ACUS01 KWNS 011258
SWODY1
SPC AC 011257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX....

...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs
across the CONUS, including one entering the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks
vicinity, another moving into NE, and another off the southern CA
coast. The lead wave is forecast to progress quickly northeastward
through the OH Valley and Great Lakes while losing amplitude under
the increasingly confluent flow aloft. At the same time, another
shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the northern High
Plains into the northern/central Plains, leading to some
amplification of the upper troughing across the north-central CONUS.

Recent surface analysis revealed several lows within a broad area of
low pressure across the central CONUS, one over west-central IL,
another near the SD/ND/MN border intersection, and a third over
north-central OK. A warm front extends eastward from the low over
west-central IL, while modest troughing extends between the Upper
Midwest low and the one over north-central OK.

The west-central IL low is expected to deepen throughout the day as
it moves northeastward ahead of its parent shortwave, with the
attendant warm front advancing northward as well. The northernmost
surface low is expected to progress slowly eastward as well, with
its associated surface troughing also drifting eastward. A more
stationary pattern is anticipated in the vicinity of the OK low
throughout much of the period.

...TN/OH Valleys into the Lower Great Lakes...
Low 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Lower OH and TN
Valley this morning. Continued northward/northeastward advection of
this low-level moisture is anticipated today as the surface low
progresses northeastward. This increased moisture coupled with
modest heating will help support moderate buoyancy across much of
the region by early afternoon. Broad large-scale ascent and surface
troughing are expected over the region amid this destabilization,
which is forecast to result in widespread thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening. The convective mode will likely be dominated
by linear structures, with one or more convective lines possible.
Primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, supported by moderate
southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere. Some hail is also
possible, particularly during cell mergers. The tornado risk will be
low but non-zero, as veered low-level flow limits the low-level shear.

...Lower MS Valley...
The airmass across the region is expected to quickly destabilize as
low-level moisture advects back into the region in the wake of the
convection currently moving through. Upper 60s dewpoints coupled
with modest heating will result in moderate to strong buoyancy and
no convective inhibition by the early afternoon. Even modest
low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection,
but any remnant outflow could also act as a focus for convective
initiation. Robust updrafts are expected with initial development,
with a quick trend towards outflow-dominant structures. Large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks.

...TX/OK Panhandles into much of OK and north TX...
Low-level moisture is expected to advect back northwestward into the
TX Panhandle throughout the day. Cold mid-level temperatures are
already in place (-16 deg C at 500 on the 12Z AMA sounding), so this
added low-level moisture coupled with glancing ascent will likely
result in late evening thunderstorm development. Most of the convection-allowing guidance is suggesting these storms will grow
upscale quickly into an MCS, with some of guidance suggesting it
could be quite and capable of producing significant wind gusts as it
moves eastward across the TX Panhandle and into OK.

Additionally, gradual increase in the low-level moisture beneath
cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse
rates will result in strong buoyancy across southern OK. Modest
warm-air advection could result in convective initiation across this
region amid an environment that supports very large hail.

Complex interaction is possible between the potential MCS and the
more cellular development ahead of it, but some severe threat
appears possible through early tomorrow morning.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 05/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening
from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An
isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also
across parts of the Great Basin.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England...
Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England,
including western/northern Virginia and parts of West
Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast
New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud
cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the
prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s
F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of
1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of
Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt
of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the
slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer
shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately
buoyant warm sector.

Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from
the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave
and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the
region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and
isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential.

Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the
afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of
damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms.

...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley...
Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are
ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama,
into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist
early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing
linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day
destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some
increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will
accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to
locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi.

...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the
northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent
and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will
generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but
moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could
support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts
and small to marginally severe hail.

...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region...
Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and
evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas.
Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization
across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around
500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer
shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability
materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for
isolated supercell/related hail potential.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 140550
SWODY1
SPC AC 140549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over
parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening,
and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight.
A few strong to severe storms may occur from parts of the southern
Appalachians to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level jet will eject into the central Plains on
Wednesday with a deepening surface low moving north through the
central Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, a
mid-level shortwave trough will advance east from the southern
Appalachians to the western Atlantic by the end of the period.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Low-level moisture is in place across the Plains this morning with
upper 50/low 60s dewpoints in Kansas and mid 60s dewpoints across
Oklahoma. However, this moisture is very shallow with a mean mixing
ratio around 11 g/kg from the OUN, LMN, and FWD 00Z RAOBs.
Therefore, expect this moisture to advect northward through the day
given the strengthening southerly flow associated with the deepening
cyclone. However, dewpoints across Nebraska and into the Dakotas
will likely remain in the upper 50s to low 60s given the upstream
moisture quality. Nonetheless, this will be sufficient for MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg near the NE/KS border with weaker instability
farther north.

