ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the
Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas.

...20z update...
Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential
continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial
diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few
clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid
Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in
combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds
as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient
supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the
evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be
possible with any stronger rotating storms.

...AL and western GA...
Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the
Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon
into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid
to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical
jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of
line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally
greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind
probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective
organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing
and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see
the previous discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 05/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present
along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from
parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop
this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with
additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated
with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will
gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few
hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher
terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will
support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered
damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters
that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but
some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater
confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where
the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The
tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some
modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in
occasional low-level updraft rotation.

...Southeast...
12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that
convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning
hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread
cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning
should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon
along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front,
which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of
renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still,
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to
gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper
trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward.
This should support some threat for organized convection, and
isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form.
With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability
developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include
greater severe wind probabilities at this time.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of
the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves
eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited,
increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid
in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated
threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a
very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the
strongest cores.

...Far West Texas...
Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across
far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still
appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow
regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain
modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper
levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some
updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a
supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced
a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041252
SWODY1
SPC AC 041250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central
and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and
evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts,
and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are
possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau.

...New Mexico/West Texas...
In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts,
increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will
overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to
near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into
east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with
height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the
probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized
severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level
hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support
a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late
afternoon into the evening.

...Florida...
A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a
lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a
localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing
cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but
gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the
east coast, which will also probably influence storm development.
Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized
storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado
threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or
any other boundaries.

...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas...
East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold
temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization
across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania.
Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude
vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst
diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather
weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow
could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be
realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest
storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk
caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater
destabilization appears likely.

Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic
region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE
may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is
more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to
modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms
that can mature within this environment could become modestly
organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana...
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening
across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates.
Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger
storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent
outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of
low-end severe probabilities.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 112000
SWODY1
SPC AC 111959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern
Rockies/Great Basin and the Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon
into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
across the Southeast today through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The only noteworthy change with this update was a southwestward
expansion of the Slight Risk area into northern UT, driven by
15-percent severe wind probabilities. Here, ample diurnal heating
has resulted in a deep/dry boundary layer supportive of scattered
severe wind gusts accompanying high-based storms. Reference Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #245 for more details. Farther east, isolated
severe storms capable of producing locally damaging winds and
marginally severe hail remain possible across the Southeast into
this evening. Reference MCDs #766/767 for details.

..Weinman.. 05/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/

...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin...
Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the
day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses
eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA
into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the
airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave
trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms
across the high terrain during the afternoon within this
destabilized airmass.

Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with
this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as
the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential
exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an
increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into
central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as
storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures.

...Southeast States...
Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show
the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad
swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low
from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become
increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two
days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation,
but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary
boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to
the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across
southern GA.

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is
for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of
the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit
heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest
buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some
transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected
to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated
damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential
exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across
southern GA around 00Z.

Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is
forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath
cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft,
overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to
mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional
southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear
could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells
may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts,
and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late
afternoon through early/mid-evening.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221239
SWODY1
SPC AC 221237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the southern Plains this
afternoon and evening. Large hail is the main threat, along with
severe gusts. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible.

...Southern Plains...
Weak short-wave ridging will shift into the central High Plains
later today and mid-level heights are forecast to rise from the
southern Rockies into the northern Plains. As this occurs, a
synoptic front draped across OK will sag south and sharpen over the
TX South Plains/southern OK by mid-late afternoon. Strong heating
south of the boundary will contribute to a moderately to very
unstable airmass. Scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve and
mature within this steep lapse-rate environment with 0-6km bulk
shear around 40kt. Wind profiles favor supercells and hodographs
suggest very large hail is likely with the most robust updrafts.
Severe gusts are possible with the stronger downdrafts and upscale
growth into a couple of thunderstorm clusters is forecast during the
evening as this activity moves into northwest/north-central TX
during the evening hours.

...Southern/Eastern Florida...
Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a
large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough. Deep westerly flow favors an
east coast sea breeze, and this should be where convection focuses
as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and lower 90s. Localized
severe gusts and large hail are the primary threats with this
diurnally driven convection.

