AWUS01 KWNH 242326
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-250525-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/TX Hill Country into Northern TX
and Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242325Z - 250525Z

SUMMARY...Well-organized clusters and bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will evolve going into the overnight hours.
Scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely, which is
expected to include some regional-scale urban flooding impacts,
some of which may be significant.

DISCUSSION...Early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive axis of well-organized cold-topped convection impacting
portions of the Edwards Plateau and TX Big Country, with generally
cooling cloud top trends and the convection inclusive of multicell
and supercell modes.

The environment across much of the region is moderate to strongly
unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg pooled across
the region well ahead of an upstream cold front and deeper layer
trough ejecting out across the southern High Plains. This
instability which is being aided by a moist southerly low-level
jet of 30 to 40+ kts is working in tandem with a sheared and
dynamically forced vertical column to support strong/organized
convection capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour.

Over the next several hours, the convection will tend to take on
the character of a QLCS, but with embedded swaths of convection
where cell-training and supercells will be a notable concern. This
will include portions of the Edwards Plateau and TX Hill Country
going through the late-evening hours. However, numerous runs of
the HRRR guidance along with recent RRFS solutions support an area
of more focused and potentially higher-end rainfall impacts/flash
flooding concerns closer into the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan
area along with potentially adjacent areas of the Red River Valley
of the South. This is being supported by the latest RAP analysis
which does showing the pooling of higher theta-e air/moisture and
instability nosing up across north-central TX toward the Red River
Valley. This is also in close proximity to a stationary front
which in itself is expected to interact with the low-level jet for
an area of stronger low-level forcing/convergence.

On a regional level, the more organized swaths of convection are
expected to yield locally 2 to 4+ inches of rain which will mainly
be connected to short-term cell-training considerations. However,
some of the aforementioned guidance, especially across
north-central TX (DFW metroplex region and adjacent suburbia) may
see 5+ inch totals given trends toward a more unstable/strongly
forced regime setting up this evening.

Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely going into the
overnight hours and this will include notable urban flooding
concerns. Some of these impacts may be significant, and areas near
the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in particular should
closely monitor this situation over the next several hours.

Areas also in the more flashy/sensitive TX Hill Country area will
be at risk for elevated rainfall totals and flash flooding
concerns late this evening and overnight that may be locally
significant. This area could be the subject of a more targeted MPD consideration later tonight as conditions warrant.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35019724 34799567 33509523 32359546 31159624
30269725 29509860 29180037 29370140 30180214
30850194 31690068 32709927 33769832

$$
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