SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving out of northern Missouri will pose a
severe hail risk for parts of southern Iowa and northeast Missouri
over the next few hours. Watch issuance is expected.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues to rapidly develop
northward across northern Missouri and is spreading into
south-central Iowa within a zone of strong warm air advection
between 925-850 mb. Despite being elevated in nature, MUCAPE and
effective shear downstream across IA and northeast MO remains very
favorable for organized convection (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55
knots respectively). Storm mode will likely remain a mix of
supercells and clusters, but intense updrafts will be capable of
producing severe hail, most likely between 1 to 2 inches diameter. A
severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon to address this threat.