ACUS11 KWNS 261614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261613
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-262115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern Maryland...central to northwest
Pennsylvania...and far western New York

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 261613Z - 262115Z

SUMMARY...A wintry mix, eventually transitioning to primarily light
to moderate freezing rain, will spread southeast through the
afternoon into northwest and central Pennsylvania and western New York.

DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports and ASOS/AWOS observations are
beginning to show areas of light freezing rain and sleet spreading
from far northeast OH into northwestern PA and far western NY over
the past 1-2 hours. Although regional 12z soundings sampled a stout
dry layer from the surface to about 3 km, the recent sleet/freezing
rain reports indicate that preceding precipitation has allowed for
adequate saturation in the mid/low-levels to allow hydrometeors to
reach the surface. Consequently, surface sleet/freezing rain amounts
will likely increase through the afternoon as more widespread
precipitation (attendant to a mid-level wave currently upstream
across southeast MI) overspreads the region.

Correlation Coefficient imagery from KPBZ and KCCX are sampling a
melting layer between 4-8 kft ARL over central PA, which should be
maintained through the afternoon amid increasing warm advection
between 925-850 mb. Near the surface, weak thermal advection below
0.5 km should maintain sub-freezing temperatures and support
freezing hydrometeors. Although a mix of sleet/freezing rain is
expected over the next couple of hours, a transition to primarily
freezing rain is anticipated this afternoon as the depth/strength of
the warm nose aloft increases. Latest forecast guidance supports
this scenario and suggests that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05
to 0.1 inch/hour will be possible across central PA into far western
NY - especially under heavier precipitation bands and/or where
precipitation rates are locally enhanced by weak convective processes.

..Moore.. 12/26/2025

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 42397956 42537915 42517885 40907699 40487663 40117667
39707684 39537725 39457795 39547855 39687892 39977920
40187931 40427948 40537956 41428044 41768079 41958070
42148015 42397956

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