ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the
Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas.

...20z update...
Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential
continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial
diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few
clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid
Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in
combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds
as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient
supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the
evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be
possible with any stronger rotating storms.

...AL and western GA...
Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the
Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon
into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid
to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical
jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of
line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally
greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind
probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective
organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing
and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see
the previous discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 05/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present
along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from
parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop
this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with
additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated
with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will
gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few
hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher
terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will
support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered
damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters
that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but
some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater
confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where
the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The
tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some
modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in
occasional low-level updraft rotation.

...Southeast...
12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that
convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning
hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread
cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning
should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon
along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front,
which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of
renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still,
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to
gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper
trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward.
This should support some threat for organized convection, and
isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form.
With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability
developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include
greater severe wind probabilities at this time.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of
the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves
eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited,
increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid
in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated
threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a
very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the
strongest cores.

...Far West Texas...
Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across
far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still
appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow
regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain
modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper
levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some
updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a
supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced
a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041252
SWODY1
SPC AC 041250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central
and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and
evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts,
and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are
possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau.

...New Mexico/West Texas...
In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts,
increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will
overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to
near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into
east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with
height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the
probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized
severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level
hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support
a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late
afternoon into the evening.

...Florida...
A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a
lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a
localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing
cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but
gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the
east coast, which will also probably influence storm development.
Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized
storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado
threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or
any other boundaries.

...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas...
East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold
temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization
across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania.
Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude
vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst
diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather
weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow
could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be
realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest
storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk
caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater
destabilization appears likely.

Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic
region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE
may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is
more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to
modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms
that can mature within this environment could become modestly
organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana...
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening
across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates.
Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger
storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent
outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of
low-end severe probabilities.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 112000
SWODY1
SPC AC 111959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern
Rockies/Great Basin and the Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon
into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
across the Southeast today through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The only noteworthy change with this update was a southwestward
expansion of the Slight Risk area into northern UT, driven by
15-percent severe wind probabilities. Here, ample diurnal heating
has resulted in a deep/dry boundary layer supportive of scattered
severe wind gusts accompanying high-based storms. Reference Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #245 for more details. Farther east, isolated
severe storms capable of producing locally damaging winds and
marginally severe hail remain possible across the Southeast into
this evening. Reference MCDs #766/767 for details.

..Weinman.. 05/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025/

...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin...
Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the
day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses
eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA
into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the
airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave
trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms
across the high terrain during the afternoon within this
destabilized airmass.

Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with
this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as
the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential
exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an
increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into
central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as
storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures.

...Southeast States...
Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show
the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad
swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low
from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become
increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two
days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation,
but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary
boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to
the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across
southern GA.

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is
for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of
the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit
heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest
buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some
transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected
to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated
damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential
exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across
southern GA around 00Z.

Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is
forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath
cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft,
overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to
mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional
southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear
could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells
may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts,
and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late
afternoon through early/mid-evening.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221239
SWODY1
SPC AC 221237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the southern Plains this
afternoon and evening. Large hail is the main threat, along with
severe gusts. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible.

...Southern Plains...
Weak short-wave ridging will shift into the central High Plains
later today and mid-level heights are forecast to rise from the
southern Rockies into the northern Plains. As this occurs, a
synoptic front draped across OK will sag south and sharpen over the
TX South Plains/southern OK by mid-late afternoon. Strong heating
south of the boundary will contribute to a moderately to very
unstable airmass. Scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve and
mature within this steep lapse-rate environment with 0-6km bulk
shear around 40kt. Wind profiles favor supercells and hodographs
suggest very large hail is likely with the most robust updrafts.
Severe gusts are possible with the stronger downdrafts and upscale
growth into a couple of thunderstorm clusters is forecast during the
evening as this activity moves into northwest/north-central TX
during the evening hours.

...Southern/Eastern Florida...
Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a
large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough. Deep westerly flow favors an
east coast sea breeze, and this should be where convection focuses
as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and lower 90s. Localized
severe gusts and large hail are the primary threats with this
diurnally driven convection.

...Central High Plains...
The aforementioned mid-level ridge and an eastward-migrating
mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will favor southeasterly
low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains. Modest
moisture coupled with strong heating will yield 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE
by mid afternoon east of the Front Range. Recent model runs of the
HRRR show a dearth of storm coverage, but the 00z HREF implies at
least isolated storms. Elongated straight-line hodographs will
support east-southeastward moving storms within an environment
featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km). A couple of
stronger storms may result in an isolated risk for large hail/severe
gusts.

..Smith/Marsh.. 05/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271204
SWODY1
SPC AC 271202

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across
parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large
hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of
Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the
Southeast.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its
structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS,
with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass
downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at
the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the
development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early
afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts
along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it
tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave
trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the
north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the
threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by
this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the
boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance
for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing
activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and
damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form.

...Southern Plains...
An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf
Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its
wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX
and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed
this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for
hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this
afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves
from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern
High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain
in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm
development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong
instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep
mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from
higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is
expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual
strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still
foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells
posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be
the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or
more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears
possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection
spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly
deep south TX.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central
states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over
the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon
before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While
instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level
lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear
to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail
and severe wind gusts with this activity.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281242
SWODY1
SPC AC 281240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes should occur today across
parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur
across portions of the Gulf Coast/Southeast.

...Eastern Colorado into Kansas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and
Western Oklahoma...

A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across
the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the
southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a
narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across
eastern CO into southwest KS and the OK/northern TX Panhandles by
mid afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should initiate across eastern CO/southwest NE and vicinity by 18-21Z as large-scale ascent
attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the developing warm
sector. Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to
west-northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height through mid
levels. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support mainly
supercell structures, with an initial threat for large to isolated
very large hail. With time, a bowing complex should evolve from
parts of western/southern KS into northwest OK and the OK/TX
Panhandles, with a greater threat for scattered severe winds
apparent this evening. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow
zone across southwest KS and vicinity where low-level shear should
be maximized along a warm front late this afternoon/early evening,
especially if a semi-discrete mode can be maintained.

...Western North Texas into North/Central Texas...

A remnant MCV over west TX will drift slowly eastward today towards north/central TX. While convection occurred yesterday and is still
ongoing this morning across parts of this region, it appears likely
that at least some destabilization will occur through this afternoon
along/near a remnant surface front draped generally west to east
over central TX. Most high-resolution guidance shows scattered
thunderstorms developing by 18-20Z in close proximity to the MCV.
Modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies associated with this
feature should support enough deep-layer shear for updraft
organization and some supercell/large hail potential initially. With
time, a small bowing cluster may develop and pose more of a severe
wind threat through the late afternoon and evening as convection
spreads generally east-southeastward into central TX before
eventually weakening. A tornado or two may also occur, as low-level
shear will be modestly enhanced the by MCV. Based on recent guidance
trends, the Slight Risk has been expanded southeastward to include
more of central TX.

...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind
large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west
TX, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak
afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains and vicinity. Hail/wind may occur with any of the stronger
cores that can be sustained. Have maintained the Slight Risk for
hail over parts of this area. But, confidence in overall severe
thunderstorm coverage is low, as low-level upslope flow is forecast
to be weaker compared to yesterday.

...Deep South Texas...

With an unstable airmass remaining in place across deep south TX, a
small cluster of thunderstorms near the lower TX Coast may continue
to pose a severe/damaging wind threat for another hour or two this
morning before moving offshore.

...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast...

A broad and rather unfocused zone of marginal/isolated severe
potential remains apparent downstream of ongoing convection this
morning across the middle TX Coast and central TX vicinity. A
weak/convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward from central/east TX across parts of the lower MS
Valley through the afternoon and evening. As modest large-scale
ascent associated with this feature overspreads a gradually
destabilizing warm sector, a band of convection may develop across
LA/MS with some risk for hail and damaging winds. Severe potential
across the remainder of the Southeast along/near a stalled front is
even less clear owing to weak large-scale forcing. Still, a
conditional threat for strong/gusty winds may exist with any
convection that can form through peak afternoon heating as low-level
lapse rates slowly steepen.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/28/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311252
SWODY1
SPC AC 311251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible this afternoon
into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the Red River.

...Central/southern Plains...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains will
move south/southeast across the central and southern Plains through
tonight, as an associated cold front drops south through KS and OK.
Modest low-level moisture transport, combined with
evapotranspiration, will result in low 60s dew points and moderate
MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) in advance of the front. Favorable
deep-layer shear and long hodographs will support supercells capable
of large hail and localized severe gusts with initial development.
Low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but a tornado
cannot be ruled out with any stronger/sustained supercell. Storms
may tend to evolve into a cluster/compact MCS with time, and
possibly move into parts of north TX later tonight.

