• Flood potential NE/IA

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Thu Jun 26 06:59:00 2025
    AWUS01 KWNH 260747
    FFGMPD
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-261346-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0518
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    347 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

    Areas affected...much of Nebraska, western Iowa

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 260746Z - 261346Z

    Summary...Flash flood potential continues - especially near Grand
    Island, NE where 5-10 inches of rainfall has occurred over the
    past 12 hours.

    Discussion...Extensive flash flood impacts have occurred near
    Grand Island, NE earlier, where a couple of convective bands began
    to train over the region and produce 3-6 inches of rainfall over
    the past 6 hours. Since that time, upscale growth and slight
    weakening of convection across south-central Nebraska has enabled
    the heaviest rain to propagate just east of the Grand Island
    region.

    Unfortunately, an upstream mid-level impulse and convergence on
    the nose of 40-kt 850mb flow over Kansas to produce renewed
    convection across west-central Nebraska. These storms will allow
    for continued rainfall and perhaps another 1 inch of rain on top
    of prior significant rainfall, potentially exacerbating impacts
    near the Grand Island area. This additional rainfall risk will
    persist for at least another 3 hours or so (through 1030Z/5:30am
    CDT) until the upstream mid-level impulse passes the region.

    Additional rainfall will persist east of Grand Island through
    Columbus, Omaha Metro, and portions of western Iowa through 13Z/8a
    CDT. Rain rates should remain relatively low with this activity
    due to modest instability and appreciable (30-kt) movement,
    although prior rainfall (as much as 3-5 inches along this axis)
    have lowered FFG thresholds and made ground conditions
    sensitive/conducive for excessive runoff. Another 1-2 inches of
    rainfall along this axis could contribute to isolated/continued
    flash flooding this morning.

    Cook

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

    ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 43109403 42439339 41599368 40889554 40269810
    40150037 40600098 41470061 42119875 42659595

    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)