...Central High Plains...
The aforementioned mid-level ridge and an eastward-migrating
mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will favor southeasterly
low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains. Modest
moisture coupled with strong heating will yield 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE
by mid afternoon east of the Front Range. Recent model runs of the
HRRR show a dearth of storm coverage, but the 00z HREF implies at
least isolated storms. Elongated straight-line hodographs will
support east-southeastward moving storms within an environment
featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km). A couple of
stronger storms may result in an isolated risk for large hail/severe
gusts.

..Smith/Marsh.. 05/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271204
SWODY1
SPC AC 271202

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across
parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large
hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of
Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the
Southeast.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its
structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS,
with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass
downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at
the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the
development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early
afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts
along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it
tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave
trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the
north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the
threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by
this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the
boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance
for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing
activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and
damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form.

...Southern Plains...
An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf
Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its
wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX
and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed
this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for
hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this
afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves
from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern
High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain
in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm
development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong
instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep
mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from
higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is
expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual
strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still
foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells
posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be
the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or
more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears
possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection
spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly
deep south TX.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central
states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over
the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon
before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While
instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level
lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear
to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail
and severe wind gusts with this activity.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281242
SWODY1
SPC AC 281240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes should occur today across
parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur
across portions of the Gulf Coast/Southeast.

...Eastern Colorado into Kansas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and
Western Oklahoma...

A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across
the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the
southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a
narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across
eastern CO into southwest KS and the OK/northern TX Panhandles by
mid afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should initiate across eastern CO/southwest NE and vicinity by 18-21Z as large-scale ascent
attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the developing warm
sector. Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to
west-northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height through mid
levels. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support mainly
supercell structures, with an initial threat for large to isolated
very large hail. With time, a bowing complex should evolve from
parts of western/southern KS into northwest OK and the OK/TX
Panhandles, with a greater threat for scattered severe winds
apparent this evening. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow
zone across southwest KS and vicinity where low-level shear should
be maximized along a warm front late this afternoon/early evening,
especially if a semi-discrete mode can be maintained.

...Western North Texas into North/Central Texas...

A remnant MCV over west TX will drift slowly eastward today towards north/central TX. While convection occurred yesterday and is still
ongoing this morning across parts of this region, it appears likely
that at least some destabilization will occur through this afternoon
along/near a remnant surface front draped generally west to east
over central TX. Most high-resolution guidance shows scattered
thunderstorms developing by 18-20Z in close proximity to the MCV.
Modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies associated with this
feature should support enough deep-layer shear for updraft
organization and some supercell/large hail potential initially. With
time, a small bowing cluster may develop and pose more of a severe
wind threat through the late afternoon and evening as convection
spreads generally east-southeastward into central TX before
eventually weakening. A tornado or two may also occur, as low-level
shear will be modestly enhanced the by MCV. Based on recent guidance
trends, the Slight Risk has been expanded southeastward to include
more of central TX.

...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind
large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west
TX, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak
afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains and vicinity. Hail/wind may occur with any of the stronger
cores that can be sustained. Have maintained the Slight Risk for
hail over parts of this area. But, confidence in overall severe
thunderstorm coverage is low, as low-level upslope flow is forecast
to be weaker compared to yesterday.

...Deep South Texas...

With an unstable airmass remaining in place across deep south TX, a
small cluster of thunderstorms near the lower TX Coast may continue
to pose a severe/damaging wind threat for another hour or two this
morning before moving offshore.

...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast...

A broad and rather unfocused zone of marginal/isolated severe
potential remains apparent downstream of ongoing convection this
morning across the middle TX Coast and central TX vicinity. A
weak/convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward from central/east TX across parts of the lower MS
Valley through the afternoon and evening. As modest large-scale
ascent associated with this feature overspreads a gradually
destabilizing warm sector, a band of convection may develop across
LA/MS with some risk for hail and damaging winds. Severe potential
across the remainder of the Southeast along/near a stalled front is
even less clear owing to weak large-scale forcing. Still, a
conditional threat for strong/gusty winds may exist with any
convection that can form through peak afternoon heating as low-level
lapse rates slowly steepen.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/28/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311252
SWODY1
SPC AC 311251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible this afternoon
into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the Red River.