...Eastern KY/TN into the Mid Atlantic...
An expansive mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much
of the eastern CONUS today. A mid/upper-level speed maximum will
move through the base of the trough across NC/VA during the
afternoon and early evening. Despite limited low-level moisture,
cold temperatures aloft will support generally weak but sufficient
buoyancy for widely scattered storm development with a
southeast-moving cold front. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will
be possible with the strongest storms. Any clustering of storms
could result in more concentrated areas of wind-damage potential.
Some potential exists for greater concentration of strong/severe
storms from eastern VA across the DelMarVa peninsula and into
southern NJ this afternoon as the cold front encounters somewhat
greater instability. Higher severe probabilities may be warranted
with the next outlook update if confidence in this scenario increases.

...Central/south FL...
Ongoing morning storms, occasionally strong to marginally severe,
continue across the central FL peninsula at 13z. These storms will
continue moving south today, where deep-layer shear will remain
sufficient to support modest storm organization and some continued
potential for gusty/damaging winds and perhaps small hail. Most
guidance continues to suggest redevelopment of thunderstorms across
the peninsula later tonight, with sufficient deep-layer shear
remaining in place for a few stronger storms.

...CO/NM...
Isolated stronger storms may develop from south-central/southeast CO
into northeast NM, within a modestly moist and unstable environment.
While confidence in more than a very isolated severe threat remains
low with this outlook, severe probabilities may need to be
considered if trends support greater coverage of severe potential
into the late afternoon and evening.

..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/31/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 312000
SWODY1
SPC AC 311958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts remain possible late this
afternoon into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma
to the Red River. Isolated strong to severe storms may still occur
this afternoon over parts of the Mid-Atlantic coastal region.

...20Z Update...
The main changes made to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook were
to remove Slight Risk probabilities across the Mid Atlantic, and
remove Marginal Risk probabilities across the southern FL Peninsula.
Over the Mid-Atlantic, a loosely organized MCS has moved offshore,
leaving an overturned airmass in its wake. Though thunderstorms
remain possible in this area, buoyancy should be diluted enough to
reduce the severe threat to some degree. Similarly, the passage of
strong thunderstorms, along with residual cloud cover, will also
limit additional thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula,
though a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 05/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025/

...KS/OK...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
digging southward across the Dakotas. This feature will approach KS
by late afternoon, and track into the southern Plains overnight.
Strong heating and steep lapse rates ahead of the trough, combined
with increasing large scale ascent, will result in scattered
thunderstorms over eastern NE/northern KS with a risk of hail and
gusty winds. As this activity moves southward into a progressively
more moist/unstable air mass, thunderstorm intensification is
expected - mainly after dark. Storms will continue southward across
southern KS into OK, with a few supercells expected capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Storms may persist into the overnight
hours across southern OK/north TX.

...DelMarVa...
A broad upper trough is present today over the northeast states,
with a compact shortwave trough over southwest PA approaching the
DelMarVa region. This system will promote afternoon convective
development from southeast PA into eastern VA, with storms spreading
across eastern MD/DE/southern NJ before tracking offshore. Cool
temperatures aloft and sufficient westerly mid-level winds suggest
the potential for thunderstorm organization and a few severe storms
capable of damaging winds and hail. Refer to MCD #1054 for further
details.

...South FL...
A sagging cold front will continue to result in a few strong
thunderstorms across south FL this afternoon, capable of locally
gusty winds. Refer to MCD #1053 for further details.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 011252
SWODY1
SPC AC 011251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later
today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee
River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains,
northern Rockies, and south Florida.

...Central and eastern TX...
Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have
moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far
remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are
for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger
storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters
moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly
deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for
organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to
very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting
with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in
the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear.

...TN to the Carolinas...
A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO
southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest
low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold
temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will
allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the
front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this
afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward
extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may
support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging
wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more
concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests
this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association
with a weak surface low moving east along the front.

...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the
Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak
to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will
support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an
attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the
extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of
somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area.

...South FL...
Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level
confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally
exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for
modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms
spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early
afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening
mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some
storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and
hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early
afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to
Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term
thinking in this area.

...Eastern CO/NM...
Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long
and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer
flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some
increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial
storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe
gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized
clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to
locally severe outflow winds.

...Southern CA into southern/central AZ...
A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of
southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread
the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation
will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will
be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time.

...Great Basin...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from
parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to
remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however
localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime
through early evening.

..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 020530
SWODY1
SPC AC 020528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains
into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...High Plains to southwestern MN...

Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over
southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This
feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt
500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter
half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this
region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold
front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley.

Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be
noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates
forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of
northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front
by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the
wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially
early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential
clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind.

Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low
is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula.
This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains
by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will
prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much
of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately
sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk
appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as
convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by
southern-stream short wave.

...South Florida...

Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS
Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late
afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the
southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across
southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount
of convection across this region as large-scale support increases
ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms,
beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may
be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a
local wind/hail threat with this activity.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031237
SWODY1
SPC AC 031236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
eastern CO/northeastern NM, embedded within larger upper troughing
that extends over much of the western and central CONUS. An
extensive area of showers and thunderstorms (i.e. from the TX Hill
Country into IA and MN) is ongoing ahead of this shortwave trough
and its associated cold front. These showers and thunderstorms will
likely continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, which
could limit diurnal heating along the frontal zone, particularly
from the IL/IA border vicinity northward. This limited heating will
temper the overall buoyancy in those areas, keeping the severe risk
isolated despite the presence of stronger deep-layer shear than
areas farther south.

Moderate diurnal heating appears likely ahead of the cold front
from the IA/MO/IL border intersection vicinity southwestward across
MO and into eastern OK and KS. However, the amount of precipitation
currently ongoing in this region and upstream does introduce some
doubt to whether or not highs in the mid 80s will be realized. Even
if temperatures stay in the upper 70s/low 80s, abundant low-level
moisture coupled with relatively modest mid-level temperatures
should still result in an uncapped airmass ahead of the front during
the early afternoon. Given the line-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear across this region, expectation is for a
predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments
capable of producing damaging gusts.

The strongest heating ahead of the cold front is anticipated from
western OK south into the TX Hill Country. Here, afternoon
temperatures will likely reach the low 90s amid dewpoints in the
upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). These surface conditions will
help support strong to very strong buoyancy ahead of the front, with
MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg for much of this region by 21Z. Robust
thunderstorms are expected to develop when the front interacts with
this buoyancy, with potential for some pre-frontal development
within areas of low-level confluence as well. An initially more
cellular mode is likely, and vertical shear is forecast to be strong
enough to support supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk
with these storms, but some low tornado potential exists as well,
particularly near a low expected to be over the southwest
OK/northwest TX region during the afternoon. Given the frontal
forcing and widespread coverage, a quick transition to a linear mode
appears likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe
risk. The deep-shear vector here should be more orthogonal to the
line than areas farther north, fostering the potential for a more forward-propagating convective line across central OK and
north-central/central TX from the late afternoon through the
evening. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue
along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 040536
SWODY1
SPC AC 040535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into
the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany
convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas.

...Southern High Plains...

Mid-level height falls across the lower CO River Valley are
beginning to dislodge an upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula.
This feature is forecast to advance to near the AZ/NM border by 18z,
then into the southern Rockies by 05/00z. Latest model guidance
suggests 500 mb flow in excess of 40kt will translate across
southern NM into the TX Panhandle by peak heating. Some pressure
reduction is expected across the southern High Plains ahead of this
feature, and a LLJ should develop after sunset from west TX into
southeast NM. This large-scale evolution favors low-level moisture
being drawn into the higher terrain of northern NM. Strongest
boundary-layer heating is forecast across southwestern NM, but
modest heating will contribute to destabilization across much of
eastern NM by late afternoon. Current thinking is scattered robust
convection, including supercells, should generate across the higher
terrain of the Sangre de Cristo range, then spread east ahead of the
short wave. Forecast soundings favor hail, and perhaps a few severe
wind gusts. A brief tornado or two can also not be ruled out as this
activity spreads toward the southern TX Panhandle.

...Elsewhere...

