Gulf Coast into southern Georgia. A few
instances of large hail may also occur Saturday morning across deep
south Texas.

...Synopsis...
Upper trough with a strong positive tilt is forecast to stretch from
the Upper Midwest through central CA early Saturday morning.
Moderate mid-level flow will stretch from the southern Plains
through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic throughout period,
reinforced by several shortwave trough embedded within the larger
parent upper trough. All of these shortwaves will be displaced north
or west of the better low-level moisture, with the exception of a
progressive, low-amplitude shortwave which may move through the
southern Plains and Lower MS Valley Saturday afternoon through early
Sunday morning.

At the surface, a low will likely be centered off the southeast
TX/southwest LA coast with a cold front extending from it back
southwestward over the far northwest Gulf. A stationary front is
also expected to extend eastward from the low through the northern
FL Peninsula. The surface low is forecast to progress eastward along
this stationary boundary throughout the day, ending the period
centered just off the SC Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast to the FL Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula...
Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the day over
the central Gulf Coast as isentropic ascent persists across the
stationary front. This isentropic ascent will be augmented in the
late afternoon and evening by lift attendant to the progressive,
low-amplitude shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Mid-level
lapse rates will be relatively weak, limiting overall buoyancy, but
mid-level flow will remain strong, contributing to enough vertical
shear for isolated strong to severe storms. Primary threat will be
hail, although a damaging wind gust or two may be able to penetrate
the relatively shallow low-level stability. The eastward moving
surface low could also provide an area of localized mesoscale ascent
and the potential for a few stronger updrafts.

Farther east across central/eastern FL Panhandle and the northern FL
Peninsula, storms may form closer to the stationary front during the
afternoon and evening. Instability will also be slightly higher in
this area due to the likelihood of a bit more heating. Consequently,
the increased potential for surface-based (or near-surface-based)
storms suggests damaging wind gusts will be in the primary threat.
Isolated hail and perhaps even a brief tornado are also possible.

...Deep South Texas...
A cold front will be progressing quickly southward across deep south
TX Saturday morning. Low-level upslope flow over the mountains of
adjacent northern Mexico may encourage a couple of elevated
supercells to form and cross into this region early Saturday
morning. Even though boundary-layer instability will
quickly decrease behind the front, enough low-level moisture and
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should still support around
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This instability coupled with strong shear
aloft may foster isolated large hail with any supercell that can
persist for a few hours. Storms should weaken by mid morning as the
elevated instability diminishes.

..Mosier.. 04/16/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 170547
SWODY2
SPC AC 170545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Sunday across parts of
the northern/central Florida Peninsula, with gusty winds and hail
the main threats.

...Northern/Central Florida Peninsula...
A front is forecast to move very slowly southward across the
northern/central FL Peninsula on Sunday, as low/mid-level flow
should remain generally parallel to this surface boundary. Even so,
it appears that there may be enough weak low-level convergence along
the front to support some surface-based storms across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula, mainly Sunday afternoon. Surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s south of the front, combined with
modest diurnal heating and cool temperatures aloft, should foster
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by the afternoon. Although low-level
winds are expected to remain modest, west-southwesterly flow will
likely strengthen to around 40-50 kt at mid levels. Similar values
of effective bulk shear should support organization with any
convection that can develop along/south of the front. With cool
mid-level temperatures supporting modestly steepened lapse rates
aloft, isolated instances of large hail may occur. Strong/gusty
downdraft winds also appear possible if storms can congeal into a
small cluster. The primary limiting factors that should keep the
overall severe threat isolated/marginal are the lack of obvious
large-scale ascent aloft and weak low-level convergence along the
front.

..Gleason.. 04/17/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 171724
SWODY2
SPC AC 171723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Sunday across parts of
the northern/central Florida Peninsula, with gusty winds and hail
the main threats.

...Northern/central Florida Peninsula...
A frontal boundary is expected to persist across some portion of the central/northern FL Peninsula on Sunday. Periodic convection and
attendant outflow near/north of the front may tend to move the
boundary gradually southward during the day. Along and south of the
front, moisture and heating will be sufficient for the development
of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) by early afternoon. A capping
inversion and generally weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit surface-based convection south of the boundary, but a few stronger
storms will be possible along and just north of the boundary,
especially during the afternoon and evening. Effective shear of
35-50 kt will favor some potential for hail with the strongest
storms, while locally damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out,
especially with any upscale-growing clusters that can develop.

..Dean.. 04/17/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 180527
SWODY2
SPC AC 180525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Hail and strong/gusty winds should be the main threats.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
A surface front is forecast to overlie the central FL Peninsula on
Monday. This boundary should advance slowly southward through the
day. Convection will probably be ongoing Monday morning along and
north of the front. Even though large-scale forcing is expected to
remain nebulous, sufficient low-level convergence along the front
should provide a focus for additional surface-based storm
development by Monday afternoon. This appears most probable across
parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula, where upper 60s to low
70s surface dewpoints should be in place. The rich low-level
moisture coupled with diurnal heating and cool mid-level
temperatures (around -10C at 500 mb) should support MLCAPE reaching
about 1500-2000 J/kg Monday afternoon.

The stronger flow associated with a belt of enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds should remain mostly to the north of the
surface front. Still, about 30-40 kt of mid-level winds should
overlap the front and warm sector, which will provide enough
deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Isolated
large hail and strong/gusty winds should be the main threats with
any storms that can form along/south of the boundary across the central/southern FL Peninsula through the day. Weak convergence
along the front with generally parallel flow aloft will probably
limit overall storm coverage, and the severe threat should remain
fairly isolated.

...Eastern North Carolina and Far Southeastern Virginia...
Isolated to scattered storms may form by late Monday morning across
this region as a shortwave trough moves eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic. Low-level moisture ahead of this feature will likely
remain fairly limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s.
If enough boundary-layer instability can develop ahead of the
storms, then strong/gusty downdraft winds might occur. However,
there is currently too much uncertainty regarding the degree of
low-level moisture and sufficient destabilization to include low
severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 04/18/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Hail and strong/gusty winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A pair of mid-level vorticity maxima, located over the Ozarks and
lower MO Valley midday Sunday, will transition to a single mid-level
trough and move from the southern Appalachians to the western
Atlantic during the day-2 period. A weak surface low in response to
the mid-level disturbance, will move from eastern NC east into the
western Atlantic. An attendant cold front will push southward
across the northern part of the FL Peninsula before stalling
overnight near the I-4 corridor.

Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be relegated to parts
of the FL Peninsula during the day. Early day widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, especially near the Tampa Bay
vicinity and eventually spreading east across the Peninsula.
Gradual destabilization will occur across the central part of the
Peninsula with heating/near 70 deg surface dewpoints contributing to
moderate instability. Seasonably strong 850-700 mb flow (35-40 kt)
may aid in a few multicells and/or clusters being capable of a
localized threat for wind damage. The strongest cores could yield a
hail risk as well. This activity will weaken by early evening as
instability diminishes.

..Smith.. 04/18/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 191730
SWODY2
SPC AC 191729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible tomorrow/Tuesday
across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. A
couple of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail are the main threats,
though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level cyclonic flow will prevail across much of the
central and eastern U.S. tomorrow, as a surface cold front sags
southeastward across the central Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms
are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Tuesday)
ahead of the front, with storms becoming more widespread with
diurnal heating. A few of the storms may be strong to potentially
severe.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, a well-defined upper trough will
progress across the Midwest. A lightning flash or two may also
accompany relatively shallower convection in this region, supported
by sfc-600 mb boundary-layer mixing across the central/northern
Plains during the day. However, coverage appears too limited to
warrant thunder probabilities. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance
propagates southeast along the West Coast. A couple thunderstorms
may occur during the day across northern California in tandem with
the intensification of a surface low.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
A weak, embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the pre-frontal
airmass across the central FL peninsula, encouraging the development
of modest 850 mb flow during the mid to late morning hours.
Increased thunderstorm development is expected during the day in an
environment characterized by up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven
primarily by upper 60s F dewpoints and 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates. Modest low-level hodograph curvature, and associated 150
m2/s2 effective SRH, may contribute to multicellular or transient
supercellular development. Damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of
marginally severe hailstones may accompany the stronger storms.
Given the modest low-level shear, a tornado cannot be ruled out with
a longer-lived transient supercell structure.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 201806
SWODY2
SPC AC 201804

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds
will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
York on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
As one area of upper troughing evolves across the western U.S. from
the Intermountain region to California, a second trough will
progress eastward across the eastern U.S. through the period.

At the surface, a weak system associated with the western upper
troughing will move across southern Nevada/southern California into
the Four Corners states. In the East, a cold front progged to lie
roughly along the Appalachian crest at the start of the period will
move quickly eastward, clearing most of the East Coast by evening
with the exception of eastern Maine, and Florida. In the wake of
the front, cold high pressure will expand across the central and
eastern U.S. through the period.

...The Mid Atlantic region and vicinity...
Convective development is forecast to occur in lee of the
Appalachian crest relatively early in the period, from eastern PA
southward across central VA. Only modest instability (at or below
500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) is expected ahead of the advancing front,
with storms to remain relatively low-topped across the region.
Still, with linear forcing along the front, and fairly strong west-southwesterly flow through the cloud-bearing layer, a few
stronger -- possibly damaging -- wind gusts may occur within what
should evolve into a semi-continuous band/line of convection. This
convection should move off the Mid Atlantic Coast and into southern
New England by late afternoon, weakening as it crosses MA/CT/RI and
vicinity through the evening.

..Goss.. 04/20/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 211729
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on
Thursday.

...Discussion...
As an upper low over the eastern U.S. shifts eastward/northeastward
into the western Atlantic/Canadian Maritime provinces, a trough
consisting of phased northern- and southern-stream components is
progged to advance across the West/Intermountain Region.

As the upper system advances, cool air aloft/steepening lapse rates
will support scattered showers, as well as some embedded lightning
-- particularly during the diurnal peak heating period. Lightning
may occur over portions of the Northwest/Continental Divide area,
and also across portions of the Four Corners states.

Overnight, warm advection is expected to increase across the central/south-central states, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead
of the advancing upper trough. However, dry mid-level air atop
moistening low levels would generally imply that convective
development will remain unlikely through the end of the period
across the area. Near the very end of the period, convective
potential may increase in the vicinity of the Arklatex, and so a
conditional thunder area is being maintained there. Otherwise,
storm development is not expected through the end of the period.

Elsewhere, showers and a thunderstorm or two may occur over south
Florida and the Keys, mainly from afternoon onward.

..Goss.. 04/21/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Friday into
Friday night from parts of the southern Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Large to very large
hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes all appear possible.

...Synopsis...
As broad cyclonic flow around a Canadian Maritimes upper low
gradually departs from the Northeast, the primary feature of
interest will be a short-wave trough moving out of the Intermountain
West into/across the Plains states. With time, the southern portion
of this trough -- advancing more quickly than farther north -- will
cross the Ozarks/Arklatex and then the lower Mississippi Valley
overnight, resulting in a gradually more negative tilt to the
larger-scale trough.

At the surface, a low is progged to reside over the southern High
Plains/in lee of the southern Rockies. As the upper trough
advances, surface low pressure will shift eastward in a loosely
defined manner, while a dryline mixes eastward into central Texas
during the day and a warm frontal zone extends eastward into the
central Gulf Coast states. By the end of the period, a cool front
will be sweeping across Texas in the wake of the primary surface low
expected to reside in the vicinity of the Arklatex by 24/12z.

