ACUS02 KWNS 140556
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
upper Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes region
Thursday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks Plateau,
and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough currently over the Intermountain
West/northern Rockies is forecast to eject into the upper MS River
Valley over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, a Pacific cold front
will rapidly push east into the MS Valley and Midwest as an intense
surface cyclone begins to occlude over the eastern Dakotas/western
MN. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
by early-afternoon with increasing coverage across the upper MS
Valley through early evening. Increasingly sparse, but severe,
thunderstorms are anticipated along the front across the Midwest
into the lower OH Valley and Ozarks/Texarkana regions through the
evening and overnight hours.

...Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes...
04 UTC surface observations show upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints
already spreading northwest into the upper MS Valley as a surface
low begins to organized across the northern Plains. Confidence
remains high that dewpoints in the mid 60s should overspread much of
the region by mid-day Thursday and will contribute to regional
MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong forcing for ascent
along the approaching front and within the left-exit region of a
50-60 knot mid-level jet will erode capping at the base of a stout
EML and promote thunderstorm development by early afternoon across
parts of central to southern MN. Elongated hodographs with
cross-boundary mean winds will promote organized, initially discrete/semi-discrete cells with an attendant severe wind and hail (potentially as large as 2 inches) threat. Veering winds through the
lowest 2 km will also support a tornado threat with early convection.

With time, persistent strong forcing along the front should promote
some degree of upscale growth/clustering, though supercells will
remain likely on the southern fringe of the line where capping will
remain stronger and favor more isolated convection. The potential
for somewhat longer-lived supercells may be maximized across
southeast WI into adjacent portions of IL, northern IN, and
southwest lower MI. Forecast soundings depict ESRH values on the
order of 200-300 m2/s2, suggesting a significant tornado threat
could materialize. Confidence in the coverage of such cells remains
limited, but trends will be monitored for the need for increased
tornado risk probabilities.

...Midwest and Ohio Valley...
Forecast guidance continues to show the best moisture return across
parts of IL, IN, and northern KY by Thursday afternoon. Dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low 70s under nearly 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
will support a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values approaching
4000 J/kg. Despite the very favorable buoyancy, capping at the base
of the EML is expected to limit storm coverage across this region.
Recent guidance has trended towards perhaps a slightly increased
coverage of thunderstorms compared to previous runs, but the overall
consensus among deterministic and CAM ensemble guidance is that
storm coverage should be sparse. Nonetheless, effective bulk shear
values on the order of 40-50 knots will promote supercells during
the late afternoon/evening hours with all hazards possible,
including the potential for significant hail/tornadoes.
Consideration was given for an expansion of the Enhanced risk area,
but limited confidence in convective coverage precluded such expansion.

...Texarkana to the Ozark Plateau...
Weaker forcing along the front and strong capping will likely limit thunderstorm coverage from the Texarkana region into the Ozark
Plateau during the afternoon/evening. Heading into the overnight
hours, increasing low-level isentropic ascent over the frontal
boundary will support thunderstorm development - especially across
the Ozarks into the mid-MS Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will
promote initial supercells, but storm propagation along the front
will likely promote clustering with time. Nonetheless, a severe
hail/wind threat will likely materialize within this corridor.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A moist, weakly capped air mass is expected to remain in place
across the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday afternoon. While lapse
rates will be modest after several days of convective overturning,
temperatures warming into the upper 70s/low 80s will promote
sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm development. Upper ridging
moving into the region will likely limit thunderstorm coverage, but
convection developing along the Blue Ridge Mountains will mature in
an environment with increasing deep-layer shear. A few organized
cells appear possible with an attendant severe hail/wind threat.

..Moore.. 05/14/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 170603
SWODY2
SPC AC 170602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the
Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop
along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface
low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and
will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will
extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains.

...Kansas and northern Oklahoma...
A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday
with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and
southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm,
strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the
mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale
ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease
inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows
limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during
the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas.
Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and
southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma.

Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for
very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening
as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in
storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains
unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward
progression of the surface warm front which will significantly
impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would
likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more
widespread storm development would likely favor development into a
MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern
Kansas and into Missouri.

Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems
appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10%
tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the
Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal
position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the
warm front.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas
for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along
the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence
farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing.
However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which
could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet
intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and
North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for
intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes.

...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity...
By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward
around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado,
and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast
ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the
afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary
limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable
STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the
boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for
large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops
off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable
low-level shear across the region.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone
that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast.
Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately
sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with
neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast
soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated
development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize
from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday
convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal
zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused
region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across
AL/GA.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 180602
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will shift from the Intermountain West into the
central Plains on Monday. A moderate to strong mid-level jet streak
will emerge along the southern periphery of this trough from the
Southwest into the central/southern Plains. A surface low in
Nebraska will gradually consolidate southward and deepen as the
mid-level jet emerges across the southern Plains. A sharp dryline
will be present from central Kansas to central Oklahoma and
north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from near Omaha to the
lower Ohio Valley and remain mostly stationary during the day.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the warm front in the
northern Missouri border vicinity on Monday morning. Otherwise, a
mostly convection-free warm sector is expected to the south. Very
strong instability will develop along and east of the dryline with
convective temperatures likely reached by early afternoon. As large
scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough overspreads the
dryline, expect scattered supercells to develop along the dryline in
Kansas and Oklahoma. Very large to potentially giant hail will be
possible with these supercells initially. In addition, hodographs
will support tornadoes. The tornado threat will increase through the
afternoon and peak during the evening as the low-level jet
strengthens and low-level shear increases. However, by this time,
storm mode could be messy which is one factor precluding higher
probabilities at this time.