A narrow corridor of high PW air mass (1.75-2 inches) will extend
across eastern TX-AR-southern MO-IL-southern lower MI. Poor lapse
rates will be noted along this corridor, but modest instability and
adequate 0-6km shear suggest a few robust storms could evolve that
would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for
damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy will be
its greatest.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 050549
SWODY1
SPC AC 050547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains
from southwestern Kansas into west Texas. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the
day1 period as broad upper ridging holds across northeast Mexico
into the lower MS Valley. Along the northern periphery of this
feature, a few weak disturbances are forecast to translate across
the southwestern U.S. into the southern/central High Plains region.
Each of these features should encourage potentially robust, deep
convection.

Early this morning, a notable MCS has evolved over the TX Panhandle.
This complex has been partly aided by a low-amplitude short-wave
trough that will translate into eastern KS/OK later today. While
this convection is currently well-organized, with time this activity
should gradually weaken downstream over western OK/northwest TX. Of
potential concern will be the influence on boundary-layer stability
and the position of convective outflow boundaries. If the MCS
continues as currently anticipated, a possible demarcation in
buoyancy may extend across the TX South Plains into far eastern NM
by peak heating. Remnant outflow will likely serve as the focus for
robust convection later this afternoon as temperatures warm into the
mid 80s-lower 90s, west and south of the outflow. Forecast soundings
along this corridor exhibit strong deep-layer shear and substantial
0-3km SRH. Supercells should develop across the southern High Plains
and very large hail may accompany these robust updrafts.
Additionally, profiles appear favorable for tornadoes, especially if
the aforementioned convective outflow maintains some identity.

A secondary area of potential convective concentration will be
across southeast CO into southwest KS. Models suggest strong
boundary-layer heating will develop across northeast NM into the
western OK Panhandle, just south of a secondary weak frontal zone
that should drape itself across this region. Supercells should
easily develop along this boundary then possibly grow upscale into a
larger complex of storms as it spreads downstream along the KS/OK
border after sunset. All hazards are possible with this activity,
but any tornado threat will likely be concentrated with more
isolated supercells early in the convective evolution.

...Elsewhere...

High-PW plume currently stretches across the lower MS Valley-OH
Valley-lower Great Lakes-southeast Canada. Scattered convection will
readily develop along this corridor, juxtaposed along a weak frontal
zone. Poor lapse rates should limit updraft strength, but some risk
for an isolated severe wind gust does exist.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101219
SWODY1
SPC AC 101217

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley,
along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern
California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies.

...Central/East TX This Morning...
Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking
slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has
been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty
winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the
MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV
may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and
central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support
re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast
scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon.
However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk
area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates.

...Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening...
The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is
sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level
winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating,
is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late
afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over
the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward
through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Coastal GA/SC...
Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of
daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification
by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts.

...Eastern FL Peninsula...
Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong
instability later this afternoon along the northeast and
east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm
development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep
low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in
the strongest cells.

...NY/New England...
A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon
over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist
and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the
Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of
gusty winds and hail.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121242
SWODY1
SPC AC 121241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible
today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and
wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas
coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of
the northern Mid Atlantic.

...NE/SD...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over eastern
MT, with a mid-level speed max tracking across WY. Large-scale lift
associated with the jet max will overspread parts of NE/SD by late
afternoon along a stalled surface boundary. At least widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for a few hours (mainly
21-03z), with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient deep-layer
shear for a few organized/rotating cells. Locally damaging winds
and hail are possible. Overnight CAM guidance has shown consistency
on the corridor most likely to see storms, so have added a narrow
SLGT to cover this threat.

...East TX/LA/AR...
An upper trough is located over central TX, where widespread
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning. A few of these storms have
shown supercell tendencies overnight. Model guidance and local VAD
data suggest a region of enhanced low/mid level flow to the east of
the upper trough, extending from central into northeast TX. As the
trough moves northeastward today, the combination of a very moist
and modestly unstable air mass, sufficient low/deep layer shear, and considerable coverage of thunderstorms, will contribute to a risk of
a few locally damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes. Will maintain
MRGL risk for today due to widespread clouds and limited opportunity
for heating.

...GA/SC/NC...
Strong heating is expected today across parts of GA/SC/NC, where
temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70F are forecast.
This will lead to widespread moderate CAPE values and the
development scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear is
weak, but a few weakly organized thunderstorm clusters may reach
severe intensity with gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221241
SWODY1
SPC AC 221239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today
across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of
which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
Storms associated with severe gusts and hail may also develop across
parts of the Northeast, and in the southern and central Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are currently moving
northeastward across the eastern Dakotas. A few stronger storms are
embedded within these clusters and overall trends suggest increasing
storm coverage is possible as these storms move into more of eastern
ND and northwest/west-central MN. The airmass here is characterized
by very steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8 to 8.5 deg C per km
from 700 to 500 mb per recent mesoanalysis) and moderate deep-layer
vertical shear. These environmental conditions support the potential
for large hail within any more organized updrafts throughout the
morning. See MCD #1400 for additional details.

The strength and extent of these early day storms could impact
thunderstorm chances later. However, the general expectation
supported by all the guidance is that the airmass should easily
recover as the surface low currently over the western SD/NE border
vicinity shifts northeastward across SD and moderate/strong
southerly surface winds persist through the warm sector. By 21Z, the
surface low will likely be over northeast SD with a cold front
extending north-northeastward to a secondary low over northern MN.
Warm mid-level temperatures will cap the airmass until after 21Z,
when isolated development appears possible across northern MN.
Another scenario is for early afternoon initiation behind the front
across ND, supported by a weak vorticity maximum moving out of
western SD. These storms could then gradually move northeastward
into the more unstable airmass farther east. In either case, any
warm-sector development would likely be supercellular and capable of
all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 2" in diameter,
gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes. The warm front is currently expected
to be just north of the international border, keeping the best
tornado environment in Canada. Upscale growth into a
forward-progressing MCS is possible, but there is currently low
confidence in the overall storm evolution.

Additional development is also possible farther south from
central/eastern NE into eastern SD this evening. This activity
should initially be elevated with hail as the primary risk. A
general northeastward motion is anticipated and there is some chance
for this activity to begin interacting with the frontal zone. If
that occurs, some strong gusts are also possible throughout the
evening.

Lastly, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears probable
across far eastern WY, the NE Panhandle, and southwest SD. High
storm bases coupled with modest buoyancy, deep mixing, and steep
low-level lapse rates will support the potential for strong outflow
with this activity.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture advection and related airmass destabilization
coupled with low-level convergence along the lee trough is expected
to result in widespread convective initiation from eastern
CO/western KS through eastern NM and into far west TX. Vertical
shear will be modest, likely resulting in a predominantly
outflow-dominant storm structure and the potential for damaging wind
gusts. Some isolated hail is possible as well.

...Northeast...
Remnants of an overnight MCS currently cover much of the Northeast,
with the strongest storms confined to just north of the outflow
along its western periphery. Given the extensive precipitation
ongoing, this outflow will likely shift gradually
south-southwestward throughout the morning. Warm-air advection along
this boundary will weaken throughout the day as upper ridging builds
northward into the region. Even so, low-level convergence along this
boundary will likely continue, and there is some chance for
thunderstorms to persist along this boundary as well. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and resulting strong buoyancy will support a
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon/evening in the vicinity of this boundary. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the primary risk with any storms that do develop.

..Mosier/Dean.. 06/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231223
SWODY1
SPC AC 231221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the
Great Lakes.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing
through ND and southern SK/MB. Surface analysis places the low
associated with this shortwave over far northwestern ON, with an
attendant cold front arcing from this low through the MN arrowhead
and back through south-central MN, northwest IA,
eastern/south-central NE to another low in northwest KS. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along this frontal zone from northeast NE
into southern MN.

Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
through far northwest ON throughout the day, with the primary
surface low also tracking northeastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. Gradual eastward/southeastward progress of the cold front
is anticipated, although its forward progression will slow with
time, particularly from the Mid MO Valley southwestward into the
southern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass exists ahead of this
front, with temperatures expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s
amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. These conditions will
result in strong buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition
along much of the front by 21Z.

Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, but persist
low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection,
with numerous to widespread thunderstorms anticipated. The stronger
deep-layer vertical shear will lag behind the front across much of
the region, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample moisture
should still result in sporadic damaging gusts. There will be better
overlap between the shear and buoyancy from WI into MI, and there is
some chance for one or more forward-propagating line segments in
this area. Some isolated hail is possible within the more robust
early-stage storms. Storm mergers could also result in updrafts
briefly becoming strong enough to produce hail.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
amid persistent low-level convergence within the warm, moist, and
weakly sheared airmass over the region. The lack of stronger shear
will result in largely outflow-dominant storm structures. Given the
high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, damaging gusts are
possible with the stronger storms.