...Central/southern Plains...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains will
move south/southeast across the central and southern Plains through
tonight, as an associated cold front drops south through KS and OK.
Modest low-level moisture transport, combined with
evapotranspiration, will result in low 60s dew points and moderate
MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) in advance of the front. Favorable
deep-layer shear and long hodographs will support supercells capable
of large hail and localized severe gusts with initial development.
Low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but a tornado
cannot be ruled out with any stronger/sustained supercell. Storms
may tend to evolve into a cluster/compact MCS with time, and
possibly move into parts of north TX later tonight.

...Eastern KY/TN into the Mid Atlantic...
An expansive mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much
of the eastern CONUS today. A mid/upper-level speed maximum will
move through the base of the trough across NC/VA during the
afternoon and early evening. Despite limited low-level moisture,
cold temperatures aloft will support generally weak but sufficient
buoyancy for widely scattered storm development with a
southeast-moving cold front. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will
be possible with the strongest storms. Any clustering of storms
could result in more concentrated areas of wind-damage potential.
Some potential exists for greater concentration of strong/severe
storms from eastern VA across the DelMarVa peninsula and into
southern NJ this afternoon as the cold front encounters somewhat
greater instability. Higher severe probabilities may be warranted
with the next outlook update if confidence in this scenario increases.

...Central/south FL...
Ongoing morning storms, occasionally strong to marginally severe,
continue across the central FL peninsula at 13z. These storms will
continue moving south today, where deep-layer shear will remain
sufficient to support modest storm organization and some continued
potential for gusty/damaging winds and perhaps small hail. Most
guidance continues to suggest redevelopment of thunderstorms across
the peninsula later tonight, with sufficient deep-layer shear
remaining in place for a few stronger storms.

...CO/NM...
Isolated stronger storms may develop from south-central/southeast CO
into northeast NM, within a modestly moist and unstable environment.
While confidence in more than a very isolated severe threat remains
low with this outlook, severe probabilities may need to be
considered if trends support greater coverage of severe potential
into the late afternoon and evening.

..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/31/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 312000
SWODY1
SPC AC 311958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts remain possible late this
afternoon into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma
to the Red River. Isolated strong to severe storms may still occur
this afternoon over parts of the Mid-Atlantic coastal region.

...20Z Update...
The main changes made to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook were
to remove Slight Risk probabilities across the Mid Atlantic, and
remove Marginal Risk probabilities across the southern FL Peninsula.
Over the Mid-Atlantic, a loosely organized MCS has moved offshore,
leaving an overturned airmass in its wake. Though thunderstorms
remain possible in this area, buoyancy should be diluted enough to
reduce the severe threat to some degree. Similarly, the passage of
strong thunderstorms, along with residual cloud cover, will also
limit additional thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula,
though a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 05/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025/

...KS/OK...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
digging southward across the Dakotas. This feature will approach KS
by late afternoon, and track into the southern Plains overnight.
Strong heating and steep lapse rates ahead of the trough, combined
with increasing large scale ascent, will result in scattered
thunderstorms over eastern NE/northern KS with a risk of hail and
gusty winds. As this activity moves southward into a progressively
more moist/unstable air mass, thunderstorm intensification is
expected - mainly after dark. Storms will continue southward across
southern KS into OK, with a few supercells expected capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Storms may persist into the overnight
hours across southern OK/north TX.

...DelMarVa...
A broad upper trough is present today over the northeast states,
with a compact shortwave trough over southwest PA approaching the
DelMarVa region. This system will promote afternoon convective
development from southeast PA into eastern VA, with storms spreading
across eastern MD/DE/southern NJ before tracking offshore. Cool
temperatures aloft and sufficient westerly mid-level winds suggest
the potential for thunderstorm organization and a few severe storms
capable of damaging winds and hail. Refer to MCD #1054 for further
details.

...South FL...
A sagging cold front will continue to result in a few strong
thunderstorms across south FL this afternoon, capable of locally
gusty winds. Refer to MCD #1053 for further details.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 011252
SWODY1
SPC AC 011251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later
today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee
River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains,
northern Rockies, and south Florida.

...Central and eastern TX...
Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have
moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far
remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are
for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger
storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters
moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly
deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for
organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to
very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting
with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in
the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear.