...Southern Plains to the central Gulf Coast states...
A somewhat complex convective scenario is apparent Friday, as upper
troughing moves into/across the south-central U.S., along with an
associated weak/rather ill-defined surface pattern.

As the upper trough advances, and a surface high shifts eastward
into the western Atlantic, increasing southerly low-level flow into
the south-central states will advect Gulf moisture northward beneath
steep lapse rates aloft overspreading the southern Plains through
the day. As a dryline mixes quickly eastward into central Texas
during the first half of the period, large-scale ascent and an
increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment should support
central Texas storm development. Strong/veering winds with height
across the area suggests that storms will quickly acquire rotation.
While CAMs may be a bit early and aggressive initially, with respect
to storm coverage, isolated supercells -- accompanied by a risk for
very large hail during the afternoon -- will likely congeal into a
cluster of more numerous storms, moving eastward across northeastern
Texas/the Arklatex region by late afternoon/early evening.

Meanwhile, a second area of convective development is expected
farther north, from northwest Texas and eastern portions of the
Texas Panhandle area east-northeastward across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas into Missouri, near a secondary low and its
associated/weak warm front. A drier boundary layer across this area
-- and thus correspondingly lesser CAPE -- should limit severe risk
a bit. However, large hail -- particularly over the northwestern
Texas and Oklahoma portions of the area -- remains apparent.

By evening, as convection congeals across the Arklatex area, risk
for damaging winds will likely become a bit more widespread. CAMs
suggest that this storm cluster -- aided by very favorable shear --
could organize into at least a loosely organized bowing MCS during
the evening, which would shift eastward across the lower Mississippi
Valley and later the central Gulf Coast states overnight, along a
warm frontal zone. While somewhat limited low-level moisture -- and
thus possibly a very weakly stable boundary layer -- is expected,
risk for at least locally damaging winds is apparent, particularly
if convection organizes in an upscale manner as anticipated.
Additionally, an intensifying southerly low-level jet implying
strong warm advection may support a gradual increase in cellular --
and likely rotating -- convection ahead of the main cluster of
storms. Given the presence of the warm front, and increasingly
favorable veering/increasing of the low-level flow field with
height, risk for a couple of tornadoes also remains apparent, given
what should be a not-prohibitively-stable boundary layer in the
vicinity of, and to the south of, the warm front.

While CAMs suggest that a fairly well-organized bowing convective
line may be shifting across Alabama late in the period, a slightly
more stable boundary layer may preclude more widespread wind risk,
and thus an eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area will not be
initiated at this time.

..Goss.. 04/22/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 231736
SWODY2
SPC AC 231735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on
Saturday across parts of the Southeast. All severe hazards appear
possible including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes.

...Southeast States...

An MCS will likely be in progress early Saturday, primarily from a
portion of central and southern GA into southern AL. The leading
squall line may pose an ongoing risk for mostly damaging wind, but
isolated tornadoes will also be possible with any embedded supercell structures. This activity will likely leave an outflow boundary that
will stall before retreating northward during the day. Most models
including the CAM solutions destabilize the atmosphere rapidly from
the southwest as mid to upper 60s F dewpoints advect through the
warm sector beneath plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates. Model
solutions are not in full agreement on the initial southward extent
of or evolution of the morning outflow boundary, so this raises some uncertainty regarding where best corridors of instability will set
up. Nevertheless, a corridor of moderate instability is expected
with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon from
central AL through southern GA and southward toward the Gulf coastal
area. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday
afternoon within the evolving confluent low-level flow regime from
eastern MS into AL as well as along the retreating outflow boundary.
Low level winds will veer in wake of a leading shortwave trough, but
a secondary area of deeper ascent accompanying an upstream vorticity
maximum is expected to spread across the area during the day. Mixed
storms modes are likely, but wind profiles with strong effective
bulk shear of 50+ kt will support organized storms including
supercells and bowing segments with large hail, damaging wind and
tornadoes possible. Given the veered low-level winds, the greatest
tornado threat might evolve with storms interacting with retreating
boundary.

..Dial.. 04/23/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 240534
SWODY2
SPC AC 240533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula as
well as southern portions of the Pacific Northwest. No severe
thunderstorms are currently forecast.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend across the Mid-Atlantic
States early Sunday morning before quickly progressing offshore.
Low-amplitude, predominantly zonal mid-level flow will persist
across the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of this lead wave
for most of the period. Upper ridging will then begin building early
Monday morning across the central CONUS, ahead of a deepening upper
trough supported by a pair of embedded shortwaves.

At the surface, a low center just off the Delmarva Peninsula early
Sunday is expected to continue northeastward as its attendant front
pushes slowly southward across FL. Warm and moist conditions across
FL will support isolated thunderstorms along this front as it moves
down the peninsula.

A lightning flash or two is possible across southeast SD and
adjacent southwest/south-central MN early Sunday but coverage is
expected to be less than 10 percent. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible over central/southern OR and portions of northern CA. In
this area, ascent and cool mid-level temperatures attendant to a
shortwave trough moving into the western Great Basin could result in
isolated lightning flashes.

..Mosier.. 04/24/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 241710
SWODY2
SPC AC 241708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula as
well as southern portions of the Pacific Northwest. Severe weather
is not expected.

...FL...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing Sunday
morning across northern FL and will develop southward along a cold
front during the day. The deeper forcing and stronger winds aloft
accompanying a shortwave trough will move off the Atlantic Seaboard
and away from this region early in the period. While an isolated
strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out with storms developing
during the afternoon, an organized severe event is not expected.

...Pacific NW...

A shortwave trough will move inland during the day accompanied by
steepening lapse rates. Instability will remain very weak, but may
become sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon as
the boundary layer destabilizes. Activity will persist into early
evening, before diminishing overnight.

..Dial.. 04/24/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 250541
SWODY2
SPC AC 250539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Midwest as well
as over portions of the northern and central Rockies on Monday. An
isolated storm or two is also possible across southern Florida.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify on Monday as western CONUS
upper troughing deepens and downstream upper
ridging builds. Strong mid-level flow will exist throughout the
basal portion of the upper trough and extend from northern Mexico
across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest throughout much of
the period. Strengthening of this mid/upper flow is anticipated late
in the period over the southern High Plains.

Surface pattern will feature a broad area of low pressure across the
Plains, which is expected to deepen throughout the day. A low
embedded within this broad area of low pressure will likely move
along the NE/SD border throughout the day before then moving more
northeastward into southwest MN. Additional cyclogenesis is
anticipated over the central High Plains Monday evening with the
resulting low moving across southern NE late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning.

Additionally, an upper low embedded within the large parent trough
is forecast to move into the northern Great Basin. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible over portions of the northern and central
Rockies as this low and attendant cold mid-level temperatures
approach the region.

...Upper Midwest...
Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern
Dakotas and western MN early Monday morning, supported by warm-air
advection attendant to a strong low-level jet over the Plains.

During the day, persistent low-level southerly flow will promote
moisture advection across the southern/central Plains and MS Valley.
Low 60s dewpoints could reach as far north as central IA by Monday
evening. At the same time, the frontal zone between the two surface
lows mentioned in the synopsis will sharpen, likely extending from
southwest MN into far northeast CO at 00Z Tuesday. Despite the
presence of this boundary and increasing low-level moisture, warm
low to mid-level temperatures are forecast to preclude
afternoon/evening storm development. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across the Upper Midwest Monday evening into early Tuesday
morning as a dynamically enhanced low-level jet develops once again.

..Mosier.. 04/25/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 251708
SWODY2
SPC AC 251707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Midwest as well
as over portions of the northern and central Rockies on Monday.

...Upper Midwest...

A warm front is initially forecast to extend from a surface low over
central NE through central IA and southern IL early Monday morning.
This front will move slowly northward to near the IA/MN border and
eastward through southern WI by Monday evening. Warm temperatures at
the base of an EML will contribute to a strong cap in warm sector
and in vicinity of the warm front. As a result, the most likely area
for thunderstorms during the period will be within zone of deeper
isentropic ascent well north of this boundary across central and
northern MN, northern WI and the upper peninsula of MI. These storms
will be elevated with limited severe threat, though some marginally
severe hail might occur with the stronger updrafts given presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates.

...Northern and Central Rockies...

Cold air aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany an
upper trough through the northern and central Rockies Monday. Areas
of diabatic heating of the surface layer and corridors of deeper
ascent attending the shortwave trough will favor development of
isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening before
diminishing overnight.

..Dial.. 04/25/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 261733
SWODY2
SPC AC 261732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night, primarily across a portion of the Southern Plains.

...Southern plains region...

A broad fetch of southwesterly winds aloft will become established
over the Southern Plains Tuesday downstream from an upper trough
that will amplify over the Southwest States. A warm elevated mixed
later (EML) will advect through much of the warm sector resulting in
a strong cap to surface based storms during the day over much of
this region. Low-level dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will advect
as far as northwest TX into western OK during the afternoon beneath
the EML resulting in a corridor of moderate surface-based
instability with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE possible east of the dryline.
An early round of scattered showers and thunderstorms still appears
likely from late morning into the afternoon across parts of central
and northern Texas into OK in association with ascent attending a
leading shortwave trough. However, this activity will likely be
elevated above the CAP, but could pose a risk for marginally severe
hail.

Upstream of the early activity, a corridor of surface heating will
likely occur from western TX into far western OK, and surface based
storms will likely initiate in vicinity of the eastward-mixing
dryline by late afternoon. Effective bulk shear from 45-55 kt will
support supercells as the initial storm mode and this activity will
pose a risk for large to very large hail. A relatively small window
will exist for isolated tornadoes as the low-level jet increases
during the early evening and before the boundary layer decouples.
Some upscale growth may occur, and activity may continue east
through parts of northwest and north central TX into OK during the
overnight with a continued threat for large hail and damaging wind.
An upgrade to ENG risk for large hail may be introduced from a
portion of western TX into southwest OK on the day 1 updates.

A couple of supercells might also develop over the higher terrain of
northern Mexico and spread into south central TX with very large
hail and a tornado or two the main threats during the evening.

...Central High Plains...

Upslope flow and low-level convergence near a deepening surface low
will likely result in thunderstorm development over far northeast CO
and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Strong vertical shear may result in
organized updrafts and the potential for a few supercells.
Additionally, a cold front stalled across the region could augment
ascent while also provided a corridor for storm progression.

...Upper Midwest...

Elevated storms early in the period, driven by warm-air advection
over the front, could occasionally become strong enough to produce
isolated hail in the vicinity of SD/IA/MN border intersection.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible later Tuesday
evening and overnight across southern MI and central WI as the
low-level jet increases again.