...Northern ME...
A convectively augmented vorticity maximum currently over
northeastern ON is forecast progress eastward through southern QC
and into the Canadian Maritimes during the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this vorticity max, with a few stronger
storms potentially glancing northern ME this evening. Moderately low
to mid-level westerly flow will support the threat for some damaging
gusts as these storms move through the region.

...Southeast...
Scattered to numerous diurnally driven thunderstorm are expected
across the region today. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular
pulse mode anticipated. Given the ample moisture and likelihood of
storm interactions, a few strong, water-loaded downbursts are
possible. Limited coverage precludes the need for any severe
probabilities.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/23/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241239
SWODY1
SPC AC 241238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be
likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and
northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this
afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into
the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over
much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great
Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK
is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading
to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively
augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the
northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial
shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will
lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge
as well.

Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated
by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between
the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental
airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent
surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary
boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over
WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI
low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the
70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating,
and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest
low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains
through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear
will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing
to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible
with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is
expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed
below).

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the
region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in
the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level
moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by
the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm
expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then
moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will
be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of
producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more
outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or
more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing.
This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado
threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY
into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best
overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds
is expected.

...Southern Rockies...
Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to
widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very
shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular
mode.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251241
SWODY1
SPC AC 251239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST...AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A large upper ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS
this morning, although an upper low centered northeast of the
Bahamas is beginning to impinge on its southeastern periphery.
Early-morning satellite imagery also shows a well-defined shortwave
trough moving through southern CA and southern Great Basin.

Recent surface analysis reveals a large reservoir of low-level
moisture beneath this upper ridge, with low 70s dewpoints over much
of the OH and TN Valleys, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. This
low-level moisture extends across much of the Plains as well, with
mid 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central/southeast SD. A
diffuse, somewhat wavy stationary boundary exists between this moist
airmass and the drier, more continental airmass edging into the
northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes.

This large area of ample low-level moisture will support potential thunderstorms much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Highest
coverage of strong to severe storms is anticipated across the Mid MO
Valley and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic, with more widely scattered
strong to severe storms across the northern and central High Plains
and along the frontal zone across the northern OH Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
In addition to the moist airmass described in the synopsis, a pocket
of seasonally cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -10 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the Bahamas upper low extends into the
region. 12Z MHX and CHS soundings sampled -10 and -12 deg C at 500
mb, and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.9 and 8.4 deg C per km,
respectively. These thermodynamic conditions will result in very
strong buoyancy as the airmass diurnally heats this afternoon.
MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg is anticipated from AL eastward into the
Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is expected once convective
inhibition erodes around 18Z, with the very strong buoyancy
supporting intense updrafts. Vertical shear will be weak, with
erratic storm motions and a multicellular, pulse mode likely. Even
so, steep low-level lapse rates should support strong downdrafts and
numerous instances of damaging gusts are expected. These storms will
likely wane with the loss of daytime heating.

...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley...
Low-level moisture advection across the region today will bring low
70s dewpoints in southern MN by the late afternoon, while also
sharpening a warm frontal zone. By 18Z this warm front is forecast
to extend from a low over the central NE/SD border vicinity to near
the MN/IA border. Convergence along this boundary, as well as ascent
attendant to a convectively generated vorticity maximum rounding the
upper ridge, is expected to promote thunderstorm development within
the moderate buoyant airmass in place. Moderate southwesterly flow
aloft is anticipated over the region as well, with the resulting
combination of buoyancy and shear supporting strong to severe
storms. A few supercells are possible, but one or more bowing line
segments capable of damaging gusts are the primary severe threat.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
The shortwave trough that currently extends from central MT trough
eastern ID is forecast to continue eastward today. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon
from eastern Colorado northwestward into eastern Montana. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered convective initiation will take
place in the higher terrain, with storms moving east-northeastward
into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Vertical shear will
be modest, with the strongest shear across the northern High Plains,
but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could still
support damaging wind gusts along surging cold pools. Isolated hail
is possible across the higher terrain as well.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the
primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High
Plains.

...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains...
Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the
U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts
east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface
front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is
ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into
northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains.
Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper
Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains
will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated
composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight.

A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will
further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends
southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from
cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer
will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS,
where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The
aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and
high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization.
However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into
several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes
into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger
storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into
parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to
mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across
the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may
accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a
deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of
clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as
this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and
northern OK late.

Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is
across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest
flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along
the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to
develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this
region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but
modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should
spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are
expected.

...Mid Atlantic states...
A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the
region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst
weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms
and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph)
may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091254
SWODY1
SPC AC 091253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail
and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the
northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic
through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the
Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again
expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians
and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the
coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture
will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations.

Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of
Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to
somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions.
Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete
convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the
primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop.

...Northern/central Plains...
Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an
upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues
to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by
late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should
be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the
short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of
elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are
somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and
modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep
convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared
to various global guidance.

A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to
northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse
rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the
proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will
support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially,
with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail.
Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering
east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a
risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph
on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward
across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma.

...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern
Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level
flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this
favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through
daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to
isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into
Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah.

...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio...
Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur
this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak
upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and
deep-layer shear.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101301
SWODY1
SPC AC 101259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest.
Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast
and Southeast.

...Central Plains to Midwest...
A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences
including MCV development and convective overturning, at least
temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat
consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an
MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field,
could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today,
potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models
indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow
(including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist
through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears
that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm
activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts.

Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska
into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height,
might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable
CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening.

...New England and Upper Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec
today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic
flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England.
Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable
during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE
(1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of
20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will
be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York
and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear
should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front.

...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent
associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations,
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters
may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength
westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard regionally.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 111256
SWODY1
SPC AC 111254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some
tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest.

...Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley to Great Lakes...
A decayed overnight MCS and residual convection/cloud cover will
reinforce the baroclinic zone regionally. Near/south of the
boundary, surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on
the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. This will be beneath a lingering belt
of convectively augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt
in the 700-500 mb layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs in advance of a weak surface wave, the
environment should become conducive to supercell structures into
mid/late afternoon. These supercells may pose a risk for hail and
potentially a couple of tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri
and southern/eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, and possibly far
southern Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts should become the more
predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale
into east/southeastward-moving clusters this evening.

...Central High Plains...
The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe
storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska/northwest
Kansas. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be
expected, and one or more east/eastward-moving clusters may evolve
by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility.

...Upper Midwest...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected
near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon, including
the eastern Dakotas into much of Minnesota. This will be influenced
by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the
Dakotas/northern Minnesota. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear
will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will
support storms capable of hail/wind.

...Southern Rockies into the Great Plains...
Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture,
but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep
boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered
thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late
this afternoon and evening. A degree of storm organization may be
aided by modest shear beneath northwesterly mid-level flow, with
thunderstorm activity mostly initiating off the higher terrain of
the Front Range through Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Additionally,
low-level convergence within surface troughing across southern
Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity may also become
sufficient for thunderstorm initiation during the peak late
afternoon heating, and one or more semi-organized clusters capable
of wind damage could evolve. This region will be reevaluated in
subsequent outlooks for potential inclusion of a wind-related Slight Risk.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/11/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121251
SWODY1
SPC AC 121250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and
Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake
Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking
on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation
ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be
relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt
mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the
lower/middle Ohio River vicinity.

Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may
occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan,
which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along
an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to
late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the
Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will
be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level
temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind
speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer
shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will
be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will
subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio.

Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the
secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern
Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will
aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly
low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear
and help to marginalize the overall threat.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas...
Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple
slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across
southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely
diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of
Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related
enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist
today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and
quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent.
Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region
will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should
confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential
this afternoon through early evening.

...Colorado/New Mexico...
Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the
higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as
numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail
will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly
across interior to southern New Mexico.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina...
A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear
but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet
microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage
possible.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161232
SWODY1
SPC AC 161230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A well-defined MCV is evident on radar/satellite imagery this
morning over IA. This feature will drift east-northeastward today
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, eventually reaching southern
Ontario tonight. A related surface low will develop from IA to
southern WI and Lake Michigan this afternoon/evening, with the
primary synoptic front farther north in WI. Diurnal heating of a
rather moist low-level airmass will likely yield around 1000-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE across southern WI into northern/central IL (locally
stronger with southward extent). The modestly enhanced low/mid-level
winds associated with the MCV should support around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, sufficient for organized severe thunderstorms.