Expect storm development in the vicinity of the surface low
Wednesday afternoon where surface convergence will be maximized.
Storms may quickly develop along the frontal zone from north-central
Nebraska and into the Dakotas. These storms will pose a threat for
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther south, additional
development is possible along the dryline/triple point across
southwest Nebraska. These storms may have the best potential to be
discrete longer and should be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of
shear in the region. This will also be the region with the greatest
2+ inch hail potential given the strong instability, moderate shear,
and steep lapse rates.

Low-level shear will increase after 00Z as the low-level jet
strengthens. However, by this time, expect inhibition to increase
substantially across the central Plains with storm mode becoming
more linear across northern Nebraska and into eastern South Dakota
which should limit the overall tornado threat.

...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic...
Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern
Appalachians to the Carolinas on Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave
trough overspreads the region, expect scattered thunderstorm
development. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm
organization including potential for transient supercell structures.
In addition, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are apparent. This
should support the potential for large hail and perhaps isolated
damaging wind gusts. Hail is expected to be the primary threat
across the region, but coverage is not expected to be high enough to
support a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk.

..Bentley.. 05/14/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211220
SWODY1
SPC AC 211218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OZARKS TO
MID-SOUTH AND FAR EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridors for severe storms are across parts of far
eastern North Carolina this afternoon, and the Ozarks into the
Mid-South this evening.

...Eastern NC and southern VA...
Morning surface analysis places a low over the Piedmont with a
reservoir of lower 70s dewpoints over the coastal plain of eastern
NC to the south of a residual frontal zone. A mid-level vorticity
maximum rotating through the base of an Upper Midwest larger-scale
trough, will move from the IL/IN vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic states
by early evening. A weakened surface cold front will push east
across the Carolinas during the day as the aforementioned low
develops east of the Outer Banks by early evening. Diurnal heating
today will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. A couple of supercells may
develop ahead of the cyclone, most likely across far eastern NC and
the Outer Banks. A tornado or two, isolated large hail, and
localized severe gusts are the expected hazards.

...Ozarks/Mid-South...
While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across south
TX/LA, a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone is expected during
the afternoon to evening near the KS/OK border east-southeast into
the Mid-South. Guidance is rather consistent in developing at least
elevated convection to the cool side of this zone by evening. This
will be coincident with an intensifying mid-level speed max.
Forecast soundings depict potentially very strong mid to upper-level
speed shear within the slightly north of west flow regime. Coupled
with steep mid-level lapse rates, this setup could yield a few
elevated supercells capable of large hail and perhaps wind.

...Central Plains...
A mid-level vorticity lobe initially over WY this morning will move east-southeast into the lower MO Valley by early evening within a west-northwest flow regime. Heating will result in very steep 0-3
km lapse rates by mid afternoon with several hundred J/kg SBCAPE.
Elongated hodographs will support quick-moving cells capable of an
isolated risk for severe gusts during the 20-01z period.

...Upper OH Valley...
A confined corridor of modest boundary-layer heating may occur
downstream of the primary surface cyclone drifting across northern
OH to Lake Erie. Coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures, weak surface-based buoyancy is expected by midday into the afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will not be strong given proximity to the mid-level
trough, but should be adequate for weak/transient mid-level
rotation. With numerous thunderstorms expected, small to marginally
severe hail and isolated damaging winds are anticipated. A brief
tornado is also possible with storms crossing the warm front before
convection weakens abruptly eastward.

...North FL and south GA...
Along the southeastward-moving cold front, moderate buoyancy is
expected ahead of the front. A veered low-level wind profile will
limit effective bulk shear, but scattered thunderstorms could yield
multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Isolated damaging
winds and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger
storms.

...Deep South TX...
Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that a very
unstable airmass will evolve by mid-late afternoon. While
large-scale signals for ascent are nebulous, convection will likely
develop in northeast Mexico over the higher terrain this afternoon.
Some of this activity may spread east across the lower Rio Grande
Valley this evening. Weak winds through the lower half of the
buoyancy profile will be a limiting factor, but isolated severe
hail/wind may accompany any isolated and mature storm.