...TN to the Carolinas...
A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO
southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest
low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold
temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will
allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the
front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this
afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward
extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may
support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging
wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more
concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests
this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association
with a weak surface low moving east along the front.

...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the
Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak
to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will
support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an
attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the
extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of
somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area.

...South FL...
Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level
confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally
exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for
modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms
spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early
afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening
mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some
storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and
hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early
afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to
Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term
thinking in this area.

...Eastern CO/NM...
Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long
and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer
flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some
increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial
storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe
gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized
clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to
locally severe outflow winds.

...Southern CA into southern/central AZ...
A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of
southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread
the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation
will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will
be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time.

...Great Basin...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from
parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to
remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however
localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime
through early evening.

..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 020530
SWODY1
SPC AC 020528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains
into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...High Plains to southwestern MN...

Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over
southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This
feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt
500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter
half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this
region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold
front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley.

Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be
noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates
forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of
northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front
by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the
wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially
early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential
clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind.

Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low
is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula.
This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains
by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will
prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much
of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately
sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk
appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as
convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by
southern-stream short wave.

...South Florida...

Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS
Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late
afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the
southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across
southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount
of convection across this region as large-scale support increases
ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms,
beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may
be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a
local wind/hail threat with this activity.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031237
SWODY1
SPC AC 031236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
eastern CO/northeastern NM, embedded within larger upper troughing
that extends over much of the western and central CONUS. An
extensive area of showers and thunderstorms (i.e. from the TX Hill
Country into IA and MN) is ongoing ahead of this shortwave trough
and its associated cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will
likely continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, which
could limit diurnal heating along the frontal zone, particularly
from the IL/IA border vicinity northward. This limited heating will
temper the overall buoyancy in those areas, keeping the severe risk
isolated despite the presence of stronger deep-layer shear than
areas farther south.

Moderate diurnal heating appears likely ahead of the cold front
from the IA/MO/IL border intersection vicinity southwestward across
MO and into eastern OK and KS. However, the amount of precipitation
currently ongoing in this region and upstream does introduce some
doubt to whether or not highs in the mid 80s will be realized. Even
if temperatures stay in the upper 70s/low 80s, abundant low-level
moisture coupled with relatively modest mid-level temperatures
should still result in an uncapped airmass ahead of the front during
the early afternoon. Given the line-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear across this region, expectation is for a
predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments
capable of producing damaging gusts.

The strongest heating ahead of the cold front is anticipated from
western OK south into the TX Hill Country. Here, afternoon
temperatures will likely reach the low 90s amid dewpoints in the
upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). These surface conditions will
help support strong to very strong buoyancy ahead of the front, with
MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg for much of this region by 21Z. Robust
thunderstorms are expected to develop when the front interacts with
this buoyancy, with potential for some pre-frontal development
within areas of low-level confluence as well. An initially more
cellular mode is likely, and vertical shear is forecast to be strong
enough to support supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk
with these storms, but some low tornado potential exists as well,
particularly near a low expected to be over the southwest
OK/northwest TX region during the afternoon. Given the frontal
forcing and widespread coverage, a quick transition to a linear mode
appears likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe
risk. The deep-shear vector here should be more orthogonal to the
line than areas farther north, fostering the potential for a more forward-propagating convective line across central OK and
north-central/central TX from the late afternoon through the
evening. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue
along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 040536
SWODY1
SPC AC 040535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into
the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany
convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas.

...Southern High Plains...

Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are
beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula.
This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z,
then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance
suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across
southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure
reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this
feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into
southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture
being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest
boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but
modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of
eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust
convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher
terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the
short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe
wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this
activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle.

...Elsewhere...

A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend
across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse
rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and
adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that
would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for
damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be
its greatest.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 050549
SWODY1
SPC AC 050547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains
from southwestern Kansas into west Texas. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the
day1 period as broad upper ridging holds across northeast Mexico
into the lower MS Valley. Along the northern periphery of this
feature, a few weak disturbances are forecast to translate across
the southwestern U.S. into the southern/central High Plains region.
Each of these features should encourage potentially robust, deep
convection.