..Dial.. 04/26/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 041712
SWODY2
SPC AC 041710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts
of the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Wind
gusts and hail will be the primary hazards.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southern Georgia...
A shortwave trough will move to the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday as
another shortwave trough moves across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms may be ongoing
along parts of the front at the start of the period. Convective
coverage is expected to expand during the morning as surface
temperatures warm. By midday, a line of strong thunderstorms is
forecast along and just ahead of the front from far southeast
Louisiana east-northeastward into southwest Georgia. Steep low-level
lapse rates and veered low-level flow of about 30 kt will aid a
marginal wind damage threat. The threat should continue through the
afternoon as the line moves slowly south-southeastward across the
central Gulf Coast and southern Georgia. Hail will also be possible
with the stronger cells.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
A shortwave trough will move across the southern and central
Appalachians during the morning on Wednesday. Thunderstorm
development may take place near a surface trough located from the
Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. Although
instability will be weak, 850 mb winds of 35 to 45 kt along with
steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind damage
threat. A second shortwave trough will move into the region during
the mid to late afternoon. An associated cold front will advance
southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Thunderstorm
development will be possible near the front during the mid to late
afternoon. Instability will again be weak but low-level lapse rates
should be steep enough for a marginal wind damage threat. Hail may
also occur with the stronger thunderstorms.

..Broyles.. 05/04/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 051647
SWODY2
SPC AC 051645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern Florida
southward along the Atlantic coast of the Peninsula, as well as
across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on Thursday.
Hail and strong gusts will be the main hazards with these storms.

...Florida...

A cold front will sag southward from southern GA into central FL
during the forecast period. A seasonally moist airmass, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will be in place across FL,
and will support moderate to strong destabilization with MLCAPE
values around 1500-2500 J/kg forecast. Deep layer west/southwesterly
flow will be relatively weak, especially with southward extent
across the Peninsula, and little frontal convergence is expected
given veered low level winds. Nevertheless, scattered thunderstorms
are expected as the upper trough pivots eastward through the period.
The combination of moderate/strong instability and high PW values
could result in strong gusts with briefly organized cells, though
weak shear and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit greater
severe potential.

...Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity...

A shortwave impulse rotating through a larger-scale trough over the
eastern U.S. will aid in thunderstorm development in northwesterly
mid/upper flow across the region. At the surface, boundary layer
moisture will remain modest, with dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low 50s. Nevertheless, weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg
MLCAPE) is forecast as a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8
C/km) overspreads the region. Moderate midlevel flow with 30-40 kt northwesterly winds between 850-700 mb and effective shear around
25-30 kt should allow for a few organized cells. Elongated
hodographs and inverted-v low level thermodynamic profiles below
around 850 mb will further support clusters of storms capable of
strong gusts and hail ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front
during the afternoon/evening.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 071707
SWODY2
SPC AC 071706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF KS
INTO WEST-CENTRAL MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and
southern Plains on Saturday. Some of these storms will pose a risk
for very large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...Central/Southern Plains...

An upper ridge centered over the Plains Saturday morning will weaken
and spread eastward toward the MS Valley through the evening as a
shortwave trough ejects eastward across the Rockies. A plume of
steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region amid moderate
shear values. A surface low will deepen over western KS in response,
and increasing southerly low level flow will result in northward
moisture transport ahead of a dryline extending across western KS/OK
and into southwest TX. During the evening, a cold front will surge south/southeast across the central Plains, becoming oriented from
central MO to northwest TX by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a warm
front will lift northward across KS to near the KS/southeast NE
border into central MO by afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the southward-surging
cold front across eastern CO during the afternoon. Poor boundary
layer moisture, and inverted-v low level thermodynamic profiles will
support isolated strong downburst winds, while elongated hodographs
and steep midlevel lapse rates suggest some potential for sporadic
large hail. A conditional threat for severe storms will continue
southward along the dryline across western parts of OK into western
TX. While boundary layer moisture will be greater across this area,
strong capping, weaker large-scale ascent and poor dryline
convergence will limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, strong heating
and deep mixing along the dryline could result in a few storms
capable of large hail and strong gusts.

A greater severe threat is expected to materialize across parts of central/eastern KS into central MO during the afternoon and evening.
While 60s dewpoints are expected across this area, deeper/better
quality boundary layer moisture will likely remain south of the
region. Nevertheless, midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km and
30-40 kt effective shear should support supercell storm development,
first near the triple point across western KS. Large hail and
damaging gusts are possible with this initial activity. Convection
should increase as it spreads east/northeast toward the warm front.
Enhanced low level shear in the vicinity of the front will increase
tornado potential somewhat, and a few tornadoes are possible across
parts of central/eastern KS and perhaps far southeast NE, dependent
on the exact location of the warm front. A strengthening
southwesterly low level jet is forecast to develop during the
evening and some upward development into one or more lines/bowing
segments is possible across parts of eastern KS into west-central
MO, where strong gusts could continue into the late evening hours.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 090600
SWODY2
SPC AC 090558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of
south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into
the Carolinas.

...South-Central Texas...
A nearly stalled front should extend across central TX on Monday,
with a dryline extending southward from this front into
north-central Mexico. Nearly zonal mid-level flow will persist over
the southern Plains, with nebulous large-scale forcing for ascent.
Even so, low-level convergence along the front and sharpening
dryline and modest east-southeasterly low-level flow should prove
sufficient in tandem with strong diurnal heating to foster isolated
convective development Monday afternoon/evening. The airmass
along/south of the front and east of the dryline should become
moderately to strongly unstable, with MLCAPE of 2000-3500+ J/kg
forecast. Although the stronger mid-level westerly flow is forecast
to remain mostly north of the front, winds should strengthen at
upper levels. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support
supercell structures with any storms that can form.

The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and a long, generally
straight hodograph at mid/upper levels suggest large to perhaps very
large hail should be the main threat with any supercells. Isolated severe/damaging wind gusts may also occur with both the initially
discrete storms, and any clusters that can develop
east-southeastward through the evening. There is still some
uncertainty with how much convection will ultimately form across the
warm sector in south-central TX given the lack of obvious forcing
aloft. But, the 12Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS both show a robust convective precipitation signal, and some convection-allowing guidance also
develops multiple supercells across this region. Accordingly,
confidence in convective initiation occurring has increased enough
to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities across part of
south-central TX.

...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough should move off the East Coast
early in the period. Other weak, convectively augmented mid-level
perturbations may move eastward across the Carolinas and vicinity
through the day. A trailing cold front extending across southern VA
into western NC should be the primary forcing mechanism that will
focus storm development Monday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a
fairly moist low-level airmass will probably support MLCAPE reaching
1000-1500 J/kg by peak afternoon heating. 30-40 kt of deep-layer
shear should foster a mix of supercells and clusters with initial
development, with a tendency for some upscale growth through the
afternoon and early evening given the linear forcing of the front.
Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts both appear possible
with these storms as they move east-southeastward. They should
eventually move offshore and/or weaken by Monday evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast...
Storms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Monday
morning across some part of the lower MS Valley and Southeast, but
there is uncertainty with both the placement and intensity of this
convection. Most guidance suggests that the better isolated severe
storm threat should remain mostly to the south of these morning
storms. Somewhat farther north, a surface front will likely serve as
the northern limit for any appreciable severe potential. Given
nebulous large-scale ascent forecast in model guidance, it remains
unclear how much additional convection will develop Monday afternoon along/south of the front. Any storms that do form could become
severe given a weakly to moderately unstable airmass and the
presence of 35-50 kt of westerly mid-level flow. Isolated large hail
and strong to damaging wind gusts should be the main threats. With
considerable uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage and the
effect of morning storms on the degree of destabilization Monday
afternoon, will maintain a broad Marginal Risk area.

...North-Central/East Texas to the ArkLaTex...
Isolated to scattered storms may form through the period from parts
of north-central/east TX to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Most of this
activity should occur to the north of a surface front. But, the
shallow nature of this front and the continued presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates should allow for a reservoir of potentially
moderate instability to remain across this region (MUCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg). Large hail will likely be the main severe threat
with any storms that occur, as 40-50 kt of mid-level westerly flow
will foster similar values of effective bulk shear.

..Gleason.. 05/09/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 091725
SWODY2
SPC AC 091723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of
south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into
the Carolinas.

...Central/East/South TX...Arklatex...
Expectation is for a weakening cold front to extend from the Edwards
Plateau through southeast TX early Monday morning. Some isolated
showers will likely be ongoing, particularly across central and east
TX, but any thunderstorms associated with Sunday night's activity
are forecast to be across the Lower MS Valley. Any additional
southward progress of the front throughout the day is expected to be
minimal, with at least modest low-level moisture beginning to return
northward Monday afternoon. Southerly/southwesterly low-level flow
across this frontal zone is not expected to be particularly strong,
but persistent isentropic ascent may contribute isolated
thunderstorms throughout the day across north-central/northeast TX
into the Arklatex. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
mid-level flow will contribute to an environment that supports hail
with the strongest storms. This hail threat will persist through the
evening and overnight as the low-level flow gradually strengthens.

Guidance is in good agreement that a low-amplitude shortwave trough
will move across northern Mexico and into the TX Hill Country late
Monday night/early Tuesday. As ascent attendant to this shortwave
spreads eastward, it should augment ongoing convergence along the
front as well as strengthen the southwesterly low-level flow to
support additional thunderstorm development across the Edwards
Plateau/TX Hill Country. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level
veering transitioning to long and straight character in the
mid-levels. This type of wind field coupled with steep mid-level
lapse rates suggests supercells capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Strong water-loaded downbursts and a tornado or two are
also possible.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast...
Showers and thunderstorms, remnant from activity Sunday night/early
Monday morning, will likely be ongoing from southern LA into the
central Gulf Coast. A damaging wind gust or two could occur with
these storms.

A cold front is expected to gradually shift southward/southeastward
throughout the day, with some additional thunderstorm development
possible along this front. Much of the region will be south of the
stronger westerly flow aloft, but amply low-level moisture and
modest buoyancy could still result in updrafts strong enough to
produce water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas...
Modest low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front
gradually moving southward across southern VA And the Carolinas on
Monday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will persist throughout
the day, with some late afternoon/early evening strengthening on
this flow possible as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through
the region. Ascent attendant to this shortwave will augment the lift
along the front, helping to foster thunderstorm development once the
air mass destabilizes. Instability will be modest, but
aforementioned strong mid-level flow should still result in robust
updrafts. A cluster/bowing line segment storm mode is anticipated,
with damaging wind gusts as the main severe threat.

..Mosier.. 05/09/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 111718
SWODY2
SPC AC 111717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday across parts
of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Localized wind damage or
marginal hail will be possible.

...Southern GA into northern FL...
As a low-amplitude upper trough exits the Mid Atlantic, moderate
westerly flow aloft will remain over much of the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure will exist over much of the central and
eastern CONUS, the exception being over southern MS/AL/GA and FL,
south of a cold front. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will exist south
of this front, with the greatest low-level lapse rates/heating
developing over FL and southern GA. Forecast soundings yield
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, with modest deep-layer shear of 35 or 40 kt
maximized along the cold front.

A few storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across the northern
Gulf of Mexico or into southern MS and AL, and may continue east
during the day. Additional development is expected along and ahead
of the front during the afternoon. Sufficiently long, straight-line
hodographs will favor cells capable of marginal hail, with locally
damaging gusts possible with any larger clusters of storms.

..Jewell.. 05/11/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 121747
SWODY2
SPC AC 121745

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of producing large hail and a few strong wind gusts
will be possible from central Nebraska into northern Kansas Thursday
afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...
Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, a lee-trough will develop
during the day over the High Plains, with strong heating producing
steep low-level lapse rates. Meanwhile, boundary-layer dewpoints are
expected to average in the mid 40s F as gusty southerly winds
develop during the afternoon. Midlevel temperatures will remain
cool, resulting in MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg.