..Smith/Marsh.. 05/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 290601
SWODY1
SPC AC 290559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/WEST TX INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST
GA INTO SC...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two will be
possible this afternoon and evening from the Texas-New Mexico border
eastward into central Texas. Storms with isolated to scattered wind
damage are possible later today across parts of the Southeast.
Isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado are possible
across the Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity into this evening.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern
CONUS is forecast to amplify through the period, as a vigorous
shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the Ozarks
towards the Mid-South. In advance of this shortwave, a
lower-amplitude midlevel trough will move from the lower MS Valley
into the Southeast and Carolinas. Later in the period, a surface low
will gradually deepen and move from the Ozarks into TN/KY, as a
trailing cold front moves southward across parts of the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley.

...Parts of west/central TX and eastern NM...
Strong heating is expected later today near and south of the cold
front from parts of eastern NM into west-central TX. Relatively rich
low-level moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE near/above 2500 J/kg by mid/late afternoon, with 35-45 kt of
effective shear sufficient for organized convection. Initial
supercell development will be possible by late afternoon near the
front across west-central TX, with increasing storm coverage and
clustering possible this evening. Large to very large hail and
localized severe gusts will be possible, along with some potential
for a tornado or two, especially in the vicinity of the surface
boundary. Any upscale growth could result in an increasing
severe-wind threat during the evening.

Farther east, guidance generally depicts more isolated coverage of
storms near the front from southern OK into north TX. However,
moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will
support a conditional risk of large hail and damaging wind with any
sustained storms in this region as well.

Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the
Raton Mesa vicinity southward across eastern NM, within a modestly
unstable but favorably sheared environment. The strongest storms
could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts
during the afternoon and evening.

...Southeast...
Extensive convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from
near the Gulf coast into parts of AL, in advance of the
mid/upper-level trough moving eastward across the region. Some
enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear associated with the trough
could support strong to locally severe storms during the morning.

Downstream of the morning convection and approaching trough, diurnal
heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate buoyancy by
afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg where
stronger heating occurs. Strong to locally severe storms may either
persist from ongoing morning convection, or initiate within the
weakly capped environment across south GA into SC. Low-level flow
will likely remain rather weak, but some strengthening of flow at
700 mb and above could support one or more loosely organized
clusters capable of isolated to scattered wind damage, and perhaps
isolated hail. A 15% wind area/Slight Risk has been included for
parts of GA/SC, where confidence is currently greatest in stronger pre-convective heating/destabilization and steepening of low-level
lapse rates.

...Ozarks into the Mid-South...
Some low-level moistening is expected through the day from parts of
northern AR/southern MO into the Mid-South, in association with the
approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough and developing weak
cyclone. Relatively modest heating and weak midlevel lapse rates may
tend to limit buoyancy, but ascent attendant to the approaching
shortwave trough may support scattered thunderstorm development
along/ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
Increasingly favorable wind profiles could support a few stronger
cells despite the modest instability, and at least a low probability
threat of damaging wind, hail, and a tornado could evolve by
evening. Greater probabilities may need to be considered for parts
of this region, if trends support greater destabilization than
currently expected.

..Dean/Thornton.. 05/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091157
SWODY1
SPC AC 091156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...SOUTHEAST...TN/OH
VALLEYS...AND OVER NORTHEAST NM...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable
today, particularly across parts of the Ohio Valley into
Appalachians, and east of the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern
Gulf Coast states.

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

...Southeast States...
An upper low is centered this morning over MN/WI, with broad
cyclonic flow across much of the eastern US. Several ongoing
clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across from east
TX into GA, with a risk of occasional gusty winds. A few hours of
sunshine may be sufficient for intensification of one or more of
these clusters, with damaging wind being the main concern.

...TN/OH Valleys...
A similar regime is present this morning along a cold front from
northwest OH into IL. Scattered strong thunderstorms may develop
anywhere along the front from central PA into southeast MO. Forcing
is weak so most storms will remain somewhat disorganized. However,
the strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...NM...
Ample low-level moisture has advected westward into
southern/east-central NM. This combined with strong daytime heating
will encourage thunderstorm development over the mountains by mid
afternoon. Storms will spread into the adjacent Plains by early
evening. Mid level winds will be only marginally favorable for a
few organized/rotating cells capable of hail and gusty winds.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211238
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible today from Michigan into the Lower Great Lakes
region. Isolated severe storms could also occur across the northern
High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

...Great Lakes...
Outflow and remnant convection from last night's severe MCS over the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest is currently moving over Upper MI
and northern MI, while the vorticity maximum is moving through far
northwestern Ontario. General expectation is for the vorticity
maximum to continue eastward through central Ontario and southern
Quebec, with some ascent associated with this system glancing the
Lower Great Lakes region tonight. The low-level jet is expected to
persist, helping to maintain an isolated severe potential with the
activity ongoing on the Upper Great Lakes region for the next few
hours. There is some chance the reintensification occurs along the
outflow later this morning across Lower MI where daytime heating
will contribute to strengthening buoyancy. A Slight Risk was
maintain for this scenario, although warm low/mid-level temperatures
and resultant capping cast doubt to its viability.

