ACUS01 KWNS 291238
SWODY1
SPC AC 291237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east
and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
the central Plains, with another shortwave in its wake over central
WY. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward,
reaching MO by this afternoon before then pivoting more
northeastward from the Mid MS Valley into Lower MI. This progression
will be accompanied by a strengthening of the mid-level flow as it
spreads from the central Plains into the OH and TN Valleys.

A surface low, recently analyzed over central KS, will accompany the
lead shortwave as well, moving rapidly northeastward across MO and
IL before ending the period over Lower MI. A cold front attendant to
this low will sweep eastward across the Ozarks and southeastward
across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. A large area of
elevated thunderstorms is expected from the Arklatex into the Mid MS
Valley, supported by strong southwesterly low-level flow and
associated warm-air advection ahead of the front. More intense and
potentially severe storms are anticipated along and ahead of the
front across central/east TX and western LA.

...Central/East TX...Western LA...
Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints as far north as the
TX Big Country, with 60s dewpoints farther south in the TX Hill
Country. Low-level moisture advection is forecast to continue
throughout the day, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching the Red River
and low 60s dewpoints likely reaching the Metroplex vicinity ahead
of the cold front. Primary thunderstorm activity is anticipated
along the front as it interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant
airmass ahead of it. Moderate mid-level flow is expected, but the
fast-moving front will still likely lead to a prevalence of undercut
updrafts. Even so, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could
support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges
south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some damaging gusts are possible
as the front moves quickly toward the coast and reaches the Gulf
early Sunday morning.

There is a low-probability chance that thunderstorms develop from
the TX Hill Country into the Brazos Valley during the afternoon,
supported by low-level confluence within a diurnally destabilized
airmass. If any of these updrafts are able to mature, there is
enough low-level curvature to support transient supercell structures
along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and
marginally severe hail are possible with any stronger,
longer-duration updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 11/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251941
SWODY1
SPC AC 251939

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts
of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New
Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota
Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.

Severe probabilities were reduced over parts of eastern MS and
western AL where widespread precipitation is limiting
destabilization. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the
ongoing outlook.

..Hart.. 05/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into
southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale
ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a
mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However,
ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a
localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.

...Minnesota Arrowhead...

The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into
northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep
mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and
daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support
moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear
for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging winds with the stronger cores.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...

A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the
central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor
low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading
northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the
development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall
severe risk.

...Northern Rockies...

An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While
low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster
weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across
the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse
rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with
this activity.

...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas...

An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly
north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period.
Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and
southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass
downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may
occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.

...Central Texas...

A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is
slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection
with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its
proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms.

$$


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