Storms should develop near the surface trough over western NE,
between 21Z and 00Z. Elongated, primarily straight hodographs will
strongly favor cellular storm mode, with sufficient moisture and
instability favoring hail around 1" in diameter. A few strong wind
gusts may also develop with cold outflow and a well-mixed boundary
layer. A tight CIN gradient is forecast into central/eastern NE and
KS, which will limit the eastward extent of the severe risk.

...Southern FL...
Around 35 kt deep layer shear will remain over the area beneath
westerly winds aloft, with heating resulting in around 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE by afternoon. Sea-breeze convection is expected after about
20Z, and producing gusty winds. Weak low-level wind fields as well
as poor lapse rates aloft currently precludes any severe
probabilities.

..Jewell.. 05/12/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 131730
SWODY2
SPC AC 131728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Friday, with large hail and severe wind
gusts the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Flow aloft will remain northwesterly across the Divide as shortwave
ridging in the southern Plains continues ahead of a developing
western trough. Upper-level forcing will be quite diffuse with only
subtle flow enhancement within the central High Plains. A weak lee trough/cyclone and increasing 850 mb winds will aid in moisture
transport to the north, though dewpoints likely will not exceed the
low/mid 50s F. Isolated to widely scattered storms are most likely
to initiate within the High Plains lee trough with some potential
for a semi-organized cluster or two to persist into the evening
aided by the low-level jet.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong daytime heating will help to initiate storms within the
surface trough across the western Texas Panhandle. Though deep-layer
shear will be modest, steep low/mid-level lapse rates will mean
storms could be rather intense initially. Early, more discrete
storms will be capable of large hail. Given the deeply mixed
boundary layer, storms will tend to become quickly outflow dominant
and the primary risk will shift to strong/severe wind gusts. It is
possible a semi-organized cluster could evolve out of this activity,
but confidence is low given 20-30 kts of effective shear and strong
CIN with eastward extent.

...Eastern Colorado into central Kansas...
Storms are expected to initiate off of the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado and propagate to the east. Large hail and damaging winds
will be possible. There is a conditional threat for a few more
organized storms in southwestern Kansas as effective shear will be
40-50 kts by late afternoon. Uncertainty remains a bit high, though,
as models show a strong outflow signal from convection in the Texas
Panhandle which could potentially limit coverage of severe storms.
Into central Kansas, some guidance continues to show convection
developing in association with a modest low-level jet. Convection
here will most likely be elevated with a marginally severe hail and
isolated wind gust threat.

...Southeast Wyoming...
A few storms are expected to develop in the Laramie Range during the
afternoon. Moisture will be relatively limited this far north,
though some increase is expected late in the day as southeasterly
winds increase at low levels. Inverted-v profiles will support
potential for damaging wind gusts. MLCAPE may only reach 500-1000
J/kg, but 40-50 kts effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates
would support isolated large hail. How far southeastward this
activity extends is questionable, but moisture return along with a
modest low-level jet into southwest Nebraska could help sustain a
cluster into the evening.

..Wendt.. 05/13/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 150651
SWODY2
SPC AC 150649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and isolated large
hail will be possible across parts of the southern and central
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern and
central Plains on Sunday as a shortwave ridge moves across the
southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a low will likely
develop in the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Southerly
winds in the southern Plains will result in moisture advection
throughout the day, with surface dewpoints reaching the lower to mid
60s F across much of Texas. A west Texas dryline may again setup by
afternoon with low-level convergence becoming maximized along and to
the east of the dryline. This should support convective initiation
during the early to mid afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to
develop and move eastward across the southern High Plains during the
mid to late afternoon.

As has been the case in recent days, a broad corridor of moderate
instability will develop on Sunday across the southern High Plains.
Flow in the low to mid-levels is forecast to be west to
west-northwesterly, which will create enough directional shear for
organized severe storms. NAM forecast soundings at Amarillo and
Lubbock by 21Z have MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear near 35 kt. 850 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be
near 8.0 C/km. This combination of instability and shear should be
favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. The forecast
soundings also show relatively large-temperature dewpoint spreads
and steep low-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for
high-based storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The
severe threat should move eastward across the southern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening, potentially reaching
northwest Texas and western Oklahoma by mid evening.

...Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern and
central Plains on Sunday with a shortwave ridge moving across the
southern and central Rockies. An axis of moderate instability is
forecast to develop by afternoon from southwest Kansas extending
northwestward into northeast Colorado. Convection will initiate in
the higher terrain of eastern Colorado by early to mid afternoon.
Thunderstorms are forecast to move eastward across the central High
Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could reach the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range across eastern Colorado by Sunday afternoon. However,
deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably less in eastern
Colorado than on previous days. For this reason, thunderstorms that
move across eastern Colorado may be less organized. The stronger
multicells could produce marginally severe wind gusts and hail. As
the storms move east-southeastward into southwest Kansas, they will
encounter more instability and stronger deep-layer shear. This may
help the storms to become more organized during the early to mid
evening. If a cold pool can develop, then wind damage and isolated
large hail would be possible.

...Ozarks...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern and
central Plains on Sunday. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast to be in place from northeast Kansas east-southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model forecasts
show moderate instability along this corridor by afternoon, and
develop scattered thunderstorms. Steep low-level lapse rates near
7.5 C/km combined with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 kt range would
be sufficient for a marginal wind damage threat.

..Broyles.. 05/15/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 191813
SWODY2
SPC AC 191812

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage will be
possible tomorrow across parts of the northern High Plains.
Marginally severe thunderstorms may occur outside of the Slight risk
area in parts of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging and associated large-scale subsidence will
prevail across much of the eastern CONUS, as a mid-level trough
gradually progresses eastward across the western CONUS. Across the
Plains states into the Upper Mississippi Valley, deep-layer
meridional flow will define the upper air pattern, with a wide
corridor of 30+ kt low-level flow advecting moisture northward
through the day. Low-level moisture return will become relatively
more meager with westward extent across the central CONUS. Still,
upslope flow along the higher terrain to the lee of the Rockies,
along with glancing upper support from the approaching mid-level
trough, will contribute to deep-layer ascent supporting the
development of strong storms with some severe risk across the
northern High Plains. Deep-moist convergence at the terminus of the
stronger low-level flow across the Upper Mississippi Valley is also
expected to foster organized storm development during the afternoon
hours, with a couple of severe storms possible.

...Northern High Plains...
Convective initiation is expected by mid afternoon to the lee of the
Rockies. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer (extending up to 700-500 mb
in some spots) given relatively lackluster low-level moisture
recovery, with surface dewpoints remaining generally below 50F.
Nonetheless, sfc-3km AGL lapse rates are expected to exceed 8.5 C/km
by peak heating across much of the northern High Plains, overspread
by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates supporting 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
Vigorous convective development is expected along the lee of the
Rockies, that combined with 30+ kts of sfc-6 km speed shear, will
support updraft organization into multicellular clusters and
transient supercells. Large hail may accompany the stronger
updrafts. However, relatively mediocre low-level shear and
evaporative cooling within the deep, very dry sub-cloud layer is
expected to result in cold pool mergers and subsequent upscale
growth into one or more MCSs by early evening. Damaging wind gusts
may accompany the stronger cores embedded within any organized MCS.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
While widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
within the axis of stronger 925-850 mb flow at the start of the
period across parts of IA into MN, gradual clearing is expected
later in the day. While low and mid-level lapse rates will not be as
steep compared to areas farther west, richer low-level moisture is
expected to compensate. As such, 1000-1500 J/K MLCAPE is expected by
afternoon across the Upper Mississippi Valley, northwestward to the
U.S./Canada border, where a cold front is expected to be slowly
sagging southward. Damaging gusts and a couple severe hail stones
may accompany the stronger storms embedded in the low-level wind
maxima, and along the front itself. Given relatively modest speed
and directional vertical wind shear (with bulk effective shear
values remaining around or below 35 kts), the severe threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated, with a Marginal risk in
place to address this threat.

..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/19/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 201727
SWODY2
SPC AC 201726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms capable of producing hail and strong gusty winds
will be possible Friday across parts of the High Plains, with a wind
gust or two also possible over parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
A high-amplitude upper flow field -- featuring a closed low and surrounding/broad cyclonic flow field -- will cover the western half
of the country, while a ridge encompasses the East.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail from the southern Plains/Ozarks/Midwest regions eastward. Meanwhile, on the eastern
fringe of the cyclonic flow field aloft, a surface baroclinic zone
will extend from the northern Plains to the Four Corners area, while
a lee trough extends from a weak frontal low over northeastern
Colorado southward across the southern High Plains region through
the period.

...North Dakota vicinity southward into the central High Plains... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the cool side of a
baroclinic zone lying from northeast Colorado north-northeastward
into the Dakotas during the afternoon. Most of the convection over
the Dakotas will likely remain elevated west of the front, with hail
being the primary severe risk. Farther southwest, across northeast
Colorado and far southeast Wyoming and into the Nebraska Panhandle
-- just northeast of the northeastern Colorado surface low -- a few surface-based storms are expected near peak heating. Here, locally gusty/damaging winds will be possible along with potential for hail
with the strongest storms. While the wind risk will decrease
through the evening as surface-based storms diminish, some hail risk
may continue with elevated storms persisting in a zone of warm
advection north/west of the front.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated afternoon convective development is expected along a weak
lee trough across the High Plains of southeastern Colorado and into
eastern New Mexico, as the airmass destabilizes in tandem with
daytime heating. With moderately strong
southerly/south-southwesterly flow with height suggesting that a few
stronger storms/segments may evolve, and a deep mixed layer
supporting potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts, a 5%
wind/MRGL risk will is being included.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
As a weak vort max on the western portion of the eastern U.S. upper
ridge moves north-northeastward across the Upper Midwest vicinity
through the afternoon and into the Upper Great Lakes during the
evening, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve,
within a modestly unstable environment. While weak lapse rates
should limit overall convective intensity/severe risk, moderately
strong south-southwesterly flow with height may be sufficient to
allow evolution of a few stronger storms during the afternoon and
early evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds would likely be the
main risk, before convection weakens diurnally.

..Goss.. 05/20/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 211744
SWODY2
SPC AC 211743

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be
possible across the central and southern High Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
While a short-wave upper trough is forecast to shift southeastward
across the northeastern U.S. Saturday, most of the eastern half of
the country will remain under the influence of broad upper ridging.
Meanwhile, a gradually weakening upper low is forecast to move very slowly/gradually northeastward across the Intermountain West.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone will persist from the upper
Mississippi Valley southwestward across the central High Plains and
into the Four Corners states, with the boundary making southward
progress across the north-central U.S. during the second half of the
period.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Afternoon heating/destabilization across the central and southern
High Plains will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, aided by weak upslope flow and subtle mid-level height
falls. The low-level southeasterly upslope flow will be topped by
mid-level southwesterlies, which should gradually increase across
the area as the upper jet shifts slowly east.

The combination of ample destabilization and sufficient shear
suggests organized/rotating storms will evolve locally, along with
attendant risk for locally damaging winds and hail. Convection will
likely spread northeastward with time toward lower elevations,
though eastward extent of severe risk should remain limited by
weaker shear over the lower Plains, and the influence of the
expansive eastern upper ridge.