Farther east across the Lower Great Lakes region, a few late
afternoon storms are possible as the convection currently over Lower
MI reaches the region. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe
threat with these storm isolated. Additionally, as previously
mentioned, some ascent should glance the Lower Great Lakes vicinity
late tonight/early tomorrow. Forecast soundings depict moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and unidirectional wind profiles
supportive of a few strong to severe storms.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
A few elevated storms are currently ongoing across eastern MT,
within a region of strong large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. These isolated storms will likely persist this
morning, with a few additional storms possible later this afternoon. Instability will be modest, limited in the overall severe potential,
but strong shear will support organization within an updrafts than
can mature. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are the primary
severe risk.

...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
Surface low currently over central SD is expected to drift slowly
eastward throughout the day, with notable low-level moisture
advection across throughout the warm sector east of this low. This
will allow the airmass to recover from the overnight MCS while also contributing to a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by
this evening along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity
eastward through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level
convergence is anticipated in this region, but height rises are
anticipated within the large-scale environment. Additionally, warm
mid-level temperatures (i.e. 16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected,
capping the airmass to deep convection. Given these factors and the
lack of convection within any of the convection-allow guidance, the
Marginal Risk was removed from the majority of the region. The only
exception was from central NE into southeast SD and far southwest MN
where some late night elevated storms capable of hail are possible.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271211
SWODY1
SPC AC 271210

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large
hail and severe outflow winds will be possible. There will also be
a window of opportunity for tornadoes this evening across the
central Dakotas. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Lower Michigan.

...Northern Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance
moving east across the northern Rockies. This upper feature and an
associated belt of stronger flow will move eastward into the
northern Great Plains tonight. In the low levels, southerly flow
will contribute to moisture return northward into the Dakotas as a
low develops near the SD/WY border. Steep midlevel lapse rates of
8.5-9.5 C/km, and daytime heating will result in MLCAPE exceeding
4000 J/kg within the moisture plume where boundary-layer moisture is
highest.

A cap will likely inhibit storm development through the mid
afternoon before heating and the resultant erosion of convective
inhibition favors initially isolated storm development. Forecast
soundings show very steep low to mid-tropospheric lapse rates, large
to extreme buoyancy, and effective shear supporting organized
storms. The initial activity will likely be supercellular with an
attendant risk for large to giant hail with the stronger supercells.
A period of opportunity for an isolated tornado risk may realize
during the early evening, coincident with a slight intensification
of low-level shear, while maintaining a favorable storm mode. A
couple of clusters are forecast to evolve during the evening with
significant gusts (75-90 mph) possible in the more intense clusters.
A lingering risk for mainly wind and perhaps hail will gradually
wane towards the late evening and early overnight as this activity
gradually shifts east.

...Southeast Lower MI this afternoon/evening...
Not much change to the previous forecast scenario. A midlevel
shortwave trough and associated weak wave cyclone now over the Upper
MS Valley will continue eastward over the Upper Great Lakes through
this evening, while a trailing cold front crosses Lower MI. Daytime
heating and lower 70s deg F dewpoints will yield moderate buoyancy
by the early afternoon. Low-level ascent along the front will
support a broken band of storms by mid afternoon, and the storms
will spread eastward before weakening by late evening. Though
midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear will not be
strong, ~35 kt midlevel flow and steep low-level lapse rates suggest
the potential for scattered 55-70 mph gusts capable of wind damage
with the stronger storms and linear clusters.

...Appalachians into the Southeast this afternoon/evening...
Another afternoon/evening of widely scattered thunderstorms and
isolated downburst potential is expected across a broad area from
the Appalachians into the Southeast/FL. Local sea breeze
circulations, terrain circulations and residual outflow/differential
heating zones will help focus thunderstorm development. The more
intense storms and small-scale clusters will likely yield a risk for
45-65 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/27/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281201
SWODY1
SPC AC 281200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe
hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of
New York into Pennsylvania.

...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota...
Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the
northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and
become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period.
A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from
parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills
later this afternoon/evening.

Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will
likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The
resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in
renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where
differential heating/convergence will become focused.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be
maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing
from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph
curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a
supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be
possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during
the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the
risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat.

Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT
Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind
will be the primary concerns.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley...
Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near
Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward
to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In
agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the
northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH
Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud
cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate
destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the
upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially
developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be
multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during
the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level
flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and
perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south,
slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an
isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the
more intense water-loaded downdrafts.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 011249
SWODY1
SPC AC 011247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few
severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and
South Dakota.

...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast and Southeast...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper trough is moving
east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley and other minor
perturbations are located over the Mid South. The primary
disturbance will overspread the Appalachians by mid-late evening.
In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the southern Great
Lakes into the lower OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress
east/southeast during the period.

12 UTC raob data from the OH Valley and Mid South eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic region shows a very moist troposphere with limited
700-500 mb lapse rates (less than 5.5 deg C/km). Nonetheless,
diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate
buoyancy from portions of the Northeast southwestward through the
Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeast. Models continue to
indicate modest southwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic
states will contribute to adequate shear, supporting some
organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered
thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous
thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east
across PA/WV/VA/MD. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible
with the stronger downdrafts. Less organized but scattered to
numerous storms are forecast farther southwest into portions of the
southern Appalachians with a risk for damaging gusts with the
stronger storms. Strong-severe convection should spread off the
Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening.

...Black Hills into the central High Plains...
A weak mid-level disturbance is moving east across northern
WY/southern MT towards the SD/NE vicinity later today. A weak lee
trough will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development
this afternoon from near the Black Hills southward into northeast
CO. Forecast soundings show around 30-kt effective shear in the
presence of steep lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/kg).
Some of the recent MPAS guidance indicates a few stronger
thunderstorms will develop across western NE and perhaps into
western SD. A couple of supercells with an attendant large-hail
risk are possible, thereby prompting an increase in hail
probabilities this outlook update. Some severe risk may linger into
the mid-late evening coincident with a strengthening of a southerly
LLJ centered over west-central NE before this activity dissipates.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171237
SWODY1
SPC AC 171235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
northern New England this afternoon. Isolated/sporadic damaging
winds may also occur across a broad swath of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic to the southern High Plains. A confined
corridor of large hail and severe gusts appears possible from
north-central Montana to southwest North Dakota this evening.

...Northeast...
The Slight Risk has been maintained across this region with no
changes. A shortwave trough will move northeastward from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Ontario/Quebec border vicinity by this evening. A
broad swath of enhanced 850-700 mb west-southwesterly winds is
forecast from PA/NJ northward into New England. Further weakening of
already poor mid-level lapse rates is anticipated across parts of
southern NY into southern New England. This may tend to limit
convective coverage across the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New
England vicinity. But, farther north and in closer proximity to
ascent associated with the approaching mid-level shortwave trough,
scattered robust convection is anticipated this afternoon along the
Quebec border across northern New England. Sufficient instability
and deep-layer shear are forecast across this region to support a
mix of multicells and perhaps marginal supercells. Given the
enhanced low/mid-level flow, scattered damaging winds should be the
main threat with this activity as it moves generally
east-northeastward through the early evening, before eventually
weakening as it approaches the coast. Enough low-level hodograph enlargement/curvature may also be present to support some risk for a
tornado or two.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains...
Extensive convection is ongoing this morning across
south-central/southeast KS into MO. This activity should generally
remain sub-severe, but it will help reinforce a front that is
expected to gradually sag southward and eventually stall across the
mid MS Valley to southern Plains today. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the Appalachians along
this boundary later this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs.
Moderate to strong instability amid steepened low-level rates
along/south of the outflow/front should support sporadic wet
microbursts. Isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms in
the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of the southern
High Plains. But, modest deep-layer shear and warm temperatures
aloft across all these regions should temper the overall
intensity/coverage of severe convection. Isolated damaging winds may
also occur with thunderstorms that develop east of the central
Appalachians this afternoon, even though coverage should be somewhat less.

