508
WTNT41 KNHC 232043
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Ana Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021
500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021

Other than brief puff of convection late this morning, tiny Ana has
been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours. ASCAT
overpass data from this morning indicated that the peak winds had
deceased to 35 kt. Due to the lack of convection since that time,
it is reasonable to assume that the vortex has spun down a bit, and
therefore the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 30 kt.

Ana is over cool waters and surrounded by very dry air in the
mid-troposphere. The brief convection that did occur today was
quickly stripped away, indicating that the anticipated increase in
shear has begun. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation of
Ana is approaching a strong subtropical upper-level jet just to its
east, which is expected to produce even stronger shear over the
cyclone. These conditions should prevent further convection, if any,
from surviving, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by tonight. What is left of Ana's low-level circulation
should open into a trough on Monday as it is absorbed by a large
baroclinic zone approaching from the northwest.

The depression continues to accelerate northeastward, and the
forward motion is now northeastward at 15 kt. An accelerating
northwestward motion is anticipated until dissipation as Ana
gets caught up in increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 37.5N 57.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 39.4N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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