SUMMARY...Progressive MCS with broad warm advective thunderstorms
downstream should support opportunities for multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall with rates up to 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" resulting
in possible incidents of flash flooding.
DISCUSSION...Mature MCS continues to race east-southeastward
across the Flint Hills of south-central KS with very strong
dynamics aloft to help maintain it as it progresses into the Ozark
Plateau. Very strong divergence aloft within the right entrance
to dual jet structure aloft along with latent heat release will
continue support strong mid-level cyclogenesis. In response, VWP
networks shows broad strengthening of the LLJ with solid veering
through 700mb and winds of southwesterly components to over 30kts
through depth continuing to advect very unstable (2500-3000 J/kg
of MUCAPE) while also pooling deep layer moisture along the
southeast quadrant of the MCV to 2-2.1".
Given the cyclonic/isallobaric component, winds are also very
convergent to support high moisture flux along and downstream of
the MCV track. Currently, warm advective cells have developed well
into north-central AR with rates of 1.5"/hr well in advance of the
cells near the center with rates likely to be over 2"/hr. While
cells along the effective warm front are moving more
east-northeast relatively and are not ideally training with
occasional breaks in intense rainfall rates; there will be
multiple periods of heavy rainfall before capping it off with the
cells near the effective triple point, followed by an hour or so
of moderate broad shield precipitation. This will allow for a
broad area of 2-3" totals across the 4 state corners into
north-central AR toward 12z. Isolated spots on the line with
greatest duration/intensity will likely see 3-4"+ totals and
likely will drive incidents of flash flooding through daybreak.
While the hydrology gets better further east toward the MS River
Valley, the MCS is likely to maintain with similar rates/totals
though incidents of flash flooding are more likely to be more
scattered in nature relative to upstream in the Ozark Plateau