• Severe Threat IN/KY/OH

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to ALL on Wed Jun 18 15:26:00 2025
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

    ACUS11 KWNS 182009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182008
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-182145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1351
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

    Areas affected...southern IN...far northern KY/southwest OH

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 434...435...

    Valid 182008Z - 182145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 434, 435 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind and a couple tornadoes remain possible with
    the southern portion of a QLCS and broken convection to its south.
    Downstream watch issuance will be likely east of WWs 434/435 by
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...The slower-moving but yet progressive southern-portion
    of the QLCS will likely spread across southern IN into early
    evening. More broken, semi-discrete convection persists to its south
    and these cells may help refine its southern edge along the IN/KY
    border. The IND VWP indicates still adequate low-level SRH for a
    supercell tornado. Most cells have struggled to more deeply
    intensify despite the ample buoyancy, likely due to development
    ahead of the weak surface front amid marginal mid-level lapse rates
    and the MCV tracking towards northern IN. Sporadic severe wind gusts
    should remain the primary hazard.

    ..Grams.. 06/18/2025

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 39758417 38938475 37998593 37848651 37948750 38268774
    39098697 39838677 40198649 40288570 40218442 39758417

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

    $$
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