Early this morning, a notable MCS has evolved over the TX Panhandle.
This complex has been partly aided by a low-amplitude short-wave
trough that will translate into eastern KS/OK later today. While
this convection is currently well-organized, with time this activity
should gradually weaken downstream over western OK/northwest TX. Of
potential concern will be the influence on boundary-layer stability
and the position of convective outflow boundaries. If the MCS
continues as currently anticipated, a possible demarcation in
buoyancy may extend across the TX South Plains into far eastern NM
by peak heating. Remnant outflow will likely serve as the focus for
robust convection later this afternoon as temperatures warm into the
mid 80s-lower 90s, west and south of the outflow. Forecast soundings
along this corridor exhibit strong deep-layer shear and substantial
0-3km SRH. Supercells should develop across the southern High Plains
and very large hail may accompany these robust updrafts.
Additionally, profiles appear favorable for tornadoes, especially if
the aforementioned convective outflow maintains some identity.

A secondary area of potential convective concentration will be
across southeast CO into southwest KS. Models suggest strong
boundary-layer heating will develop across northeast NM into the
western OK Panhandle, just south of a secondary weak frontal zone
that should drape itself across this region. Supercells should
easily develop along this boundary then possibly grow upscale into a
larger complex of storms as it spreads downstream along the KS/OK
border after sunset. All hazards are possible with this activity,
but any tornado threat will likely be concentrated with more
isolated supercells early in the convective evolution.

...Elsewhere...

High-PW plume currently stretches across the lower MS Valley-OH
Valley-lower Great Lakes-southeast Canada. Scattered convection will
readily develop along this corridor, juxtaposed along a weak frontal
zone. Poor lapse rates should limit updraft strength, but some risk
for an isolated severe wind gust does exist.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101219
SWODY1
SPC AC 101217

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley,
along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern
California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies.

...Central/East TX This Morning...
Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking
slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has
been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty
winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the
MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV
may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and
central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support
re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast
scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon.
However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk
area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates.

...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening...
The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is
sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level
winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating,
is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late
afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over
the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward
through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Coastal GA/SC...
Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of
daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification
by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts.

...Eastern FL Peninsula...
Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong
instability later this afternoon along the northeast and
east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm
development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep
low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in
the strongest cells.

...NY/New England...
A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon
over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist
and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the
Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of
gusty winds and hail.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121242
SWODY1
SPC AC 121241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible
today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and
wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas
coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of
the northern Mid Atlantic.

...NE/SD...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over eastern
MT, with a mid-level speed max tracking across WY. Large-scale lift
associated with the jet max will overspread parts of NE/SD by late
afternoon along a stalled surface boundary. At least widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for a few hours (mainly
21-03z), with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient deep-layer
shear for a few organized/rotating cells. Locally damaging winds
and hail are possible. Overnight CAM guidance has shown consistency
on the corridor most likely to see storms, so have added a narrow
SLGT to cover this threat.

...East TX/LA/AR...
An upper trough is located over central TX, where widespread
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning. A few of these storms have
shown supercell tendencies overnight. Model guidance and local VAD
data suggest a region of enhanced low/mid level flow to the east of
the upper trough, extending from central into northeast TX. As the
trough moves northeastward today, the combination of a very moist
and modestly unstable air mass, sufficient low/deep layer shear, and considerable coverage of thunderstorms, will contribute to a risk of
a few locally damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes. Will maintain
MRGL risk for today due to widespread clouds and limited opportunity
for heating.

...GA/SC/NC...
Strong heating is expected today across parts of GA/SC/NC, where
temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70F are forecast.
This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the
development scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is
weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach
severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221241
SWODY1
SPC AC 221239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today
across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of
which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
Storms associated with severe gusts and hail may also develop across
parts of the Northeast, and in the southern and central Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are currently moving
northeastward across the eastern Dakotas. A few stronger storms are
embedded within these clusters and overall trends suggest increasing
storm coverage is possible as these storms move into more of eastern
ND and northwest/west-central MN. The airmass here is characterized
by very steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8 to 8.5 deg C per km
from 700 to 500 mb per recent mesoanalysis) and moderate deep-layer
vertical shear. These environmental conditions support the potential
for large hail within any more organized updrafts throughout the
morning. See MCD #1400 for additional details.