...Northern Minnesota and eastern Dakotas...
Showers and a few thunderstorms -- possibly ongoing over the
northern Minnesota area early -- may become a bit more
widespread/vigorous through the afternoon and evening along a
baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the eastern Dakotas
and into northern Minnesota. Moderate deep-layer flow may allow a
few stronger storms to evolve, with a locally damaging gust or a few
marginal hail events possible.

..Goss.. 05/21/2021

$$
---
* SLMR 2.1a * A distant ship, smoke on the horizon....
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 220545
SWODY2
SPC AC 220544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and large hail are
possible across portions of the northern Great Plains on Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough will reside over the western U.S.
with a ridge located over the MS Valley/Upper Midwest. Farther
east, a mid-level trough will glance the Northeast U.S. In the low
levels, a cold front will push through a large part of New England
during the day with the trailing portion of the front extending
through the Upper Midwest/northern Great Plains. An elongated area
of low pressure/surface trough will extend through the High Plains.

...Northern Great Plains southward through the High Plains...
A mid-level disturbance, embedded within a larger-scale western U.S.
trough, will move from the central Rockies north-northeastward into
the northern High Plains during the period. An attendant belt of
strong, meridional 500-mb flow (50+ kt) will gradually move
longitudinally east and overspread the western part of the Great
Plains warm sector during the afternoon/evening. Strong
south-southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of
mid-upper 50s boundary layer dewpoints from SD southward to NM/TX.
Strong heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Stronger flow over the northern and central High Plains
will support organized storm structures, including the possibility
for several supercells and bow-shaped structures. Models indicate
perhaps the most favorable combination of shear/buoyancy will focus
over SD during the afternoon/early evening. Organization into one
or more bands of storms is likely during the evening as a LLJ
strengthens with widely scattered severe gusts becoming the primary
threat before the severe risk lessens late.

...Northeast...
Heating and a reservoir of low 60s F dewpoints ahead of a cold front
will yield weak instability developing over northern New England by
midday Sunday. Nearly unidirectional west-northwesterly flow will
favor southeastward-moving storms as widely scattered convection
develops by early to mid afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts may
accompany a couple of the stronger downdrafts as this activity moves
into southern New England and the Hudson Valley during the late
afternoon/early evening.

..Smith.. 05/22/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and large hail are
possible across portions of the northern Great Plains tomorrow
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the northern High Plains, with
surface lee troughing encouraging the northward advection of a warm,
relatively moist airmass across the northern and central CONUS
tomorrow. Deep-layer ascent associated with the approaching trough,
and strong surface heating with upslope flow will support scattered
strong to severe thunderstorm development along the lee of the
Rockies, from the U.S./Canada to Mexico borders. Upper ridging and
surface high pressure will dominate much of the Ohio Valley into the
Southeast, with deep-layer northwesterly flow prevailing across the
Northeast, where scattered storms (some strong to locally severe)
are likely tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front.

...Northern High Plains into the Dakotas...
Weak surface low development is expected along a warm front across
the northern High Plains during the morning hours, with the low
expected to be positioned across western SD by afternoon peak
heating. Ahead of the low, low 60s F dewpoints will reach northern
SD during the afternoon, overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates, supporting widespread 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. 30-50 kts of
effective bulk shear is expected ahead of an eastward moving cold
front given ample speed shear. However, troposheric flow will be
meridional, with unidirectional wind shear above 700 mb expected
across the central/northern Plain states tomorrow. As such, storms
should rapidly grow upscale into linear segments, with damaging
winds and large hail expected as the primary severe hazards. Ahead
of the surface low and along the warm front across portions of
western SD, relatively greater backing of the surface winds will
contribute to locally better low-level veering vertical wind
profiles. Modestly enlarged hodographs/200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will
promote some tornado threat with circulations embedded in line
segments, along with any storms that can manage to stay discrete
ahead of the line.

...Central into the southern High Plains...
Low-level convergence due to upslope flow and afternoon peak heating
will encourage scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of
the higher terrain. Ahead of the storms, a moist low-level airmass (characterized by low 60s F dewpoints) will contribute to 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Relatively weak deep-layer and low-level shear will
foster cold pool mergers with multicellular clusters/transient
supercells upscale-growing into line segments an hour or so after
maturity. Large hail may occur with the initial, more discrete storm
modes, with damaging gusts becoming more prevalent after upscale
growth.

...Northeast...
Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will
foster 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front, where at least
isolated thunderstorm development is expected tomorrow afternoon.
While tropospheric flow will be unidirectional (northwesterly),
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear suggests that some of the storms
may become organized/strong. As temperatures warm into the 80s F,
modest boundary-layer mixing may encourage downward momentum
transport of the stronger flow aloft, with a couple of damaging
gusts possible with the stronger storms.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/22/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 230532
SWODY2
SPC AC 230531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and
severe gusts, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening for parts
of the central Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low and associated trough will slowly move into
south-central Canada from the MT/Canadian border. A mid-level ridge
is forecast over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. A cool front will push
east across parts of the Upper Midwest with the southern portion of
the boundary stalling over the central Great Plains. A dryline is
forecast over the southern High Plains.

...Central Great Plains into the southern High Plains...
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of appreciable
moisture into the central/southern High Plains where strong heating
is forecast. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies
is forecast to overspread the central High Plains as the primary
disturbance moves north into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Model
guidance has shown some consistency in showing the greatest
combination of instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to exist
Monday afternoon across mainly parts of western into northern KS.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the
late afternoon/evening and pose a hail/wind risk with the stronger
storms. Some upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the
evening as low-level flow strengthens.

Farther south, isolated storms are forecast to develop over favored
terrain areas (i.e., southwest TX) and parts of eastern NM/west and
northwest TX. Weaker flow fields will limit the overall storm
intensity, but isolated large hail/severe gusts may accompany the
stronger cores before this activity weakens during the evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Holdover showers/cloud debris at the start of the period will likely
dissipate during the morning across parts of MN with the airmass
forecast to destabilize during the day. Models indicate 60s surface
dewpoints will contribute to moderate instability by mid afternoon.
Primarily multicell modes are forecast with the stronger 500-mb flow
forecast to remain displaced to the north/northwest of the warm
sector. Isolated hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms.

...VA/NC...
A couple of locally strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts
of this region during the afternoon within a regime of modest
northwesterly flow aloft. To the south of a residual frontal zone,
adequate heating/moisture may invigorate a few updrafts to
intermittently intensify. Coverage/confidence of this expected
threat appears too isolated to warrant the inclusion of low-severe probabilities at this time.

..Smith.. 05/23/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 231731
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and
severe gusts, are possible Monday afternoon and evening for parts of
the central Great Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough draped across the central/northern Rockies is
poised to eject into south-central Canada while upper ridging and
associated surface high pressure dominate the East Coast tomorrow.
Coincident with the mid-level trough, large-scale surface lee
troughing will encourage low-level moisture advection across the
central CONUS ahead of the lee-trough axis, where scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the moist sector, with
adequate instability from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Big
Bend in southwest TX promoting vigorous updraft development and
occasional severe storms.

...Portions of the Central Plains to the Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, at least scattered thunderstorm
development is expected ahead of a dryline positioned roughly from
southwest NE south-southwestward to eastern NM. These storms will
initiate in a thermodynamic environment characterized by 8+ C/km low
and mid-level lapse rates atop low 60s F dewpoints, with up to 3000
J/kg MLCAPE expected in spots. While tropospheric flow is expected
to be modest in magnitude and highly meridional and unidirectional
in nature, the very steep, deep-layer lapse rates will promote large
hail development with any of the stronger storms that manage to
sustain themselves. Some modest low-level veering may promote
transient supercell structures and a 2 inch diameter stone or two
cannot be completely ruled out. However, given a pronounced sfc-700
mb dry sub-cloud layer, especially south of the OK Panhandle, along
with overall weak low-level shear, cold pool mergers and upscale
growth into linear segments are expected only a few hours after
convective initiation. A damaging gust threat may ensue with the
upscale growth. If any storms manage to stay discrete and inflow
dominant during the early evening hours, the increase in low-level
flow magnitudes with the development of a nocturnal LLJ may foster a
brief window of opportunity for a tornado or two before the boundary
layer stabilizes.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
By early to mid afternoon, temperatures warming into the 70s F, with
mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will promote 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
convective initiation (given the presence of weak to negligible
convective inhibition). 6-6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop the
richer low-level moisture will promote tall, skinny CAPE profiles to
support marginally severe hail with the more organized storms that
can benefit from the 30+ kts of effective bulk shear across the
area. A couple damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out.

...Portions of central Virginia into central North Carolina...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected in
association with a mid-level impulse traversing the upper ridge axis
during the afternoon. These storms are developing within a region
characterized by less than 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and weak
deep-layer tropospheric flow. While a damaging gust or marginally
severe hailstone cannot be completely ruled out, the latest guidance
continues to suggest that severe potential remains too low to
warrant probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/23/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 241719
SWODY2
SPC AC 241718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening from the western Great Lakes southwestward into the central
Great Plains and into west Texas. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Tuesday as a shortwave ridge moves across the Rockies.
Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Great Plains. At
the surface, a trough should be located from eastern New Mexico
northeastward into central Kansas. To the east of the surface
trough, south-southeast winds will result in moisture advection
across the southern High Plains and central Plains during the day.
Surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F across west
Texas and west-central Kansas with a dryline located on the western
edge of the moist airmass. Surface heating and increasing low-level
convergence near the dryline will likely result in scattered
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon.
Thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward into the
stronger instability, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range by late afternoon.

In addition to the instability, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
in the 25 to 30 kt range from west Texas into central Kansas. The
amount of shear will be aided by some directional shear in the
boundary-layer and speed shear in the mid-levels. This combined with
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will be favorable for
strong updrafts. Supercell development will be possible, mainly in
areas that reach peak destabilization in the late afternoon. Hail
will be likely with any supercell. Multicells, with wind damage
potential will also be possible, especially if a convective cluster
or line can become organized.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains
on Tuesday as an associated 60 to 75 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains as a pre-frontal trough moves into the upper Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorm development is expected to occur along and near
the pre-frontal trough during the afternoon from northern and
western Wisconsin south-southwestward into far southeast Minnesota
and far northeast Iowa. Ahead of the pre-frontal trough, a corridor
of moderate instability, with SBCAPE peaking around 1500 J/kg, is
expected to setup from Iowa into central Wisconsin and upper
Michigan.

In addition to the instability, the mid-level jet will create
moderate deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings near Madison and La
Crosse by 21Z have south-southwest flow at the surface, with
westerly flow near 700 mb. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 50
kt. This would be more than sufficient for supercells. An elevated
mixed layer extending eastward from southern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin will create steep mid-level lapse rates supportive of
hail. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. However,
the severe threat will be conditional upon the amount of
destabilization and number of storms that form relative to the
distribution of instability. Although a slight risk may be needed on
Tuesday across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, the threat
appears too conditional at this time for an upgrade from marginal
risk.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA AND IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable on Wednesday across
parts of the Great Plains, where damaging wind gusts, large hail and
a couple tornadoes are possible. The greatest potential for severe
will be in the central Plains. Scattered severe thunderstorms will
also be possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and
northern Appalachians.

...Central Plains/Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies
on Wednesday as a shortwave ridge moves across the central and
northern Plains. Ahead of the upper-level trough, a surface low will
deepen across eastern Wyoming during the day. Upslope flow will be
in place across much of the northern Plains with south southeasterly
flow located across the central High Plains. Moisture advection will
take place across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a moist
axis setting up from western Kansas north-northwestward into western
Nebraska. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis will likely be in
the mid to upper 50s F, contributing to moderate instability by mid
to late afternoon. Convection will form in the higher terrain of
northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming, with thunderstorm developing
and moving eastward into the central High Plains during the late
afternoon and early evening.

Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the central
High Plains on Wednesday. As the upper-level trough approaches and
the low-level jet strengthens, deep-layer shear will increase. This
combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range,
will make conditions favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the stronger updrafts. A tornado threat and wind-damage threat
will likely exist with supercells. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper-level trough, is forecast to increase during the
evening across the central High Plains, resulting in the development
of a linear MCS. This combined with a strengthening low-level jet
should provide support for a severe convective line with numerous
damaging wind gusts. Wind gusts greater than 65 knots will be
possible during the evening along the leading edge of the line,
mainly from central Nebraska southward into far northern Kansas,
where an enhanced risk has been maintained for this outlook.

Thunderstorms will also develop across parts of the northern High
Plains during the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to be
weak from northeast Wyoming into southeast Montana, deep-layer shear
will be strong due to influence of the upper-level trough. This
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a marginal
hail threat. Strong gusty winds may also occur with the multicells
that can become organized.

...Southern High Plains...
West to southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern High Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across much of west Texas, where a dryline will form
during the afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F to
the east of the dryline should yield MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Increasing low-level convergence along the dryline during the
mid to late afternoon should result in isolated convective
initiation. Storms that can initiate despite the warm air aloft will
likely become supercellular, due to the moderate deep-layer shear.
This combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates in the 8.0 to
8.5 C/km range, will support a threat for large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The severe
threat is expected to decrease during the mid evening as a capping
inversion strengthens across the southern High Plains.

...Central and Northern Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes
region on Wednesday with west-northwesterly mid-level flow located
across much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes region during
the afternoon. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front
with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Although Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario will keep the airmass stable just downstream of the
lakes, moderate instability is forecast to develop in much of New
York and Pennsylvania by midday. Thunderstorms will develop along
the western edge of the moderate instability and move eastward into
central New York and northern Pennsylvania during the afternoon.

NAM Forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z/Wednesday show
moderate deep-layer shear with very steep lapse rates in the
boundary layer. This will be favorable for damaging wind gusts with
supercells and organized multicell line segments. Supercells with
large hail will also be possible, mainly with discrete storms that
form further east in the stronger instability. A tornado threat may
also develop during the mid to late afternoon. The greatest
potential for tornadoes is forecast across eastern New York and in
western New England, where 850 mb winds are forecast to be stronger
and 0-3 km storm relative helicities are forecast to be in the 250
to 350 m2/s2 range during the afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/25/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 261733
SWODY2
SPC AC 261731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THE
OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday
night from parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, significant
severe wind gusts, and several tornadoes are possible.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the central High Plains on
Thursday as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place
across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a
low will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley as a
trailing cold front advances southeastward across the central
Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
front during the morning across southern Kansas, in response to the
low-level jet. To the south of this convection across much of the
southern Plains, the airmass will be moist and unstable. Moderate
instability is expected to develop by midday across much of Oklahoma
and southeast Kasnas. A sharp gradient of instability may be present
during the early afternoon across far southern Kansas or far
northern Oklahoma related to an outflow boundary associated with the
morning convective cluster. Convection should gradually increase
along the outflow boundary, moving eastward across northeast
Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during the
afternoon.

In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings by
21Z/Thursday to the north of Tulsa to near Springfield have 0-6 km
shear in the 40 to 45 kt range. This will support supercell
development, mainly with cells that remain discrete or with storms
at the southern end of short line-segments that develop. 0-3 km
storm relative helicities are forecast to increase to about 200
m2/s2 across northeast Oklahoma during the late afternoon suggesting
that a tornado threat will be possible. Large hail and wind damage
will also be likely with supercells. Damaging wind gusts of greater
than 65 knot could occur, especially if a cold pool can organize.

Further southwest into west Texas and western Oklahoma, the southern
part of an upper-level trough will move across the southern High
Plains on Thursday. A surface trough is expected to deepen across
west Texas as a cold front advances southward into the Texas
Panhandle. Moderate instability should be in place by afternoon
along and south of the front across much of the southern High
Plains. A dryline will develop on the western edge of the moderate
instability with convective initiation taking place just to the east
of the dryline during the mid to late afternoon. These storms should
move eastward and affect parts of the Caprock, Low Rolling Plains
and western Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/Kg range with 0-6 km
shear between 40 and 50 kt. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail. The instability and mid-level lapse rates exceeding
8.5 C/Km will make hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter
possible. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat should
accompany supercells during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the central Plains
on Thursday as west to southwest mid-level flow remains in place
across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low
will move eastward across Iowa as a trailing cold front advances
southeastward across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A
morning MCS is expected to track eastward across southern Iowa and
northern Missouri early in the period, moving southeastward across
central and southern Illinois during the late morning and early
afternoon. This MCS could be associated with damaging wind gusts and
large hail. An outflow boundary is expected to push southward from
the convective complex into north-central Missouri by midday, along
which additional convective development is expected during the
afternoon. To the south of this outflow boundary, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place across southern and central
Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in this
unstable airmass during the afternoon, with a second MCS likely
organizing and moving southeastward across the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley during the evening.

NAM forecast soundings by 21Z across in southern and central
Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg with some directional
shear in the low-levels and about 50 kt of westerly flow at 500 mb.
This will create 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 Kt range supporting
supercell development. A mixed mode will be likely as cells rapidly
increase in coverage during the late afternoon. Short organized line
segments should be capable of damaging wind gusts, especially in
areas where low-level lapse rates become the steepest. A linear MCS
is forecast to move east-southeastward across the region during the
early evening. Damaging wind gusts of greater than 65 knots will be
possible along the leading edge of this line. Severe storms will
also be possible during the day further north across northeast
Missouri, southeast Iowa and in much of Illinois, but instability
will not be as strong which should keep any severe threat a bit more
isolated.

Due to uncertainty associated with the placement of the outflow
boundary from the morning MCS, significant changes to the Enhanced
Risk area will not be made at this time. The slight risk area has
been adjusted northward to account for new models runs that suggest
moderate instability will be possible as far north as eastern Iowa
and far northwest Illinois. The 5 percent tornado contour has been
extended northward across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley where
low-level shear will become maximized in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 271729
SWODY2
SPC AC 271727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind
damage are possible Friday in southwest Texas and southeast New
Mexico. Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms associated
with wind damage are also possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern High Plains...
A shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday as west-northwesterly mid-level flow remains over much of the southern
and central Plains. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow
will be in place across much of the southern Plains. As a result, a
moist and unstable airmass will be pushed back westward into far
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. A sharply defined dryline
will develop on the western edge of the moist airmass from the Davis
Mountains extending northward into the Sacramento Mountains of
southeast New Mexico. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline
will be in the lower to mid 60s F, with moderate to strong
instability developing by afternoon. To the east of the dryline,
MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of
the dryline with the storms move eastward into the southern High
Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

In spite of the upper-level ridge, the environment across southeast
New Mexico and far west Texas will be favorable for severe storms.
In addition to the strong instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be near 50 kt, mainly due to directional shear in the low-levels and
strong speed shear in the mid-levels. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are
forecasts to be near 8.0 C/Km, which will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. A couple of supercells are expected to
develop across the southern High Plains during the late afternoon.
These storms should also be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. Due to the presence of the upper-level ridge, the severe
threat is expected to decrease by mid to late evening as the capping
inversion becomes re-established in the southern High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the mid
Mississippi Valley on Friday as west-southwesterly mid-level flow
remains over much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a low will
move eastward from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic
during the day. To the southeast of the surface, low, a sharply
defined warm front is forecast across central and eastern Virginia. Surface-based convective development is expected near the warm front
during the early to mid afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s
F near and to the south of the warm front coupled with surface
heating should result in the development of a pocket of moderate
instability by midday. Forecast soundings at 21Z on Friday in
south-central Virginia within this pocket of instability, have
MLCAPE peaking around 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 kt
range. Winds in the boundary layer are veered to the southwest and
speed shear is present mostly in the mid-levels. 0-3 km lapse rates
are forecast to be very steep, approaching 8.0 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts with
the stronger multicell line segments. The severe threat will be
fairly confined along and just to the south of the warm front, where instability and low-level convergence will be the strongest.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies
on Friday as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the
northern High Plains. At the surface, a narrow corridor of maximized
low-level moisture will be located from eastern Colorado
north-northwestward into far southeast Montana. Weak instability is
forecast to develop along this corridor as surface temperatures peak
in the mid to late afternoon. Convection will likely initiate in the
higher terrain of northeast Wyoming and southern Montana during the
afternoon, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the northern High
Plains. In spite of the weak instability, lapse rates will be very
steep. 0-3 km lapse rates along the moist axis are forecast to
approach 9.0 C/km by 21Z/Friday with 700-500 mb lapse rates being
near 8.0 C/Km. This will be favorable for an isolated severe threat.
Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible, especially
if a rotating storm or two can form and persist during the late
afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 280525
SWODY2
SPC AC 280523

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe gusts are possible Saturday for parts of southeastern
Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.

...Central and southern High Plains...
A weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to crest a flattened
mid-level ridge over the southern High Plains on Saturday. Moist east-southeasterly upslope flow will maintain a fetch of
appreciable moisture into southwest TX and southeast NM, with the
northern periphery of the ribbon of moisture extending into eastern
CO. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with strong
heating near the higher terrain, will favor diurnal storm
development with storm coverage highest over southern CO and
northeast NM. Strong to severe multicells and perhaps a supercell
or two, will lend a risk for large hail and severe gusts. This
activity will likely form near the terrain-preferred areas and move east-southeast into the High Plains during the late
afternoon/evening.

...Northeast NC...
A mid-level trough over the OH Valley will slowly move eastward
during the period. A surface low will weaken during the day as it
moves southeast from the VA/NC border to east of the Carolinas as a
cold front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings show moderate
destabilization over the coastal plain with upper 60s F dewpoints
and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few strong to severe storms may be
capable of an isolated wind damage threat.

..Smith.. 05/28/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 011726
SWODY2
SPC AC 011724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and downburst winds are
possible in eastern New Mexico and west through south Texas
Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from
the Tennessee Valley into southern portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to move eastward from the Plains
through the MS Valley on Wednesday. A shortwave trough embedded
within this larger upper troughing is expected to move into the Mid
MS Valley, accompanied by modestly enhanced flow aloft. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will likely be centered near the
confluence of the MS and OH Rivers early Wednesday, before moving
gradually northeastward across the Lower OH Valley. As this surface
low moves northeast, an associated cold front will sweep southeast
through the Mid MS Valley, Mid-South, and western TN Valley.

Western portion of this frontal boundary is forecast to begin the
period arcing from the Arklatex into the TX Hill Country and back
through the TX South Plains. Definition of this front is expected to
weaken throughout the day amid low-level moisture advection and a
sharpening lee trough across the southern High Plains.

...Mid-South into the Lower/Middle OH Valley...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
region at the beginning of the period early Wednesday morning. These
showers and thunderstorms should gradually move northeastward while
weakening as the warm conveyor responsible for their development
also shifts northeastward. Additional storms are then anticipated
during the evening as the cold front mentioned in synopsis interacts
with the moist and moderately unstable air mass in place across the
region. Vertical shear will be modest as well, and generally
multicellular mode is anticipated. Even so, a few more organized
updrafts are possible, with an attendant threat for severe weather.
Damaging downburst winds are the primary threat, but a brief tornado
is also possible.

