ACUS11 KWNS 051929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051929
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas...extreme southeast Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051929Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms are expected through the
afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail
may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a surface cold
front across western Kansas into eastern Colorado, just south of a
CBK-GLD-ITR line, and is gradually propagating southeast. Convection
will continue to gradually deepen and intensify with continued
strong diurnal heating and associated boundary-layer mixing.
Deep-layer steep lapse rates are in place, with the latest RAP PFCs
suggesting boundary-layer mixing past 700 mb. 8-9 C/km lapse rates
are present within the lowest 2 km, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km lapse
rates in the mid levels. Relatively stronger flow aloft (i.e. 50+
kts) is contained roughly above 500 mb. Still, the presence of a
deep, dry sub-cloud layer will promote enough evaporative cooling
for efficient downward momentum transport of the mid-level flow with
any of the stronger storm cores that can develop. A brief instance
or two marginally severe hail is also possible given the steep
mid-level lapse rates.

Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain brief and
sparse overall. A WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 36470180 36890216 37340219 37830203 38290181 38510147
38720086 38650036 38450003 37959977 37389973 36889982
36639999 36500021 36470180
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 091832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091831
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-092100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...far southeast Colorado...and
the far western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091831Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico and
far southeast Colorado over the next few hours will pose a threat
for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. This threat will
remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A deepening cluster of cumulus within a post
cold-frontal upslope flow regime across north/northeastern NM is
noted in recent GOES imagery. A few lightning strikes have been
noted in the past hour with transient convective cells, hinting that
more robust convection is possible in the next 1-2 hours. Across the
high Plains to the east, temperatures are gradually warming into the
low 60s amid partly cloudy skies. Cool temperatures aloft atop the
warming boundary-layer are steepening low-level lapse rates to 7-9
C/km, and this trend should continue with eastward extent through
the late afternoon. Although instability will remain somewhat
limited due to minimal low-level moisture (only around 500 J/kg
MLCAPE is expected), 30-45 knot effective bulk shear magnitudes may
support some storm organization and an isolated hail threat adjacent
to the higher terrain. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, strong
downburst winds appear to be the more likely hazard. In general, the
localized forcing for ascent and limited instability will likely
result in only a few strong to severe storms that may propagate as
far east as the NM/TX border by early evening. The overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34710551 35170586 35680611 36390582 36940551 37290510
37470460 37450410 37130357 36620325 35960290 34930287
34320307 34300453 34710551
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 111847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111846
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-112045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...and the
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111846Z - 112045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A loosely-organized squall line may be capable of damaging
winds as it continues east along the Gulf Coast. However, confidence
in this threat is low, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent velocity data from KMOB shows outflow associated
with a weak and loosely organized squall line becoming slightly more
organized as it propagates to the east across southwestern AL and
into the FL Panhandle. VWP observations from KMOB show 20-30 knots
winds in the lowest 2-3 km associated with this line, which is
supported by recent observed wind gusts up to 25 knots at the
surface. While severe winds do not appear likely in the near term,
the potential for damaging winds may increase over the next 1-3
hours as the line moves into southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL
Panhandle where low-level lapse rates are steepening to 7-8 C/km
amid modest daytime heating. The environment ahead of this line
remains supportive for storm maintenance, but it is not immediately
clear if the damaging wind potential will be realized along the
entire line - mainly due to weak low-level shear in the lowest 4 km.
Pockets of intensification are noted in GOES IR imagery over the
past 30 minutes, which suggests that at least localized strong winds
are possible. Due to the low confidence in a more widespread/robust
severe threat, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31398810 31858797 32168747 32368612 32418533 32298476
31718439 31008445 30178501 30048536 30298602 30378661
30328707 30278761 30288793 30928802 31398810
$$
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