Mesoscale Discussion 2037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025
Areas affected...Middle TN and far north AL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606...
Valid 052259Z - 060100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606
continues.
SUMMARY...A more concentrated swath of strong to localized severe
gusts is possible with potential for a slow-moving cluster to
accelerate across mainly southern Middle Tennessee through
mid-evening.
DISCUSSION...The deepest convective cores have persisted over the
past couple hours across southwest TN. These have congealed into an
initially slow-moving cluster into southern Middle TN with forward
motion of only 15-20 kts. But with strengthening of the surface
temperature gradient, from upper 60s in the emerging cold pool to
85-90 F persisting ahead of the outflow, a more concentrated swath
of strong to localized severe gusts may evolve over the next 2-3
hours. This would be coincident with probable acceleration of the
cold pool that yields more moderate westerly storm motions into
mid-evening. This might eventually approach the southeastern edge of
WW 606 and necessitate a local areal extension. Weak low-level west-southwesterlies evident in area VWP data does lower confidence
on just how robust the damaging wind threat may become.