Current expectations are for a band of semi-discrete thunderstorms
to develop across eastern IA into northern IL and southern/central
WI by early to mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the
MCV overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. Some of this activity
could be supercellular initially and pose a threat for isolated
severe hail along with damaging winds. With time late this afternoon
and evening, gradual upscale growth into a bowing cluster should
occur, with a greater risk for severe/damaging winds towards Lake
Michigan and parts of southern Lower MI. Although low-level flow and
related shear is not forecast to become overly strong this
afternoon, it should be sufficient for some low-level updraft
rotation and perhaps a few tornadoes, particularly across parts of
southern WI/northern IL where semi-discrete convection may occur.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough located over the OH Valley this
morning will advance northeastward today to the northern
Mid-Atlantic/NY. Recent visible satellite imagery this morning shows considerable cloud cover present with this feature, along with some
low clouds downstream. Even so, filtered daytime heating of a
seasonably moist airmass should support the development of weak to
locally moderate instability by this afternoon. Poor lapse rates
aloft may tend to inhibit stronger updrafts to some extent, but
marginal deep-layer shear (generally around 20-30 kt) should still
support some degree of convective organization. Loosely organized
clusters and occasional cells may pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds as they spread generally east-northeastward across
parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening.
Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds remains
too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time.

...Central Plains to Northern Missouri...
A convectively reinforced surface front should stall by this
afternoon across KS into eastern CO, with a modest low-level upslope
flow regime occurring across the Front Range/central High Plains. On
the southern periphery of an upper trough moving eastward over the northern/central Plains, thunderstorms should develop by early
afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies. This
convection is forecast to move eastward into the adjacent High
Plains through the rest of the afternoon, and continuing through the
evening. The post-frontal airmass should only modestly destabilize,
but enough instability and the presence of steepened lapse rates
aloft are forecast to support robust updrafts. Weak low-level flow
veering to westerly and gradually strengthening with height at
mid/upper levels will likely foster around 35-45 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will easily support supercells and associated large hail
threat with the initial development. Some potential for upscale
growth into a loosely organized cluster is possible across southeast
CO and vicinity this evening along/near the stalled surface front.
If this occurs, then severe winds would become the primary risk.

Farther east across KS into northern MO, isolated convection may
develop through peak afternoon heating along the front. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain fairly modest, strong
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates could still support
occasional severe hail/wind with the more robust cores that can be
sustained. Additional convection may develop along/north of the
front this evening in a low-level warm advection regime, while also
posing an isolated severe threat.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Convection offshore from the central Gulf Coast remains disorganized
this morning, as a weak surface low (Invest 93L) remains along/near
the coast of the FL Panhandle. Regardless of potential tropical
development (reference latest NHC forecast), modest enhancement to
the low-level wind field should occur as this feature tracks towards coastal/southeast LA by early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms should occasionally spread inland along/near the central Gulf Coast through
the period, but overall severe potential still appears too limited
to introduce a Marginal Risk with this update.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/16/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 201230
SWODY1
SPC AC 201228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms appear most likely later today into this
evening across parts of the Northeast, Midwest and Ohio Valley, and
northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northeast today with
increasing mid-level flow ahead of an approaching jet streak. A
low-amplitude ridge will build somewhat across the Upper Midwest.
Farther west, mid-level flow will strengthen across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains as a trough amplifies on the
Pacific Northwest coast.

As of 12Z, an elongated frontal zone exists from the Northeast to
the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes and into the northern Plains.
Ongoing thunderstorms are present across the eastern Great Lakes,
the Midwest, and the northern Plains. This is correlated with the
stronger ascent and the areas with the greatest severe weather
potential today.

...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop across the
Northeast today as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, and as mid-level temperatures gradually cool through
the day. As the cold front advances east into this uncapped airmass,
scattered thunderstorms should develop. Shear of 30 to 35 knots and
relatively long/straight hodographs will support the potential for
supercells. Weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting
factor for large hail, but the overall favorable shear with strong
venting aloft and potential supercells may support some isolated
large hail.

Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, both from initial
cells and also from any clusters which develop. Any stronger
clusters with bowing segments could support a better organized
damaging wind swath. The greatest wind damage threat will likely
exist from western Massachusetts to far southern Maine.

...Ohio Valley...
A large mass of thunderstorms continues east across eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois this morning. Heating is anticipated south and
east of this activity which should result in an increasing severe
weather threat by late morning to early afternoon. It remains
unclear whether the afternoon severe threat may materialize out of
ongoing thunderstorm activity, or from additional storm development
along the front or the outflow boundary associated with these
storms. Nonetheless, 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of
35 to 40 knots will support an organized severe weather threat
including the potential for supercells. Despite the supercell mode,
the hail threat should remain minimal given the weak mid-level lapse
rates and warm mid-level temperatures with high freezing levels.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms
with the greatest threat from central Indiana to southwest Ohio and
northern Kentucky.

...Northern Plains...
Weak lee troughing is forecast in the western Nebraska vicinity
today as moderate mid-level flow overspreads the northern Plains. A
dryline will extend southward from this surface low into the central
High Plains. Isolated storms are possible along this boundary this afternoon/evening. Moderate destabilization is forecast across
central South Dakota and vicinity as low-level moisture is advected
westward to the north of the surface low.

Diurnal thunderstorm activity is forecast to be relatively isolated
along the dryline with perhaps slightly greater coverage across
eastern Minnesota amid cooler temperatures aloft. However, the
ongoing cluster of storms across North Dakota is forecast to linger
as isentropic ascent is maintained through the day. Eventual upscale
growth and a southeastward movement along the instability gradient
is anticipated. RAP forecast soundings show an environment favorable
for large hail initially with any supercells which develop. However,
the severe wind threat may increase by this evening as storms
congeal into a MCS with potential linear, bowing segments.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 07/20/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211234
SWODY1
SPC AC 211232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, severe gusts,
and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible today and tonight
across parts of the northern Plains. Additional isolated strong to
severe storms may occur across portions of the central Plains.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A long-lived and compact MCS has advanced into parts of west-central
MN this morning. This convection is on the northern periphery of
meaningful low-level moisture and related instability. It should
generally weaken over the next few hours while it tracks
southeastward over southern MN as a low-level jet gradually lessens.
But in the short term, it may still be capable of producing
occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Behind this activity, a
moist and rather unstable airmass will exist across the northern
Plains along and south of a convectively reinforced front that
should become oriented generally east-west along the ND/SD border by
late this afternoon. Large-scale ascent across the northern Plains
will likely be weak for much of the day, as upper ridging remains
prominent over the central CONUS.

Even so, there are indications that a weak mid-level perturbation
emanating from upper troughing over the Pacific Northwest should
overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains of
central/eastern MT by mid/late afternoon as ample daytime heating of
a slowly moistening low-level airmass occurs. A belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will accompany this feature,
supporting ample veering/strengthening of the wind profile with
height through mid/upper levels. Related strong deep-layer shear of
40-50+ kt will easily support supercells with initial development
off the Bighorns given the presence of at least moderate instability
across the High Plains. Large hail will be possible with these
supercells this afternoon, followed by an increasing severe wind
threat with time this evening/overnight into parts of the Dakotas as
convection potentially grows upscale, and where ample MUCAPE and
strong deep-layer shear will be present along/north of the surface
boundary. The development of elevated supercells also appears
possible across parts of the Dakotas late tonight as a low-level jet
gradually strengthens, with a related threat for at least isolated
severe hail if they occur.

...Central Plains...
Much of the central Plains will remain capped today, as the upper
ridge and warm temperatures aloft exert their influence. A surface
trough is expected to extend southward across the central High
Plains this afternoon, and a remnant MCV related to earlier
convection should move eastward along/near the NE/KS border. Both of
these features may aid in at least isolated thunderstorm development
this afternoon, in the presence of moderate to strong instability
amid modest deep-layer shear. Isolated severe hail and wind gusts
may occur with any of the more robust cores that can develop and be
maintained in an otherwise weak forcing regime. The Marginal Risk
has been expanded southward a little to include more of northern KS
and southeast NE, where strong to severe convection may develop
later today in close proximity to the MCV.

...Tennessee Valley into the Southeast...
A weak MCV related to ongoing convection across MO and southern IL
this morning will track southeastward across the TN Valley and
vicinity through this afternoon. Modest west-northwesterly flow
should be in place today across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the
Southeast. This may support loosely organized multicells and pulse thunderstorms today, as mostly sunny conditions aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, some
of this convection may still be capable of producing strong to
locally damaging winds. Parts of these regions may be considered for
inclusion in a Marginal Risk in a later outlook update, pending
additional observational/model trends.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221234
SWODY1
SPC AC 221232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the
northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging will remain anchored over the MS Valley
and Southeast today. A positively tilted upper trough will persist
over the Northwest and northern Rockies, with enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow continuing though the period over the northern
Plains. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to gradually develop
eastward across western/central SD by this evening, with a lee
trough extending southward from this low across the central High
Plains. A convectively reinforced boundary extending northeastward
from the surface low into northern MN may act as a focus for robust thunderstorm development later today.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Extensive convective overturning has occurred overnight across the
northern Plains into parts of MN, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms generally remaining sub-severe while tracking
east-northeastward along/north of the surface front. This activity
has been aided by a southerly low-level jet across the Plains, which
is forecast to gradually weaken though midday. While isolated hail
or strong to severe gusts may occur with ongoing thunderstorms, the
net effect of this convection may be to displace the surface
boundary farther south than most guidance indicates. In the wake of
this early day convection and associated weak mid-level shortwave
trough, heights are forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly
through the day across much of ND/SD into MN. This weak/nebulous
large-scale forcing casts considerable uncertainty regarding
convective development with eastward extent across the Dakotas into
MN this afternoon and evening.