...Northern Plains...
A narrow corridor of supercell potential remains evident across
north-central MT to southwest ND, mainly this evening. A positively
tilted mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies
will progress eastward along the international border with MT/ND
today. Mid to late afternoon convective initiation should occur over
parts of southwest Alberta in association with this feature. A
confined plume of weak buoyancy ahead of this activity should
initially temper updraft intensity as it spreads east-southeastward
into north-central MT by late afternoon. But, favorably timed
strengthening of a 500-mb westerly jet over MT will aid in hodograph
elongation at mid/upper levels this evening. This could support a
long-lived supercell or two during the evening, impinging on the
nose of moderate instability that should be present across southeast
MT. Large hail should be the main threat with these supercells if
they can be maintained. An isolated hail/wind risk may persist along
the ND/SD border vicinity overnight.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/17/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181244
SWODY1
SPC AC 181243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa,
Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota this evening into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of Virginia and
North Carolina this afternoon.

...Virginia/North Carolina to the Mid-South...
A generally west-east oriented quasi-stationary front reinforced by
outflow from earlier convection should serve as a low-level forcing
mechanism for thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of
VA/NC westward to the Mid-South and vicinity. A seasonably moist
airmass will be present today along/south of this front, with
surface dewpoints generally ranging from the upper 60s in higher
elevations to mid 70s elsewhere. Even though mid-level lapse rates
are expected to remain rather modest, ample daytime heating of the
moist low-level airmass will contribute to sizable MLCAPE by early
to mid afternoon. With a subtropical anticyclone centered off the
Southeast Atlantic Coast and stronger flow aloft associated with
various mid-level perturbations expected to remain over the Great Lakes/Northeast, large-scale ascent in the vicinity of the surface
front will be nebulous at best.

Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop
along/near this boundary through the afternoon, while spreading
generally eastward this evening. With modest mid-level westerly flow
forecast, deep-layer shear appears marginal for thunderstorm
organization. The greatest threat for scattered damaging winds
should focus across parts of VA/NC this afternoon and early evening,
where semi-organized clusters and short line segments appear
possible given slightly stronger deep-layer shear. Otherwise,
isolated damaging winds may occur even with less organized
convection farther west towards parts of the TN Valley/Mid-South, as
steepened low-level lapse rates potentially support microbursts.
There does appear to be a gap in scattered convective coverage
across parts of MO and vicinity, where the Marginal Risk has been
removed with this update.

...South Dakota/Nebraska into Minnesota/Iowa...
Elevated convection across parts of SD may continue to pose an
isolated hail threat this morning, before it eventually weakens with
the gradual lessening of a southerly low-level jet. A belt of strong
westerly mid-level flow will remain in place over the northern tier
of the CONUS from MT eastward towards the Great Lakes. Gradual
low-level moistening is forecast through this evening ahead of a
weak front forecast to be in place over the eastern Dakotas into
western NE. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to moderate to strong MLCAPE across parts of
NE/southeast SD into IA. But, nebulous forcing for ascent and
residual capping should tend to suppress surface-based convective
development across these areas for much of the day. Occasional
severe hail may occur with mainly elevated convection to the north
of the front in MN.

A gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet this evening
(mainly after 00Z) should aid in convective initiation along/near
the front from central/northeast NE into southeast SD/southwest MN.
Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this region suggest ample
instability and strong deep-layer shear will be present to support
supercells with attendant large hail threat initially. Low-level
shear should also be strong enough for a tornado threat with these
supercells, although there may be a fairly narrow spatial/temporal
window for convection to remain discrete this evening. Upscale
growth into a bowing cluster should occur through mid to late
evening, with a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds as
this convection tracks into parts of IA overnight, before eventually
weakening early Saturday morning.

...Great Basin into Wyoming and Far Southern Montana...
Initially high-based convection should develop this afternoon across
parts of the Great Basin into WY as modest ascent associated with a weak/low-amplitude mid-level impulse spreads eastward across these
areas. While low-level moisture and deep-layer shear will remain
limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates amid a very well-mixed
boundary layer should support isolated severe gusts with any
thunderstorms that can be sustained amid weak instability. Somewhat
greater low-level moisture should be present this afternoon across
parts of southern MT into northern/eastern WY, generally along/east
of the Bighorn/Laramie Mountains. Isolated severe hail may occur
with marginal supercells given greater instability/shear forecast
across these areas.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/18/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191246
SWODY1
SPC AC 191245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible today across parts of the
Midwest/Great Lakes and southern Mid-Atlantic. Scattered large to
very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the
northern/central Plains during the late afternoon and evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A small thunderstorm cluster ongoing this morning across
southern/eastern IA should continue to track east-southeastward
along an instability gradient across parts of northern MO, IL, and
perhaps IN into at least the early afternoon. With sufficient
organization and evidence of a cold pool, this cluster may pose a
threat for strong to locally damaging winds. Reference Mesoscale
Discussion 1719 for more details. The potential for additional
strong to severe thunderstorms across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions remains somewhat unclear given rather nebulous/weak forcing
aloft. Stronger westerly mid-level flow associated with upper
troughing over eastern Canada should tend to remain mostly displaced
to the north of the surface warm sector. Still, daytime heating of a
moist low-level airmass will likely encourage the development of
moderate to locally strong instability by early to mid afternoon
away from convective influences.

