AWUS01 KWNH 240942
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS...Northwest MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240940Z - 241500Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected going through the mid-morning hours. Given the high
rainfall rates along with cell-training concerns and the
increasingly moist/wet antecedent conditions, the threat of flash
flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows a broken axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of central KS through
northwest MO and into southern IA. Some of the coldest convective
tops and heavier rainfall rates are along areas of the MO/IA
border where MRMS data is showing rates upwards of 1.5 inches/hour.

This activity is embedded within a moist and unstable airmass
early this morning characterized by PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches, and
with MUCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg. There continues to be a
frontal zone draped in a southwest to northeast fashion across the
area with multiple weak waves of low pressure riding northeast
along it. Some weak vort energy is also noted in satellite
imagery, with one vort over central KS and another one over
southwest IA which are both contributing to some modest ascent
over the region and thus facilitating convective sustenance.

The 00Z REFS data suggests the ongoing activity may persist for a
while this morning, with a setup that will locally favor
repeating/training areas of convection. These areas of heavy
showers and thunderstorms will be capable of yielding an
additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain, with the heaviest amounts over
northwest MO and southern IA.

Given the rainfall that has occurred overnight, the antecedent
conditions across the area are locally quite moist/wet, and thus
with the additional rains this morning, the threat for areas of
flash flooding will continue.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41649345 41569229 40769218 39219503 38299721
38539798 39109751 40059611 41119482

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