00Z CAM guidance shows a range of solutions including:

1. Earlier storms as the primary threat.

2. Delayed dryline initiation with a potential tornado outbreak type
solution across central/eastern Kansas and central/eastern Oklahoma.

3. A combination of both solutions.

The uncertainty in guidance at this time precludes a moderate risk,
but higher probabilities may be needed when a more favored solution
becomes more clear, especially if one of the higher-end scenarios
appears likely.

..Bentley.. 05/18/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 190557
SWODY2
SPC AC 190556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance east to the TN/OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, a surface low will move from
northern MO/southern Iowa to the eastern Great Lakes by 12Z
Wednesday. A cold front will extend south from this surface low and
move east from the central/southern Plains at the beginning of the
period to the eastern Great Lakes to Louisiana Coast by 12Z Wednesday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Remnant Day 1 convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with the potential
for some ongoing strong to severe storms. One or more outflow
boundaries will likely be located across the Ohio River region at
the beginning of the period. 00Z guidance has come into better
agreement that a mid-level dry slot associated with the mid-level
jet streak will move quickly across the warm sector during the
morning. This will allow heating and recovery across most of the
warm sector, particularly south of the Ohio River. This was the
primary factor which supported expansion of the Enhanced Risk into
southern Kentucky.

Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop
across the warm sector by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon as
inhibition will be quickly eroded and upper-level forcing should
overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. A 60 to 70 knot
mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector and provide a very
favorable supercell wind profile across most of the region. Initial
supercells will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards
including the potential or strong tornadoes. The uncapped warm
sector and strong forcing suggest that eventual upscale growth is
likely into several squall lines/clusters. Severe wind and
line-embedded tornadoes (particularly where the line orientation
becomes more favorable to the low-level shear vector) will become
more likely by the evening as this more linear mode evolves.

...Carolinas into southern Virginia...
A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during
the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to
spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering,
supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few
strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as
modest height falls overspread the region.

..Bentley.. 05/19/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN
TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern
Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning
Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the
eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States
by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the
wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will
become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9
C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front
from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon.

With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal
intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as
the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the
eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance
continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along
and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles
from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the
strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable
of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows,
further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west
TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that
should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS.
This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures
capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes.
The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the
development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail
potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in
spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley.

...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley...
A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that
will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by
late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely
weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A
strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to
southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast
will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal
into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant
severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a
brief tornado.

...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic
Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as
southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate
buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple
embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms
developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the
coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak
updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds
and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also
possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential
heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a
central Appalachians MCV.

..Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 160602
SWODY2
SPC AC 160600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few
tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally
severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central
U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on
Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates
eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen
across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from
central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south
of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will
contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon.
Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front
will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and
to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during
the late afternoon and early evening.

NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday
across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some
areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with
0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development.
The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is
forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable
low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few
tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells.
Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of
producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to
late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across
central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central High Plains...
A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will
heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is
expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the
lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate
instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution,
which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this
convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday
afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have
0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8
to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the
more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central
Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the
Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the
lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of
region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to
develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward
into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon.
Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be
sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 06/16/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 170615
SWODY2
SPC AC 170613

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OH...INDIANA...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS/MISSOURI...AND EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected on Wednesday from parts of
southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan.
Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Extensive antecedent convection results in some uncertainty
regarding synoptic details on Wednesday. In general, a convectively
enhanced mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across parts of
the mid/upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. In conjunction with
this trough, a deepening surface low will move from parts of
IA/northern MO toward lower MI by Wednesday night.

To the east, one or more weak midlevel shortwave troughs may move
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, along the northwest
periphery of an upper-level ridge off of the Carolina coast.

...MI southwestward into the mid MS and OH Valleys...
Convection associated with a remnant MCS may be ongoing Wednesday
morning from parts of IA/northern MO into the Ozarks. Outflow and
lingering cloud cover from this remnant MCS, and the intensity of
possible MCV-like enhancement to the primary shortwave trough, will
influence severe potential from parts of the mid MS Valley and OH
Valley into northern IL/IN and lower MI.

To the south/east of any remnant outflow, and along/south of a warm
front that will move northward in conjunction with the deepening
surface low, diurnal heating of a richly moist environment (with
dewpoints in the 70s F) will result in moderate to strong buoyancy,
with MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg near the warm front, to
greater than 2500 J/kg across the warm sector. Renewed storm
development will be possible during the afternoon near the warm
front and across the weakly capped warm sector. Midlevel flow is
generally forecast to increase to 40-50 kt across the warm sector,
providing sufficient effective shear for supercells and organized clusters.

Potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards (including a
tornado threat) may become maximized in closer proximity to the
surface low and warm front across parts of IL/IN and lower MI, where
backed surface winds will support favorable low-level shear/SRH. A
corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually need to be
considered, depending on trends regarding the intensity and track of
the surface low.

Farther southwest along the outflow-reinforced cold front, somewhat
weaker upper-level flow may result in more of a tendency for storm
clustering, but effective shear will still be sufficient for
organized convection, and storms will be capable of producing
scattered damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a couple tornadoes.

Some severe threat could persist well into the evening and even into
late Wednesday night as storms spread eastward, especially if the
stronger model solutions regarding the strength of the midlevel
shortwave trough and surface low end up closer to reality.

...Southern Plains...
Large-scale ascent will generally become more nebulous with
southwestward extent into the southern Plains, though at least
isolated storm development will be possible near the cold front
during the late afternoon and evening. While coverage is uncertain,
strong to extreme buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear
will support a threat of severe hail and wind with any storms that
develop and persist within this regime.

...Mid Atlantic vicinity...
Rather strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate
to strong buoyancy Wednesday afternoon from parts of the Carolinas
into the Mid Atlantic. Scattered diurnal storm development will be
possible along/east of the Blue Ridge, and potentially farther north
and east into parts of DE/NJ and eastern PA. Guidance generally
depicts a belt of 35-45 kt midlevel flow across the region, to the
northwest of the upper-level ridge off of the Carolina coast. This
modest flow enhancement could result in some storm organization,
with large PW and steepened low-level lapse rates resulting in a
threat for at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some small
to marginally severe hail.

...Parts of far northeast MT into ND and northwest MN...
Despite generally limited low-level moisture, relatively steep lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft may support a pocket of moderate destabilization across parts of far northeast MT and ND into
northern MN Wednesday afternoon. Wind profiles will be relatively
weak and unidirectional, but a couple stronger cells or clusters
will be possible during the afternoon and evening, with localized
potential for hail and strong to severe gusts.

..Dean.. 06/17/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 171704
SWODY2
SPC AC 171703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...INDIANA...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS/MISSOURI...AND EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected on Wednesday from parts of
southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan.
Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse from MO/IA to the Southern Great
Lakes on Wednesday. A surface low will accompany this mid-level
trough and move from eastern Iowa to Michigan. A cold front will
extend from this surface low to the southern Great Plains. Severe
thunderstorms are expected along much of this frontal zone on Wednesday.

...Midwest into the Southern Great Lakes...
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front
across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday morning. Some cloudcover
is likely across the region, but only minimal heating (mid 70s)
appears necessary for convective initiation. Therefore, expect
relatively early storm development along and ahead of a cold front
north of I-70 during the late morning to mid-day timeframe. Moderate instability and modest shear (35 to 40 knots) will promote storm
organization. Very weak (~5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates amid a
moist profile, should mostly limit hail production. Therefore,
damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary threat. However, some
tornado threat will also exist as forecast soundings show strong
low-level curvature and significant streamwise vorticity in the
lowest 1km. There is some uncertainty with storm mode, but a tornado
threat would exist with either a broken line or a QLCS as it moves
across northern Indiana into southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.

...Ozarks into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
There is uncertainty across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
regarding the strength of morning convection across the region. It
is unclear whether this morning convection will reintensify and move east/northeast with a renewed threat, or if additional development
will occur during the afternoon and be the primary threat. However,
given the lack of strong low-level jet support, expect the overnight
MCS to be weakening by morning with the additional afternoon
development solution preferred. Moderate to potentially strong
instability is forecast by mid-afternoon with modest (25-30 knots)
of shear. This will support mostly multicell clusters with a threat
for damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Plains...
Strong heating is forecast south of the boundary across the southern
Plains. This will result in moderate to potentially strong
instability amid 25-30 knots of shear. Very warm 700mb temperatures
(12C) will likely limit overall convective coverage. However,
forecast soundings show a mostly uncapped environment where a
surface boundary should be present. Therefore, at least isolated
storms are possible. Modest shear and very steep lapse rates will
support some hail/wind threat from any storms which can develop
within this region.

...Northern Plains...
Despite generally limited low-level moisture, relatively steep lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft may support a pocket of moderate destabilization across parts of far northeast MT and ND into
northern MN Wednesday afternoon. Wind profiles will be relatively
weak and unidirectional, but a couple stronger cells or clusters
will be possible during the afternoon and evening, with localized
potential for hail and strong to severe gusts.

...Mid Atlantic...
Strong heating, combined with low 70s dewpoints will result in
moderate to strong instability in the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. 12Z
guidance has trended weaker with a belt of mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon/evening. However, sufficient
mid-level flow is still forecast for modest shear and some multicell
clusters. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these
scattered storms.

..Bentley.. 06/17/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)