...Southern High Plains through the TX Hill Country...
Two areas within the region appear to favor thunderstorm
development, along the lee trough across the southern High Plains as
well as along and south of the stalled frontal boundary from the TX
Hill Country south into South TX.

Modest low-level thermodynamic conditions (i.e. surface temperatures
in mid/upper 70s and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) are
anticipated across the southern High Plains. However, steep lapse
rates atop these low-level conditions will still result in moderate
buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled modest vertical shear may result in
a few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity
of the stalled front over the TX Hill Country. Frontal position may
be augmented by antecedent storms, but the general expectation is
for late morning/early afternoon development near the front as the
air mass destabilizes. Weak vertical shear will promote mostly
multicells, but an isolated storm or two may produce damaging wind
gusts.

..Mosier.. 06/01/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 021721
SWODY2
SPC AC 021720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle
Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary
threat. Other strong to severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys as well as eastern Oregon.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will push through
the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of the boundary,
moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the
Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. In the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will impact the region
by late afternoon into the evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both
ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre-frontal
confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. There
remain uncertainties as to where the greatest boundary layer
destabilization will occur given cloud cover within the warm
conveyor belt as well as warm advection precipitation in North Carolina/southern Virginia. Forecast soundings indicate a greater
potential for cloud breaks from northern Virginia into southeastern
New York. This area will also see a modest increase in 850 mb flow
by afternoon/evening which will increase the threat for damaging
gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Father north into eastern New York/Vermont, there is less certainty on the degree of
destabilization, but relatively strong mid-level forcing should
promote scattered storms with some attendant threat for wind damage.
Mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, but where greater
buoyancy develops isolated large hail will be possible.

...Tennessee Valley into Ohio Valley...
Ongoing clouds and precipitation early in the period will tend to
keep buoyancy modest across the region. Portions of the Mid-South
may see relatively greater clearing/destabilization during the day.
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote
marginally organized storms along the weak surface boundary.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...
The mid-level trough and attendant cold front will be the focus for
isolated to possibly widely scattered convection from eastern Oregon
into the Idaho Panhandle. Steep lapse rates are expected both at the
surface and aloft. Storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 06/02/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across a portion of Montana on
Friday with large hail and damaging gusts possible. Other strong to
severe storms may occur from the central and eastern Carolinas into
a portion of the Middle Atlantic. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat with these storms.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will be along the Appalachians early in
the period and will move into the Mid-Atlantic by early afternoon. A
weak cold front will move into the Northeast southwestward into the
Carolinas and generally stall/weaken with time. In the Northwest, a
strong trough will move into Washington and Oregon with modest
height falls across the northern Rockies. An attendant cold front
will move into Idaho/Montana.

...Montana...
Storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain of
southwestern Montana as modest height falls occur during the
afternoon. These initial storms are likely to be supercellular given
40-45 kts of effective shear. With at least some mid/high cloud
cover moving in from the southwest, the amount of buoyancy is not
certain, but around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is plausible. Forecast
soundings show steep lapse rates at low and mid levels. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible. Some consideration was
given to increasing hail probabilities with these initial
supercells, but there is enough question as to storm converge and
intensity that an upgrade to 15% will be withheld. As storms move
east towards the plains, storms are likely to become more outflow
dominant as they encounter greater low-level temperature/dewpoints
spreads and weak low-level shear. The primary threat will transition
to damaging winds. A more organized cold-pool-driven wind threat is
uncertain given the weak low-level shear.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Some destabilization is possible as cloud cover and precipitation
along the warm conveyor moves offshore. Storms are expected to
develop along a relatively weak boundary approaching the region.
Though the trough axis will exit the region around midday, enough
lingering mid-level flow will promote 30-40 kts of effective shear.
The degree of destabilization remains in question, but 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE appears probable. With only modest shear and mid-level
lapse rates, the primary severe threat with these storms will likely
be damaging wind gusts.

...Southern New England...
A few storms may develop by afternoon underneath the upper-level
trough and along the front. Buoyancy is not expected to be large on
account of cloud cover. Even if greater destabilization is able to
occur, an unfavorable overlap with weak shear is expected as
stronger flow will have moved eastward by the afternoon. The window
in time and space for a strong gust or two will be relatively
limited.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 06/03/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 040550
SWODY2
SPC AC 040549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible across a portion of the northern
Plains and northern New England Saturday.

...Northern Plains...

Shortwave ridging will prevail much of the day across the northern
High Plains. However, an upstream shortwave trough will approach
this region from the west during the evening accompanied by a cold
front. Low-level moisture will remain modest in the pre-frontal warm
sector with surface dewpoints generally from the upper 40s to low
50s F. However, strong diabatic heating will contribute to deeply
mixed boundary layers with steep lapse rates supporting 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Deeper forcing for ascent will be limited during the
day, given proximity to upper ridge. However, a pre-frontal trough,
the mountains of northern WY and southern MT as well as the Black
Hills of SD could serve as foci for a few storms to develop as the
boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. This activity will
spread northeast within the frontal zone during the evening posing a
threat for mainly damaging wind and some hail through eastern MT and
western through northern ND.

...Northern New England...

Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern Saskatchewan
should reach northern New England Saturday afternoon accompanied by
a belt of strengthening deep-layer winds. Deeper forcing for ascent accompanying this feature and presence of modest instability with
800-1200 J/kg MUCAPE may support development of a few thunderstorms
by mid to late afternoon. Activity will spread southeast during the
evening within the evolving northwest flow regime. It now appears
that the boundary layer will become sufficiently unstable during the
afternoon into early evening to support surface-based storms, with
30-40 kt effective bulk shear promoting organized structures
including bowing segments and a few supercells. Locally strong to
damaging gusts should be the main threat, though some hail and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

...Upper Mississippi Valley through Northern Great Lakes...

A stalled front should reside from northern MN through upper MI
Saturday where the atmosphere will likely become moderately
unstable. This weak boundary may begin to lift north as a warm front
later in the day. While convergence is expected to remain weak along
this feature, there is some chance that a few storms could develop
with afternoon peak heating. Should storms develop, they may become
capable of producing a few instances of locally strong wind gusts
and hail.

..Dial.. 06/04/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 071732
SWODY2
SPC AC 071730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern High
Plains Tuesday, with the greatest risk likely during the afternoon
and evening. Very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes
will be possible. A few storms with locally strong gusts will also
be possible from western portions of the Tennessee Valley into the
middle Mississippi Valley.

...Northern High Plains...

Shortwave trough currently approaching southern CA will deamplify as
it ejects quickly north northeast Tuesday in response to an
amplifying upstream synoptic trough. This impulse will begin to
impact the northern High Plains by late afternoon or early evening
Tuesday. A surface low is forecast to develop over northeast
WY/southeast MT in response to the approaching shortwave trough,
with a warm front extending eastward from the low through ND during
day. A dryline will extend southward from the low through the
central High Plains. Boundary layer dewpoints generally from the
upper 50s to low 60s F will advect northward through the warm sector
beneath steep lapse rates, supporting strong instability with
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely develop along and north of
the warm front during the late afternoon and evening as the
low-level jet and deeper forcing for ascent increases in response to
the approaching shortwave trough. High based storms may also develop
over the higher terrain of southern MT and intensify as they move
north and interact with the warm front. Vertical wind shear will
strengthen to 40-50 kt with the approach of the impulse supporting
initial supercell storm modes capable of very large hail and
damaging wind. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, especially
with storms interacting with the warm front before becoming elevated
deeper onto the cooler side of this boundary. An upgrade to ENH risk
might be warranted for a portion of this region in day 1 updates.

Farther south from western SD into western NE, additional storms
will likely develop along the dryline with both supercell and
multicells expected before storms evolve into a linear MCS. Damaging
wind and large hail will be the primary threat through the evening.


...Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley regions...

Shortwave trough embedded within weak winds aloft will drift slowly
east into the mid MS and western TN Valley regions Tuesday. A very
moist boundary layer will remain in place, but there still remains
some uncertainty regarding where corridors of best destabilization
will occur given potential impacts of any ongoing thunderstorms.
Nevertheless, some cloud breaks and pockets of heating / low-level destabilization are expected, and storms may intensify along
residual outflow boundaries during the day. Isolated damaging wind
will be the main threat from mid afternoon into the early evening.

..Dial.. 06/07/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 081725
SWODY2
SPC AC 081723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central
and western Montana on Wednesday. A severe storm or two may also
develop late Wednesday afternoon along the dryline in west Texas.
Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary concerns in both
areas.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from northern Mexico
northeastward through the central Plains into the Upper Midwest
early Wednesday. A weak embedded upper low will likely exist on the northeastern periphery of this upper ridge over the mid MS Valley.
Western periphery of the ridge will be characterized by moderate
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of western CONUS upper troughing.
Shortwave trough embedded within this western CONUS upper troughing
is expected to move through northern/central CA, reaching the
western Great Basin by early Thursday morning. As it does, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the northern Rockies
southward through much of the Great Basin.

A moist air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, contributing
to widespread thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the upper low
over much of the OH and TN Valleys. Additionally, convectively
enhanced vorticity maximum resulting from antecedent thunderstorms
across the Arklatex on Tuesday/Tuesday night is forecast to move
eastward through the Lower MS Valley, likely providing the impetus
for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Lower MS Valley
and much of the Southeast.

...MT...
A surface low is expected to move northeastward from eastern MT
through ND from late Tuesday night through early Wednesday
afternoon. An attendant cold front will push southward/southeastward
through much of the northern High Plains. However, post-frontal
upslope flow is still expected to advect low-level moisture back
northwestward through the northern High Plains during the afternoon. Additionally, development of a second surface low is anticipated
across southeast MT Wednesday evening, strengthening the easterly
low-level across much of northern MT and contributing to further
moisture advection. Consequently, a relatively moist and unstable
air mass will likely be in place ahead of storms (triggered by the
approaching shortwave trough) moving off the higher terrain
Wednesday evening. These thermodynamic conditions coupled with
strong vertical shear will support supercells capable of large hail
and strong wind gusts. A low-probability tornado potential exists
near HVR and vicinity with any organized storms that occur before
03Z.

...Far West TX into Southwest OK...
Strong instability (i.e. 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) is forecast to
develop along the dryline during the afternoon. Convective
inhibition will likely suppress deep convection across much of the
region but a few storms may take root in areas where low-level
convergence is maximized. A deeply mixed boundary layer and weak
flow suggests any storms that do develop would be slow moving and
outflow dominant. Even so, a few storms could become strong enough
to produce large hail and/or strong wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 091727
SWODY2
SPC AC 091726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening
over portions of the northern High Plains and northern Plains. All
severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, 70+ mph
wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from northern Mexico north-northeastward across the Great Plains early Thursday morning.
This upper ridging is expected to then dampen throughout the day as
a strong shortwave trough, initially over the western Great Basin,
progresses northeastward through the northern/central Rockies and
eventually through the northern High Plains. This shortwave will
likely become increasingly negatively tilted throughout this
progression while the stronger mid-level flow attendant to the
system also spreading into the northern High Plains/northern Plains.
Strong buoyancy will exist within the air mass over the northern
High Plains/northern Plains ahead of this shortwave, contributing to
the risk for severe thunderstorms (discussed in more detail below).

