From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Wed Jun 25 08:17:00 2025
AWUS01 KWNH 250957
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-251530-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Southwest TX
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 250955Z - 251530Z
SUMMARY...Some additional clusters of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be possible going into the morning hours which
will maintain at least some potential for flash flooding.
DISCUSSION...The predawn GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
dual-pol radar still shows some areas of locally heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity impacting areas of central and southern NM
along with far southwest TX. A slow-moving shortwave trough over
the Southwest continues to slowly pivot eastward, and this is
driving some right-entrance region upper-jet dynamics which
coupled with the very moist and modestly unstable airmass across
the region should favor a threat for these clusters of convection
to persist into the morning hours.
PWs across the region remain the same as earlier and are on the
order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches which represents the 90th to 95th
percentile of climatology. CIRA-ALPW data continues to show a deep
layer tropical connection of moisture lifting north across Mexico
and up across the southern Rockies/High Plains around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the Eastern U.S.
The latest RAP analsyis shows MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
locally over the region, and this coupled with the very moist
environment and local ororgaphics should still favor some rainfall
rates that may reach 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells.
The 06Z HREF and 00Z REFS data suggests some potential for
additional FFG exceedances going into the morning hours, with
locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain possible going through
15Z (9AM MDT) where the stronger remaining clusters of convection
persist.
Therefore, a threat for additional areas of flash flooding will be
maintained at least over the next several hours. This will include
locally enhanced runoff concerns for the normally dry
washes/arroyos and any burn scar locations including for the
Sacramento Mountains.
From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Sat Aug 30 13:58:12 2025
AWUS01 KWNH 301806
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-310005-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Areas affected...southeastern NM into far western TX
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 301805Z - 310005Z
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over
southeastern NM into far western TX over the next few hours. Slow
movement and brief backbuilding/training will pose a flash flood
threat from 1-2 in/hr rain rates through 00Z (7 PM CDT).
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 1745Z showed building
cumulus over the Sacramento Mountains with mostly clear skies
surrounding much of NM into western TX. Moisture profiles are a
bit higher for southeastern NM into western TX compared to
yesterday and the 12Z soundings from ELP and MAF showed PW values
near the 95th percentile for the end of August. The region resided
on the northern/northwestern edge of a mid to upper-level ridge
centered over northern Mexico into TX, with 0-6 km AGL layer winds
only about 5 kt (slightly weaker into the Big Bend region of TX),
which will result in slow storm motions.
Continued heating is expected to allow MLCAPE values to rise into
the 500-1500 J/kg range by 21Z across southeastern NM and
southward into western TX. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop within the areas of higher terrain first, and then advance
eastward into southern portions of the southern High Plains where
surface dewpoints ranged from the lower to upper 60s. At the
surface, winds had an easterly component on the cool side of a
stationary front which draped westward and then northward through
far western TX which should add an upslope component to the setup.
A few areas of flash flooding from 1-2 inches of rain in an hour
or less will be possible from portions of southeastern NM into the
Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of TX through 00Z.