Even so, it does appear probable that thunderstorms will once again
form along/near the Bighorns in northern WY/southern MT, as a weak
embedded mid-level perturbation and related jet overspread the
northern High Plains. This region will generally be post-frontal,
but steep mid-level lapse rates combined with diurnal heating of the
modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development
of at least weak instability by the time convection initiates this
afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells
initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very
large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow
upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater
threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains
high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether
it will remain surface-based or elevated.

Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that
robust convection will develop before this evening due to the
stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If
thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues
to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support
severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Sufficient
low-level shear should also be present near the front to support
some risk for a tornado. This activity would probably remain tied
close the surface boundary, with less potential for a
forward-propagating MCS into central/southern MN. Accordingly, have
trimmed the southern extent of the Slight Risk in MN. Finally, a MCV
related to extensive convection in KS yesterday is forecast to
develop northeastward across IA this afternoon/evening. Sufficient
instability and shear should be present with this feature to support
an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms, assuming convection can
develop and persist.

...Central High Plains...
Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward
across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and
deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this
region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, low-level lapse
rates should become steepened through the afternoon and early
evening with ample daytime heating. Given the deeply mixed boundary
layer forecast, any of this high-based convection could produce
occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Have therefore expanded the
Marginal Risk southward a bit into eastern CO and western KS to
account for this potential.

...Southeast...
A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC.
A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the
front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate
to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along
various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing
occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231202
SWODY1
SPC AC 231200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and
potentially a tornado risk are expected across the middle Missouri
Valley and Upper Midwest to upper Great Lakes, mainly this afternoon
and evening. Large hail may occur with supercells later today across
parts of the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough over central Canada and the
northern Rockies/High Plains will advance slowly eastward today,
impinging on an upper ridge that will remain over much of the
Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and OH Valley. A quasi-stationary surface
front arcing northeastward from a weak low in central SD should make
some southeastward progress as a cold front today across portions of
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as a low-amplitude mid-level
shortwave trough advances eastward across these regions through the
period. This front will likely serve as a continued focus for strong
to severe convection today.

...Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are occurring this morning,
generally along/north of the surface front across north-central SD
into northern MN. This activity may tend to remain somewhat elevated
through most of the morning, but it may still pose an isolated
severe hail/wind threat given the presence of moderate MUCAPE and
sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. A
separate band of elevated convection is ongoing along/near the NE/SD
border. This activity is likely more tied to low-level warm
advection, and it remains somewhat unclear what affect these
thunderstorms will have on the warm sector later today if they can
persist.

Regardless of the uncertainty with the evolution and intensity of
ongoing thunderstorms this morning, daytime heating along/south of
the front will likely aid in strong to locally extreme instability
developing by early to mid afternoon, as a very moist airmass is
already in place across the Upper Midwest per area surface
observations. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will tend
to become more modest with southward extent along the surface front.
But, they should still be sufficient to promote organized severe
convection, especially across MN into WI.

Current expectations are for multiple bowing clusters/line segments
to develop this afternoon along much of the front from NE into
eastern SD and MN. Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely be
the primary threat with this activity as it spreads eastward into
parts of northern WI and the U.P of MI this evening. Isolated hail
may occur with initial development. Modest low-level shear may also
support some tornado threat, mainly across parts of MN into WI where
a southwesterly low-level jet should be focused later this
afternoon/early evening. To account for both the ongoing activity
and recent guidance trends suggesting an earlier/westward start to
robust thunderstorms this afternoon along the front, the Marginal
and Slight Risks have been expanded westward some across NE/SD/MN
with this update.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, east-northeasterly low-level
winds will persist beneath moderately strong westerlies aloft to
yield relatively long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, with
generally 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear from the Black Hills
vicinity northward. This will coincide with moderate diurnal
destabilization, particularly across interior/eastern Wyoming into
southeast Montana and parts of the western Dakotas. Scattered large
hail may occur with any sustained supercells, along with the
possibility of some severe wind gusts, particularly if
east-southeastward moving clusters can develop this evening. With
increased confidence in multiple supercells occurring this
afternoon/evening across northeast WY/southeast MT into western SD,
have introduced a Slight Risk mainly for large hail potential.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/23/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261154
SWODY1
SPC AC 261153

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be
possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern
Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and
across the central High Plains and much of Montana.

...Northern Plains...
Current water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough and
associated mid-level speed max over parts of UT. As this feature
tracks northeastward today, large-scale lift and subtle cooling
aloft will overspread parts of northeast WY and central/eastern MT. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and
moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered
high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. Storms that move
into western SD will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely
grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized
severe winds. Latest model guidance suggests some potential for
this activity to persist deep into the night and spread across
eastern ND and parts of northern MN. Damaging winds will remain the
main concern, along with some risk of hail and a tornado or two.

...Midwest into Mid-Atlantic Region...
A large cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of IA/IL. The associated outflow boundaries and clouds will
result in an effective baroclinic zone today from northern MO/IL
into southern Lower MI. Along and south of this boundary, hot/humid
conditions will lead to large CAPE values. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds. This regime will extend eastward into parts
of PA and the Chesapeake Bay area with a few strong afternoon
thunderstorms possible.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/26/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271139
SWODY1
SPC AC 271138

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great
Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of
the northern Plains, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and eastern
North Carolina.

...Northern MN This Morning...
A persistent bowing MCS is over northern MN headed toward the
Arrowhead region. These storms have produced locally damaging wind
gusts through much of the night, but have shown signs of weakening
on the north end of the bow during the past 1-2 hours. One intense
cells remains on the south end of the bow, headed toward the Hibbing
vicinity. This activity may continue to pose a risk of damaging
winds or hail for awhile this morning.

...Upper MS Valley into western Great Lakes...
A convectively aided shortwave trough is currently tracking across
ND. This feature will move into northern MN this afternoon with an
associated surface cold front sagging into central MN. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong heating ahead of the front will
result in a very unstable airmass this afternoon, with MLCAPE values
of 3000-4000 J/kg. A consensus of CAM solutions suggests the
development of a few discrete supercells along the front by mid/late
afternoon. These storms will be capable of very large hail and
perhaps a few tornadoes during the first couple of hours. After
that, upscale growth is likely with damaging winds becoming the main
concern as storms build southeastward across southern MN and into
central WI.

...Mid Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again today from
parts of PA/WV into VA/NC. Similar to previous days, mid-level
lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will
limit overall severe concerns. However, the strongest cells will be
capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds.

...MT...
Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of
central/eastern MT, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to
inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along a corridor from southwest into central MT by late
afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/27/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 291204
SWODY1
SPC AC 291203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the
central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa.
Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over
western areas.

...CO/NE/IA...
Morning water vapor loops show a large ridge over the central US,
with a plume of ample mid-level moisture moving northward across the
southern Rockies. Northeasterly surface winds across northeast CO
will help moisten/destabilize the region, leading to thunderstorms
off the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. These storms will
be in a region of moderate CAPE, but rather weak vertical shear and
winds aloft. Clusters of storms capable of small hail and gusty
winds will build eastward through the afternoon into a progressively
more moist/unstable airmass, and may eventually intensify into an
organized MCS across NE/western IA. This activity may persist well
into the night with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...WY/MT...
Multiple weak shortwave troughs are tracking northward across the
Great Basin today toward the northern Rockies. This will lead to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest MT
and northern WY. Surface dewpoints in the 50s along with strong
daytime heating will result in considerable CAPE, along with
sufficient westerly winds aloft for some convective organization.
Initial storms over the higher terrain will pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds. As the activity builds eastward into the plains, a
greater risk for large hail and severe winds will likely develop
through the evening.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 010601
SWODY1
SPC AC 010559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD
INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least
isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and
surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia.

...High Plains vicinity...
Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the
central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and
evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to
transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region,
and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg)
expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO.
Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level
flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt.

Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain,
and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to
move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible
initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time,
which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe
gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening.