Somewhat stronger flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should be
present this afternoon across Lower MI. A mix of multicells and
marginal supercells may spread eastward from ongoing activity across
WI, or develop separately over this area while posing a threat for
isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Farther south into the
Midwest/OH Valley, weaker deep-layer shear and the bulk of
convection-allowing model guidance suggests that multicell clusters
should be the main convective mode. One or more of these clusters
will probably persist from the ongoing activity this morning, or
develop this afternoon along its outflow. Scattered severe/damaging
winds will likely be the main threat as these thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon into early evening across much of
the OH Valley/Midwest. This convection should eventually weaken this
evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass across the Lower
Great Lakes and central Appalachians.

...Virginia/North Carolina...
The Mid-Atlantic region will once again reside between upper
troughing to the north over the Northeast/eastern Canada, and a
mid/upper-level anticyclone anchored over the Southeast. The primary
synoptic front remains draped generally east-west along/near the
MD/PA/DE border. A very moist low-level airmass remains in place to
the south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the
low to mid 70s. A similar convective scenario to yesterday is
forecast again today. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will
likely encourage moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by early
afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain
poor. Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow should enable
thunderstorms that initially develop over the Appalachians/Blue
Ridge to advance eastward towards the lower elevations/coastal
regions of VA/NC this afternoon and early evening. Scattered
damaging winds should be the main threat with loosely organized multicells/clusters. Isolated hail may occur with the stronger cores as well.

...Northern/Central Plains...
An upper trough/low is expected to persist today over western
Canada. On the southern periphery of this feature, a weak mid-level
shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern
Rockies/High Plains through this evening. Weaker mid-level westerly
flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the
surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to
eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist
this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with greater low-level
moisture present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Isolated
thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat
this morning. Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms
to develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central
Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east
along the lee trough.

As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly
unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should
strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase
with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer
shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be
possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance
indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across
eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central
NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt
of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. If
one or more clusters can develop from the initial supercells, then a
greater threat for severe gusts would be realized this evening with
eastward extent across the northern/central Plains. There is low
confidence in this scenario occurring, however.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/19/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251255
SWODY1
SPC AC 251253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across
much of North Dakota.

...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will
move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward
across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions
ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These
storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early
evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions
will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak
lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid
in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon
across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters
appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model
guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward.
However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity
will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally
damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will
hopefully help better focus this threat area.

...KS/MO...
A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a
convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of
the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening.
Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the
southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe
threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be
the main concern.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311238
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this
afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail
producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains.

...High Plains...
A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US,
with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal
moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of
afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells
will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain
before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast
soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical
shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient
for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and
far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south
of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to
moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of
the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with
locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern.

...ID/Western MT...
A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV
lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon
across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be
capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311953
SWODY1
SPC AC 311951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible this
afternoon and early evening across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other
severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains.

...20z Update...
The forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent convective trends. Low-end/5% risk
probabilities were expanded slightly across portions of the northern
Rockies where recent observed dewpoint depressions and short-range
forecast soundings show low-level thermodynamic environments
favorable for strong/severe downburst winds and GOES imagery shows
deepening convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See
the previous discussion below and MCDs #1853 and #1854 for
additional details.

..Moore.. 07/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/

...Mid Atlantic Region...
Midday visible-satellite imagery indicates a moist airmass via a
swelling cumulus field from the upper OH Valley eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic states and Long Island. Additional heating of an
extremely moist boundary layer (12 UTC raobs at IAD and WAL showing
17-18 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios), will result in
temperatures warming through the 80s deg F with 74-78 dewpoints to
the east of the Fall Line.

An upstream mid-level shortwave trough over WI/IL will continue to
progress eastward towards the region and promote the gradual
southward movement of a weak cold front. Despite weak mid-level
lapse rates, the aforementioned warming/destabilization through mid
afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms along/ahead of
the front. Forecast hodographs will be elongated due to 50-70 kt
upper-level flow, which will support storm organization in the form
of multicell clusters and possibly a few weak supercell structures.
Weak low-level flow and a deep/moisture-rich profile will facilitate water-loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores. Widely scattered
50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary severe
concern before much of this activity moves east of the coast by mid evening.

