Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0275
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
737 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas through Central Kentucky
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 161134Z - 161630Z
Summary...Repeating heavy thunderstorms continue developing from
northeast Arkansas through central Kentucky this morning. While
movement of cells remains progressive, cell mergers and repeating
activity makes flash flooding possible.
Discussion...Numerous supercells have developed ahead of a
stationary front over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel
and western Kentucky. Gulf-sourced moisture (PW of 1.8") is
pooling along the front with higher instability (MUCAPE >2000
J/kg) and powerful deep layer WSWly flow (60kt) allowing for heavy
repeating cells. Rainfall up around 1.5" in the past hour as been
estimated from the heaviest cells which have large hail. The 09Z
RRFS is decent with its current depiction with a diurnal increase
in coverage through the rest of the morning. Flow parallel to the
front will allow repeating storms.
Flash flood guidance is 1.5 to 2" per hour, so flash flooding
should be limited to where repeating heavy activity occurs.