A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO,
where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of
severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High
Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat
greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated
coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will
also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will
relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong
storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the
northern Rockies.

...Carolinas into Georgia...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the
eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a
cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the
Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift
will move southward ahead of the primary front.

Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW
(greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential
for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in
some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas
of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of
the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and
placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities
may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused
corridor of wind-damage potential.

...Northeast TX vicinity...
Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from
central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests
a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX,
associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be
quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed
for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related
enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection
later today.

..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 021954
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central
and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to
very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats.

...20z...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions
appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as
thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along
a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details).
These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to
suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will
undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours
with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show
disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more
predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will
be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where
the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher
wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 08/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and
into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight.
An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from
the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the
Great Basin and into KS.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range
this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional
storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone
draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High
Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25
to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of
the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing
by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W
parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support
supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the
convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary
hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist
for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level
southerly flow increases.

It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening
with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into
the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts
will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm
morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread.

...Northern High Plains...
Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is
forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this
afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern
MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be
potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph).

...Southeast...
Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and
ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm
development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL
Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse,
multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may
yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets
of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening.

...Northern Great Basin...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV
border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and
mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC
period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a
risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041258
SWODY1
SPC AC 041256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and
tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Early morning surface analysis shows upper 50s dewpoints in place
across eastern CO, western KS, and western NE, with slightly lower
dewpoints across the NE Panhandle. Moist, southerly low-level flow
will help increase dewpoints across the region throughout the day,
likely resulting in upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints during the
afternoon despite strong heating and boundary-layer mixing. This
should result in a strongly buoyant but minimally capped airmass
across the region by the late afternoon. Additionally, low-level
southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels,
resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an
overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing
mechanism for convective initiation is uncertain.

Upper ridging that currently extends from the Southwest into the
northern High Plains is expected to persist throughout the day, with
heights likely rising across the central High Plains. A shortwave
trough currently moving through the Great Basin is expected to move
within the northern periphery of this ridging, reaching the central
Rockies by this afternoon. Even so, given that heights are forecast
to rise across the central High Plains, the downstream influence of
this wave into the central High Plains will likely be minimal. This
overall lack of larger scale ascent leads to uncertainty regarding
storm coverage since more mesoscale factors, such as low-level
convergence along the lee troughing and weak low-level upslope flow,
will be the mechanisms for convective initiation. High-resolution
guidance offers varied storm coverage, with more recent HRRR runs
(i.e. 06-08Z) keeping the area largely free of storms versus earlier
runs (i.e. 00Z) which show scattered coverage. However, these drier
and less convective HRRR runs appear to be outliers compared to all
the other available guidance, and the general expectation is that
low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hill
vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation.

As mentioned previously, the overall environment supports supercells
capable of large to very large hail and strong gusts. Any supercells
that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend
towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt
low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these
clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where
damaging winds will be possible.

...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana...
Shortwave trough currently moving through southern OR is forecast to
continue northeastward through the northern Rockies today and
tonight, while becoming increasingly negatively tilted. Ascent
attendant to this wave will interact with a modest buoyant airmass
from central ID into central MT, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Initially more cellular storms are
expected across the higher terrain of central ID and western MT with
eventual cold pool amalgamation resulting in one or two
eastward/northeastward progressing clusters across central and
eastern MT. Some hail is possible with the more cellular storms, but
damaging gusts appear to be the greater severe risk. Sufficient
severe storm coverage is anticipated across central and eastern MT
to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated
thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast
CO/northeast NM. The thermodynamic environment here will be similar
to areas farther north, with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
40-50 kt of effective shear anticipated. A supercell mode is
expected initially with any storms that mature, with large hail,
damaging gusts, and a brief tornado possible. Storm maintenance into
the OK/TX Panhandles is possible, particularly given the
strengthening low-level jet.

...Central/Southeast Texas...
A decaying MCS continues to push southward/southeastward across
central TX at 35 kt. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible
with this system over the next hour or two, but warming cloud tops
and lowering echo tops suggest this system will continue to weaken.
Additional storm development is possible along the western portion
of the outflow, but low-level stability should mitigate updraft strength.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051244
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large
hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this
evening.

...Northern Plains...
Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this
morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the
low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse
rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning,
perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists
and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a
damaging gust or two.

Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in
an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD
eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and
sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave
trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level
convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should
both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this
afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for
supercells with the initial development, with large hail and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow
may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level
shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern
across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level
temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts.

One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern
periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based
as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends
and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern
ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible
within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger
gusts as well.

A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level
westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a
east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible
with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level
stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential
with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA,
and southwest MN.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081250
SWODY1
SPC AC 081248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight
across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Scattered
damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
An extensive MCS which produced numerous severe wind gusts across ND
earlier this morning has recently weakened across northern MN. While
occasional strong to locally damaging gusts may still occur in the
short term, this convection should continue weakening through the
rest of the morning as it moves into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. In the wake of this activity, an upper trough/low will
continue advancing eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains
towards the Upper Midwest through the period. At the surface, a weak
low over central SD this morning should develop northeastward to
northern MN by this evening, while a trailing cold front advances
southward across the northern/central High Plains.

Outflow from the morning convection may act as a pseudo warm front
and focus for renewed intense thunderstorm development later today
across parts of central/northern MN. The southern extent and
location of this boundary by this evening remains somewhat
uncertain. Even so, a rather moist and strongly to extremely
unstable airmass will be present east of the cold front and south of
the outflow boundary by late this afternoon across the upper MS
Valley. It still appears probable that additional surface-based
convection may develop by late afternoon/early evening across
eastern ND/northwest MN and vicinity as large-scale ascent preceding
the upper trough/low overspreads the warm sector.

While stronger flow aloft may tend to lag the surface cold front to
some extent, there should still be sufficient deep-layer shear to
support organized updrafts, including supercells with some large
hail threat. Given a large degree of boundary-parallel flow aloft, a
quick linear transition should occur this evening, with a greater
threat for severe/damaging winds. A narrow window for a couple of
tornadoes may exist across parts of MN, mainly this evening
along/near the residual outflow boundary where effective SRH may
become locally enhanced with a gradual strengthening of a southerly
low-level jet. Otherwise, the threat for damaging winds may continue
through tonight across parts of the upper MS Valley so long as any
MCS that develops can remain surface based. Given the potential
effects of the ongoing morning convection, confidence in a corridor
of more concentrated wind potential remains too low to include
greater severe probabilities with this update.

...High Plains...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along/north of a cold front
in the western Dakotas. This activity may pose an isolated hail
threat given ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear. The potential
for additional thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across the
central High Plains either along or behind the front in a low-level
upslope flow regime remains unclear. A conditional risk for
supercells with associated large hail threat is still apparent, but
overall coverage of intense convection may remain quite isolated.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, high-based convection
is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed
boundary layer. Deep-layer flow and related shear will generally
remain weak, but outflow-driven clusters may still be capable of
localized severe gusts.

...Northern Lower Michigan...
Similar to yesterday, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern Lower MI
and vicinity, along the northeast periphery of the substantial
reservoir of instability over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some
updraft organization, with a threat for occasional hail and damaging winds.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/08/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101236
SWODY1
SPC AC 101234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may
also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes.

...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of
eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV.
While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past
few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification
through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts
of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per
early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating
should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate
instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and
vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing
cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging
winds may occur if it develops and can persist.

Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are
occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced
outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an
isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to
diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually
weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as
daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports
moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak
across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still
occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should
result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the
central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep
mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again
overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This
will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in
tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over
the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak
mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO
moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts
is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with
associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado.

With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High
Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft,
and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for
severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this
evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across
parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and
northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing
this potential.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101957
SWODY1
SPC AC 101956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats.

...20z Update Front Range...
Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher
terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough
shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon.
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will
support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale
growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into
parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther
north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will
continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools
deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less
than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts
of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover
the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info.

..Lyons.. 08/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/

...CO/KS...
Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead
of this trough will aid in the development of scattered
thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon,
with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample
low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS
to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft
for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an
increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening.
A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant
outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK.

...MO/IL/WI...
A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast
IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit
overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds
could occur with the strongest cells.

...Southeast AZ...
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening
thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a
hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally
damaging wind gusts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131239
SWODY1
SPC AC 131238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across
parts of the northern/central Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic may
produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.