The strength and extent of these early day storms could impact
thunderstorm chances later. However, the general expectation
supported by all the guidance is that the airmass should easily
recover as the surface low currently over the western SD/NE border
vicinity shifts northeastward across SD and moderate/strong
southerly surface winds persist through the warm sector. By 21Z, the
surface low will likely be over northeast SD with a cold front
extending north-northeastward to a secondary low over northern MN.
Warm mid-level temperatures will cap the airmass until after 21Z,
when isolated development appears possible across northern MN.
Another scenario is for early afternoon initiation behind the front
across ND, supported by a weak vorticity maximum moving out of
western SD. These storms could then gradually move northeastward
into the more unstable airmass farther east. In either case, any
warm-sector development would likely be supercellular and capable of
all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 2" in diameter,
gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes. The warm front is currently expected
to be just north of the international border, keeping the best
tornado environment in Canada. Upscale growth into a
forward-progressing MCS is possible, but there is currently low
confidence in the overall storm evolution.

Additional development is also possible farther south from
central/eastern NE into eastern SD this evening. This activity
should initially be elevated with hail as the primary risk. A
general northeastward motion is anticipated and there is some chance
for this activity to begin interacting with the frontal zone. If
that occurs, some strong gusts are also possible throughout the
evening.

Lastly, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears probable
across far eastern WY, the NE Panhandle, and southwest SD. High
storm bases coupled with modest buoyancy, deep mixing, and steep
low-level lapse rates will support the potential for strong outflow
with this activity.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture advection and related airmass destabilization
coupled with low-level convergence along the lee trough is expected
to result in widespread convective initiation from eastern
CO/western KS through eastern NM and into far west TX. Vertical
shear will be modest, likely resulting in a predominantly
outflow-dominant storm structure and the potential for damaging wind
gusts. Some isolated hail is possible as well.

...Northeast...
Remnants of an overnight MCS currently cover much of the Northeast,
with the strongest storms confined to just north of the outflow
along its western periphery. Given the extensive precipitation
ongoing, this outflow will likely shift gradually
south-southwestward throughout the morning. Warm-air advection along
this boundary will weaken throughout the day as upper ridging builds
northward into the region. Even so, low-level convergence along this
boundary will likely continue, and there is some chance for
thunderstorms to persist along this boundary as well. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and resulting strong buoyancy will support a
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon/evening in the vicinity of this boundary. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the primary risk with any storms that do develop.

..Mosier/Dean.. 06/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231223
SWODY1
SPC AC 231221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the
Great Lakes.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing
through ND and southern SK/MB. Surface analysis places the low
associated with this shortwave over far northwestern ON, with an
attendant cold front arcing from this low through the MN arrowhead
and back through south-central MN, northwest IA,
eastern/south-central NE to another low in northwest KS. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along this frontal zone from northeast NE
into southern MN.

Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
through far northwest ON throughout the day, with the primary
surface low also tracking northeastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. Gradual eastward/southeastward progress of the cold front
is anticipated, although its forward progression will slow with
time, particularly from the Mid MO Valley southwestward into the
southern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass exists ahead of this
front, with temperatures expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s
amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. These conditions will
result in strong buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition
along much of the front by 21Z.

Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but persist
low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection,
with numerous to widespread thunderstorms anticipated. The stronger
deep-layer vertical shear will lag behind the front across much of
the region, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample moisture
should still result in sporadic damaging gusts. There will be better
overlap between the shear and buoyancy from WI into MI, and there is
some chance for one or more forward-propagating line segments in
this area. Some isolated hail is possible within the more robust
early-stage storms. Storm mergers could also result in updrafts
briefly becoming strong enough to produce hail.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
amid persistent low-level convergence within the warm, moist, and
weakly sheared airmass over the region. The lack of stronger shear
will result in largely outflow-dominant storm structures. Given the
high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, damaging gusts are
possible with the stronger storms.

...Northern ME...
A convectively augmented vorticity maximum currently over
northeastern ON is forecast progress eastward through southern QC
and into the Canadian Maritimes during the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this vorticity max, with a few stronger
storms potentially glancing northern ME this evening. Moderately low
to mid-level westerly flow will support the threat for some damaging
gusts as these storms move through the region.