Farther east, broad but weak upper troughing will likely persist as
a weak embedded upper low drifts slowly eastward across the TN and
middle OH Valleys. The air mass in vicinity and downstream of this
upper low will be moist and at least marginally unstable,
contributing to the potential for numerous thunderstorms across much
of the OH and TV Valleys, northern portions of the Southeast, and
much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Elsewhere, an unstable air mass may interact with an east-west
oriented boundary across MN and WI east of the upper ridge, with a
few strong storms possible.

...Northern High Plains into the Northern/Central Plains...
Ample low-level moisture is expected to be in place early Thursday
morning ahead of the shortwave trough (and any associated surface
features) mentioned in the synopsis. Deep mixing is anticipated
throughout the day, but persistent and strong low-level moisture
advection should keep dewpoints in the 60s. Less mixing along the
warm front could lead to a corridor of upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints
central ND into far northeast MT by Thursday afternoon.

Surface low is forecast to deepen over southeast MT. Low-level
convergence along the lee trough extending southward from this low
as well as near the low itself is expected to result in convective
initiation once the air mass destabilizes during the late afternoon. Large-scale ascent will also be increasing during this time, aiding
this convective initiation. The deeply mixed, strongly unstable, and
moderately sheared environment will support initial supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail and strong wind
gusts. Backed low-level winds in vicinity of the surface low may
result in a locally greater tornado threat near the MT/ND/SD border intersection.

Upscale growth into one or more convective lines is anticipated soon
after the initially discrete mode. The downstream air mass across
the northern and central Plains will be very supportive of continued
eastward progression, with severe wind gusts possible throughout the
evening across much of ND, SD, and NE.

...East-Central MN into Northern WI and western Upper MI...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along a
weak surface boundary extended across the region. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will result in ample instability, which may support a few
strong updrafts during near peak heating. Given the abundant
moisture in place, a few water-loaded downbursts could occur with
the strongest storms.

..Mosier.. 06/09/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 101725
SWODY2
SPC AC 101723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday from southwest Iowa
across much of eastern Kansas and into northern Oklahoma.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to extend from northern Mexico
northeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. A
compact, negatively titled shortwave trough will move across ND into
southern Manitoba along the northwestern periphery of the upper
ridging, contributing to some modest dampening. This shortwave is
expected to force the development of a well-organized convective
line over the northern Plains late Thursday evening.

This line is then forecast to progress eastward/southeastward
overnight. Its location early Friday morning will depend on the
speed of its forward progression overnight Thursday, which is tied
to numerous low-predictability factors regulating MCS maintenance
(including rear-inflow jet strength and cold pool/vertical shear
balance). Given this low predictability, 5-percent severe
probabilities will be maintained and expanded for this outlook.
However, the very moist and unstable air mass expected to be in
place ahead of the outflow will support strong updrafts, and the
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. As such, upgrades
will likely be needed in future outlooks once the location of the
storm outflow becomes more certain.

...Middle/Upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast...
A broad and relatively weak shortwave trough is also expected to
move from the middle OH Valley eastward/southeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic. The air mass in the vicinity and downstream of this
shortwave will be very moist and modestly buoyancy, resulting
widespread thunderstorm development across from the middle/upper OH
and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Southeast. Weak
shear will likely preclude much updraft organization, resulting in a predominately multicellular, outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so,
some forward-propagating line segments may exist for a
short-duration. Additionally, the very moist air mass will
contribute to the risk of water-loaded downbursts. The
isolated/brief nature of these threats and their reliance on more
mesoscale processes (such as storm mergers and outflow boundaries)
for development precludes adding severe probabilities with this
outlook. However, one or more small areas may be needed in later
outlooks.

..Mosier.. 06/10/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 190555
SWODY2
SPC AC 190554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms may occur Sunday into Sunday
night across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Large hail, severe/damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes
all appear possible.

...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
A large-scale upper trough should amplify while moving eastward
across the north-central CONUS and central Canada on Sunday. An
embedded shortwave trough with enhanced mid-level westerly flow is
forecast to move east-southeastward from the northern Plains across
the Upper Midwest and to the Great Lakes by Sunday night. At the
surface, a weak low should develop northeastward from the
central/northern Plains towards the Upper Midwest through the day.
There is uncertainty with possible secondary surface low formation
and subsequent deepening over Lower MI and vicinity Sunday night.
Regardless, a cold front will likely sweep southeastward across the
Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley through the period. A warm front
should also develop northward in tandem with the surface low.

Mainly elevated storms aided by low-level warm/moist advection may
be ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning across IA and
vicinity. Although this activity may pose an isolated threat for
hail and/or gusty winds, a more substantial severe threat is
expected to develop by Sunday afternoon along and ahead of the cold
front. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates emanating from the
Plains should overspread parts of the Midwest and surface warm
sector. Rich low-level moisture is also expected to be in place
ahead of the cold front. As diurnal heating occurs, at least
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the warm sector.
Strengthening mid-level westerly flow ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough will likely foster 35-50 kt of effective bulk
shear.

Organized severe storms should develop along and ahead of the cold
front through the afternoon, and a mix of supercells and
multicells/clusters appears possible. It remains unclear whether
storms will reintensify Sunday afternoon ahead of the decayed
morning convection and possible related MCV that may develop. If
they do, then a focused area of severe risk may exist across
northern IL into southern Lower MI with a small bowing cluster.
Regardless, large hail should be the primary threat with initial
semi-discrete activity Sunday afternoon. Severe/damaging winds will
probably become more of a concern as storms grow upscale into
multiple clusters along the front Sunday evening/night. Given the
degree of instability forecast, at least an isolated threat for
severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the central Plains to
the OH Valley overnight. Finally, a risk for a few tornadoes may
exist along/south of the warm front as a southwesterly low-level jet
providing enhanced 0-1 km shear shifts eastward across the Midwest
into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley regions through Sunday
night.

...Southeast...
Some form of a tropical cyclone should continue moving
east-northeastward across the Southeast on Sunday. Even though this
system will be inland and is expected to remain rather weak per
latest NHC forecast, 45-50+ kt winds around 850 mb should still be
present in the eastern half of the cyclone's circulation. Related
strong low-level shear combined with modest daytime heating will
probably continue to support an isolated severe threat from parts of
GA into the Carolinas through the period. Given the strength of the
low-level flow forecast, brief tornadoes and occasional strong/gusty
winds appear possible with any low-topped storms that can develop.

..Gleason.. 06/19/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 191732
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...NORTHWEST IN...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across
parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large
hail, severe/damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear
possible.

...Mid MO/Mid MS Valleys to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday
morning across the Mid MO Valley, remnant from evening/overnight
activity on Saturday. Guidance is in good agreement that this
cluster to continue northeastward throughout the day, although the
strength of the storms within this cluster as well as the speed of
its eastward progression are some what uncertain. Current
expectation is for storms within the cluster to gradually intensify
throughout the day, with some large hail and damaging wind gusts
occasionally possible, particularly as it moves across southern
Lower MI.

Outflow boundary left over from this cluster as well as the
approaching cold front will then become the main foci for convective
initiation during the evening across the Mid MS Valley. Moderate to
strong instability is anticipated in the vicinity of these
boundaries. Storms developing along the remnant outflow boundary
will likely have an initially cellular mode. Moderate mid-level
westerly flow will also be in place across the region, contributing
to moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells.
Steep low-level lapse rates will likely promote an outflow-dominant
storm mode, with storms quickly transitioning to bowing line
segments. Storm outflows may eventually amalgamate into a more
coherent MCS structure, but confidence in organized MCS development
is currently low.

Primary threat with initial development will be large to very large
hail. Low-level shear appears strong enough to support a few
tornadoes if storms can remain discrete. After the initially
discrete mode, the transition to line segments will result in
damaging wind gusts becoming the main threat.

...Central Plains/Central High Plains...
Two scenarios will contribute to isolated severe thunderstorms
across the region on Sunday. The first is late afternoon
thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the Palmer Divide
southward to the lee of the Sangre De Cristo mountains in northeast
NM. In this area, high based storms moving off the high terrain may
contribute to isolated damaging wind gusts.

The second scenario is late evening/overnight thunderstorms expected
to develop in the wake of the surface cold front with the modest
ascent and mid-level moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough. These storms will likely be based around 700 mb, but enough
vertical shear will exists between 700mb and the equilibrium level
for a few supercells.

...GA/NC/SC..
Some form of a tropical cyclone should continue moving
east-northeastward across the Southeast on Sunday. Even though this
system will be inland, 45-50+ kt winds around 850 mb should still be
present in the eastern half of the cyclone's circulation. Related
strong low-level shear combined with modest daytime heating will
probably continue to support an isolated severe threat from parts of
GA into the Carolinas through the period. Given the strength of the
low-level flow forecast, brief tornadoes and occasional strong/gusty
winds appear possible with any low-topped storms that can develop.

..Mosier.. 06/19/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 200559
SWODY2
SPC AC 200558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday from
parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Ohio
Valley. Damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes all appear possible.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and the Ohio Valley...
A large-scale upper trough should continue to amplify while it moves
eastward across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Monday. A belt
of 40-60 kt southwesterly mid-level winds should accompany this
upper trough. A surface low initially over the northern Great Lakes
is forecast to develop northeastward into southern Ontario and
Quebec through the day. A trailing cold front should sweep generally east-southeastward across much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
OH Valley through the period.

Low-level convergence along the cold front and a pre-frontal trough
should encourage convective development across these regions by
early Monday afternoon as ascent preceding the upper trough
overspreads the warm sector. A warm and moist low-level airmass is
expected to be in place, with surface dewpoints generally in the
upper 60s to low 70s. The development of around 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE appears probable by peak afternoon heating, with locally
higher values possible. Even though the strongest mid-level flow
associated with the upper trough may tend to lag the cold front
slightly, there will still be enough strengthening of the wind
profile with height to support about 30-40 kt of effective bulk
shear.

Accordingly, a mix of multicells and supercells appears possible
with initial development, with the supercell potential perhaps
maximized with northward extent into parts of NY/VT/NH/ME where the
deep-layer shear should be strongest. This area appears to have the
best potential for isolated severe hail given the more favorable
storm mode and cooler temperatures aloft. A couple tornadoes also
appear possible across this region as 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH
should exist as a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly jet shifts
northeastward across the Northeast through the day. With time, one
or more squall lines should progress eastward and pose mainly a
damaging wind threat across much of the interior Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. Current expectations are for this convection to
gradually weaken Monday evening/night as it approaches the coast due
to the loss of daytime heating and increasing convective inhibition.


...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains...
Scattered to numerous storms will likely develop along and ahead of
the south-southeastward moving cold front during the day. Mid-level
flow is forecast to be somewhat weaker from the TN Valley into the
lower MS Valley and southern Plains. But, it should still be
sufficient to support modest deep-layer shear and some convective
organization. Boundary-layer instability should generally be
stronger across these regions compared to locations farther to the
northeast. A mainly linear mode is expected, and strong to damaging
wind gusts should be the main threat as clusters of storms move south-southeastward through at least the early evening before
weakening. This isolated severe threat may persist into Monday night
across parts of TX, as a greater reservoir of instability will
likely exist over this region.

..Gleason.. 06/20/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)