...Northern/Central Plains...
The primary upper trough will remain over western/central Canada
today, with quasi-zonal westerly mid-level flow continuing over much
of the northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A
subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough over parts of ID/western MT
this morning associated with ongoing weak convection is forecast to
advance eastward towards eastern MT/WY and the western Dakotas by
early this evening. Gradually warming low/mid-level temperatures and
a stout cap will likely hinder surface-based convective development
across much of the northern/central Plains until mid to late
afternoon at the earliest. Still, the modest large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching shortwave trough may be sufficient
in tandem with robust daytime heating and localized orographic
effects near the Black Hills to initiate thunderstorms.

Modest low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today
along/east of a surface lee trough. Initially high-based convection
across the northern/central High Plains could pose an isolated
threat for mainly severe gusts as it continues eastwards towards
greater low-level moisture and MLCAPE. The best potential for a more
focused corridor of severe winds and isolated large hail still
appears generally along/east-southeast of the Black Hills towards
central SD and perhaps north-central NE this evening into the early
overnight hours. Here, moderate instability and deep-layer shear
should overlap with a very well-mixed boundary layer, supporting a
severe wind threat with any cluster that can become established amid
a gradually strengthening low-level jet. Some uncertainty still
remains regarding this potential, however, as low/mid-level
temperatures (around 850-700 mb) are forecast to remain quite warm.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
The Northeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will experience the
glancing influence of upper troughing advancing eastward over
Ontario/Quebec today. A moist low-level airmass is already in place
ahead of a weak surface front extending southwestward from the Great
Lakes into the Midwest. Although lapse rates aloft will remain poor
through the afternoon, diurnal heating ahead of ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning should promote weak to locally moderate
instability from New England to parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Generally
modest mid-level flow (around 15-25 kt at 500 mb) should tend to
limit deep-layer shear given weak winds at low levels. Even so,
loosely organized clusters may still pose some threat for isolated
damaging winds this afternoon and early evening as convection
spreads eastward amid a boundary layer characterized by steepened
low-level lapse rates.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/13/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141236
SWODY1
SPC AC 141234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts
may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the
northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across parts of eastern SD this
morning are occurring in association with a low-amplitude shortwave
trough and related low-level warm advection. This activity has
remained sub-severe through much of the early morning hours, but it
could still pose an isolated hail threat in the short term given
weak MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear. It remains unclear
whether additional thunderstorm development will occur later this
afternoon across parts of southern MN and vicinity as the shortwave
trough continues eastward across the upper MS Valley. The airmass
across this area will gradually destabilize through the day, but
capping may tend to inhibit additional development. Still, a
conditional threat for isolated severe hail/wind exists if robust
thunderstorms can initiate, so have maintained the Marginal Risk
across southern MN for this possibility.

Thunderstorms across southern Manitoba this morning are expected to
generally remain along/north of the international border as they
continue eastward into western Ontario. A fairly strong
mid/upper-level trough will progress eastward today across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the southern fringe of this perturbation
glancing the northern Plains later today. Enhanced westerly
mid-level flow will overspread ND and northern MN late this
afternoon though tonight, while a surface cold front advances east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the period.
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the
front, with evapotranspiration also aiding surface dewpoints
potentially reaching into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s by early
evening. Ample daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft will aid
in the development of at least 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon.

The primary uncertainty regarding convective development along the
front is a capped 850-700 mb layer and weak forcing with southward
extent across the northern Plains, as the primary upper trough will
remain across Canada through the period. Even so, low-level
convergence along the front may become sufficient for cells to
initiate by early evening, mainly across parts of eastern ND into
northwest MN where MLCIN should be weakest. Any convection which can
be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large
hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some
potential for upscale growth into clusters along the front remains
apparent this evening into the early overnight hours, with greater
severe wind threat. However, inhibition will quickly increase with
eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer
occurs; so, the severe wind threat remains uncertain.

Finally, scattered high-based thunderstorms should occur this
afternoon and evening farther south across parts of the central High
Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater
instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may become
capable of producing isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally
severe hail. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest
deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with
southward extent.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/14/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181236
SWODY1
SPC AC 181235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in
parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail
and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern
Plains through tonight.

...IA/WI/IL...
A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this
morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for
considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of
eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm
into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE
values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft
for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current
activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today.
Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic
zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this
scenario.

...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS...
Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the
foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated
storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black
Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will
also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These
storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before
weakening.

...MO/AR...
Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and
much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures
reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep
low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest
storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 182000
SWODY1
SPC AC 181959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in
parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail
and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern
Plains through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the
passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization.
Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder
probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations.

..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/

...Mid MS Valley...
Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from
extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and
north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving
quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is
expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed
is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern
WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but
heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to
very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon.

Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it
impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest
the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across
southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow,
backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists.
Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential
for this area.

...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains...
Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the
foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated
storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black
Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest
mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging
covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough
for hail production with the initial development before these
high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with
time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant
threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening.

...MO/AR...
Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across
central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s
are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong
mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong
buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around
2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized
multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally
damaging wind gusts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281251
SWODY1
SPC AC 281249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated hail and severe wind threat,
are possible across parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas to
the Arklatex this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Colorado and the
adjacent High Plains.

...Southern Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex...
Showers/thunderstorms are prevalent this morning across
northern/eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks to the north-northeast of
a warm front. Within a belt of moderately strong northwesterly flow
aloft, a shortwave trough will continue to dig southeastward from
the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks by this evening. Related
dynamical response and the early day convection will shunt the front
southward later today, with ample heating/moderate destabilization
on the southwest flank of this boundary.

While mid-level temperatures are seasonally warm (-4C at 500 mb),
and lapse rates are not that steep, severe hail and damaging wind
gusts can be expected with the more robust convection as general intensification occurs by mid/late afternoon. A few initial
supercells may occur, and some tornado risk could also exist with
convection immediately along the boundary and east of the weak
surface front. Clustering/upscale-quasi-linear growth should occur
by early evening as storms progress southeastward and continue to
pose a damaging wind risk for a time this evening.

...Eastern Colorado and adjacent High Plains...
The large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably as
upper ridging will hold across the southern/central Rockies. While
mid-level flow is not that strong across Colorado, low-level upslope
flow is expected to contribute to scattered thunderstorm development
as boundary layer heats later this afternoon. This activity will
spread southeastward with an attendant risk for isolated severe hail
and gusty winds.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/28/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051211
SWODY1
SPC AC 051209

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado
or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys during
the late afternoon and evening.

...Upper OH to TN Valleys...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large gyre centered over Ontario and
cyclonic flow over much of eastern North America. A series of
mid-level disturbances/speed maxima will rotate through its base
during the Day-1 period, and there are two lead impulses over the
St. Lawrence Seaway and the Upper Great Lakes this morning. A
weaker impulse associated with convection early this morning over KS
will rapidly move east into the northern part of the OH Valley
through this evening and immediately ahead of a more notable
shortwave trough moving southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes.

A cold front oriented mostly north-south over the Great Lakes from a
surface low will push east during the day, while the trailing
southern portion of the boundary that is west-east oriented,
gradually pushes south and eventually overtakes a residual frontal segment.

Heating ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude impulse and
strengthening low-level convergence along the boundary will likely
yield scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in the
late afternoon to early evening. Much of the stronger mid-level
flow will remain spatially displaced from the warm sector in the
post-frontal airmass except over the Upper OH Valley. Moderate
buoyancy will favor strong to severe multicells and some supercells
(where shear is stronger). Isolated severe gusts (55-70 mph) seem
probable which will result in scattered wind damage accompanying the
stronger thunderstorm cores and line segments. Models differ on the
character of mixing and hodograph size over the southeast OH/WV
portion of the Slight Risk, but low-tornado potential may be
greatest here compared to farther south/southwest over the TN
Valley. The severe threat will diminish towards late evening given
the extensive overturning and lack of stronger low-level flow/shear
to sustain the threat overnight.

...North TX to Mid-South...
An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500-mb
temperatures of -10 to -12 C, will extend into north TX, well to the
south of a persistent vertically stacked cyclone over northern
Ontario. A copious amount of high cloud cover will tend to result
in high-level lapse rates becoming weaker during the period. Model
data implies a messy storm mode as isolated to locally scattered
storm coverage ensues during the late afternoon/evening. An
isolated wind/hail risk may accompany the stronger storms.

..Smith/Broyles.. 09/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 061230
SWODY1
SPC AC 061229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The
primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind
damage and a tornado or two.

...Northeast...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a
larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This
mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this
evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the
NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and
begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is
evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the
lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s
farther inland.

Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote
moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely
focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous
storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance
shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show
hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into
southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced
5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the
greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a
tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts
capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the
more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance
becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss
of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish.

...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA...
Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south
extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However,
sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few
bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the
more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts
capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the
early evening.

..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025

$$
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