...Southeast...
Scattered to numerous diurnally driven thunderstorm are expected
across the region today. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular
pulse mode anticipated. Given the ample moisture and likelihood of
storm interactions, a few strong, water-loaded downbursts are
possible. Limited coverage precludes the need for any severe
probabilities.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/23/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241239
SWODY1
SPC AC 241238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be
likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and
northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this
afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into
the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over
much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great
Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK
is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading
to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively
augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the
northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial
shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will
lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge
as well.

Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated
by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between
the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental
airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent
surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary
boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over
WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI
low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the
70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating,
and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest
low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains
through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear
will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing
to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible
with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is
expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed
below).

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the
region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in
the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level
moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by
the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm
expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then
moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will
be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of
producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more
outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or
more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing.
This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado
threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY
into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best
overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds
is expected.

...Southern Rockies...
Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to
widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very
shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular
mode.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251241
SWODY1
SPC AC 251239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST...AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A large upper ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS
this morning, although an upper low centered northeast of the
Bahamas is beginning to impinge on its southeastern periphery.
Early-morning satellite imagery also shows a well-defined shortwave
trough moving through southern CA and southern Great Basin.

Recent surface analysis reveals a large reservoir of low-level
moisture beneath this upper ridge, with low 70s dewpoints over much
of the OH and TN Valleys, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. This
low-level moisture extends across much of the Plains as well, with
mid 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central/southeast SD. A
diffuse, somewhat wavy stationary boundary exists between this moist
airmass and the drier, more continental airmass edging into the
northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes.

This large area of ample low-level moisture will support potential thunderstorms much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Highest
coverage of strong to severe storms is anticipated across the Mid MO
Valley and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic, with more widely scattered
strong to severe storms across the northern and central High Plains
and along the frontal zone across the northern OH Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
In addition to the moist airmass described in the synopsis, a pocket
of seasonally cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -10 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the Bahamas upper low extends into the
region. 12Z MHX and CHS soundings sampled -10 and -12 deg C at 500
mb, and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.9 and 8.4 deg C per km,
respectively. These thermodynamic conditions will result in very
strong buoyancy as the airmass diurnally heats this afternoon.
MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg is anticipated from AL eastward into the
Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is expected once convective
inhibition erodes around 18Z, with the very strong buoyancy
supporting intense updrafts. Vertical shear will be weak, with
erratic storm motions and a multicellular, pulse mode likely. Even
so, steep low-level lapse rates should support strong downdrafts and
numerous instances of damaging gusts are expected. These storms will
likely wane with the loss of daytime heating.

...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley...
Low-level moisture advection across the region today will bring low
70s dewpoints in southern MN by the late afternoon, while also
sharpening a warm frontal zone. By 18Z this warm front is forecast
to extend from a low over the central NE/SD border vicinity to near
the MN/IA border. Convergence along this boundary, as well as ascent
attendant to a convectively generated vorticity maximum rounding the
upper ridge, is expected to promote thunderstorm development within
the moderate buoyant airmass in place. Moderate southwesterly flow
aloft is anticipated over the region as well, with the resulting
combination of buoyancy and shear supporting strong to severe
storms. A few supercells are possible, but one or more bowing line
segments capable of damaging gusts are the primary severe threat.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
The shortwave trough that currently extends from central MT trough
eastern ID is forecast to continue eastward today. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon
from eastern Colorado northwestward into eastern Montana. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered convective initiation will take
place in the higher terrain, with storms moving east-northeastward
into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Vertical shear will
be modest, with the strongest shear across the northern High Plains,
but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could still
support damaging wind gusts along surging cold pools. Isolated hail
is possible across the higher terrain as well.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the
primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High
Plains.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains...
Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the
U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts
east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface
front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is
ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into
northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains.
Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper
Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains
will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated
composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight.

A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will
further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends
southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from
cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer
will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS,
where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The
aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and
high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization.
However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into
several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes
into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger
storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into
parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to
mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across
the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may
accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a
deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of
clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as
this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and
northern OK late.

Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is
across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest
flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along
the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to
develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this
region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but
modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should
spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are
expected.

...Mid Atlantic states...
A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the
region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst
weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms
and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph)
may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025

$$
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