Mesoscale Discussion 1351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Areas affected...southern IN...far northern KY/southwest OH
Concerning...Tornado Watch 434...435...
Valid 182008Z - 182145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 434, 435 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind and a couple tornadoes remain possible with
the southern portion of a QLCS and broken convection to its south.
Downstream watch issuance will be likely east of WWs 434/435 by
early evening.
DISCUSSION...The slower-moving but yet progressive southern-portion
of the QLCS will likely spread across southern IN into early
evening. More broken, semi-discrete convection persists to its south
and these cells may help refine its southern edge along the IN/KY
border. The IND VWP indicates still adequate low-level SRH for a
supercell tornado. Most cells have struggled to more deeply
intensify despite the ample buoyancy, likely due to development
ahead of the weak surface front amid marginal mid-level lapse rates
and the MCV tracking towards northern IN. Sporadic severe wind gusts
should remain the primary hazard.