MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 081827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081827
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 081827Z - 082030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
wind, and tornadoes likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows increasing cu along a
stationary front located across northern OK into southwestern KS.
MLCIN remains in place across much of the OK/TX panhandles, however,
with temperatures warming into the mid 80s this is beginning to
weaken particularly on the northern and western fringes. Even with
morning elevated convection, a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE is
setting up along the panhandles to the Red River on the OK/TX border.

Initial mode will likely be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large (some 3-4"+) hail, damaging wind (some 70+ mph), and a
couple of tornadoes. VAD profiles from LUB and AMA depict low level
curvature of hodographs indicative of favorable low level shear to
support a tornado threat. Though cells may have the propensity to
cluster, strong deep layer shear and mesoscale storm interactions
will likely allow for some embedded tornado threat to persist even
with a shift in storm mode. A watch will be needed to cover this
threat in the coming hours.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34940274 35680294 36300304 37030286 37090228 37120169
37020135 36880095 36700062 36430010 35919989 35159985
34929985 33770026 33220048 33100146 33090183 33250235
33460256 33780258 34940274

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

$$
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MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 181940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181939
OKZ000-TXZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southern Oklahoma into the eastern
South Plains of Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181939Z - 182145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail (isolated hail greater than 2 inches) and
severe wind gusts will be possible with storms developing on an
outflow boundary. The tornado threat is low, but nonzero,
conditional upon favorable storm interactions with the boundary. A
watch is possible for parts of Northwest Texas into southern
Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and visible satellite over the
past several hours have indicated that an outflow boundary from
morning convection has slowly shifted north into southern Oklahoma
this afternoon. A weak surface low is also evident in far southwest
Oklahoma, very near the Red River. Given the amount of
destabilization that has occurred and the stronger convergence near
the surface low, it seems likely that a few storms will eventually
develop later this afternoon. With the upper-level trough moving
eastward, only modestly enhanced mid-level winds will remain. As
such, effective shear (30-35 kts) will only be marginally supportive
of supercells. However, steep mid-level lapse rates (7.8 C/km on the
18Z observed OUN sounding) and large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
will support a threat for large/very-large hail and severe wind
gusts. Coverage of hail greater than 2 inches may only be isolated
given weak anvil-level flow. The tornado threat appears low on
account of weak low-level winds, but a storm interacting with the
outflow boundary would be capable of tornado in that mesoscale
environment.

..Wendt.. 06/18/2025

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34059559 33819742 33799838 33719948 33680006 33700013
34030058 34530019 35099916 35329773 35369657 35349615
35249583 35099574 34939567 34389557 34169561 34059559

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


$$
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