...High Plains...
No change from the previous forecast thinking. Weak shortwave
ridging will reside across the central Rockies/plains northward into
the northern High Plains. Surface observations and satellite data
depict a seasonably moist airmass abutted to the Front Range and
northward into the eastern WY. Heating over the higher terrain and
along a residual frontal zone will aid in scattered storm
development this afternoon. The strongest cells will pose some risk
of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading
onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this
region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient
supercell structures. Upscale growth into a linear cluster or two
may evolve (supported by recent HREF guidance), and this appears
most probable near the WY/CO/NE border during the early evening. A
gradual transition from primarily a hail risk to a threat favoring
severe gusts may occur as outflow becomes more pervasive as storm
coverage and outflow increases during the evening.

...ID/Western MT...
A mid-level trough over northern NV will move slowly northward
through tonight into the northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent
attendant to this upper feature coupled with orographic circulations
will likely result in scattered storms developing by mid to late
afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layers will
promote evaporative cooling and an isolated risk for severe gusts
(60-70 mph) with the stronger cores and outflow surges.

...AR/LA...
Scattered diurnally driven storms will likely evolve in the vicinity
of a weakness in the southern U.S. mid-level anticyclone. A very
moist boundary layer amid moderate buoyancy may result in a few
stronger water-loaded microbursts capable of 50-65 mph gusts and
pockets of wind damage.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091249
SWODY1
SPC AC 091248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple severe/damaging wind swaths should occur today centered on
parts of Iowa, northwest Illinois, Wisconsin, and the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. Large to very large hail will be possible
across parts of eastern Colorado and vicinity this afternoon and evening.

...Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest into the Missouri Valley...
A small but intense bowing cluster has produced numerous severe
gusts/damage reports (some 75+ mph) in a narrow corridor early this
morning across south-central NE to western IA. This convection
should continue east-northeastward across parts of central/northern
IA through the rest of the morning, with an enhanced southwesterly
low-level jet providing ample moist inflow. A very unstable airmass
remains in place ahead of a cold front across this area, with MUCAPE
around 3000-3500 J/kg. This large reservoir of buoyancy should
continue to support a severe/damaging wind threat with this cluster
into parts of central/northern IA for at least the next few hours.
See Mesoscale Discussion 1911 for more details on the short-term
severe threat associated with this bowing complex.

Additional thunderstorms have developed along/near the cold front
across a broader portion of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
It still appears probable that multiple swaths of severe/damaging
winds may occur through the afternoon and evening across parts of
these regions as the airmass ahead of these thunderstorms gradually destabilizes. With rich low-level moisture already in place, strong
to extreme instability should once again develop by this afternoon.
While stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will tend
to lag the cold front, they should still be sufficient to support
organized convection, mainly linear clusters. Some adjustments have
been made to the Slight Risk to account for the ongoing severe
thunderstorms in IA, as well as additional activity forecast to
occur through the afternoon and evening. The potential for
additional robust convective development tonight across parts of the
MO Valley remains unclear as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
once again. Regardless, have maintained severe probabilities across
southeast NE and vicinity for this possibility.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A cold front should become nearly stationary by this afternoon
across the south-central High Plains. A favorable low-level,
post-frontal regime for severe convection is expected to develop
across eastern CO by late afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear
will likely support scattered supercells capable of large to very
large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two
mainly this afternoon into the evening. Across the southern High
Plains, high-based convection may again develop across parts of
eastern NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. This activity could pose a
isolated threat for severe gusts given a very well-mixed boundary layer.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/09/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161958
SWODY1
SPC AC 161957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT OVER PART OF SD...AND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into
tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into the Midwest
and Great Lakes regions.

...20Z Update...
The prior forecast reasoning remains valid. Severe probabilities
were reduced in parts of northern/central Wisconsin where prior
convection has stabilized the boundary layer. Elsewhere, only minor
changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on
current observational trends. See the previous discussion as well as
MCDs 1965/1966 for additional information.

..Wendt.. 08/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025/

...Upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes
Region...
An expansive MCS continues to move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, with a well-defined MCV evident in radar imagery over the
central WI/MN border vicinity. This MCS has continued to gradually
weaken throughout the morning, but a few strong updrafts persist
along its southeastern periphery over central WI. This portion of
the MCS is on the far northeastern periphery of the plume of steeper
mid-level lapse rates that extends from the northern/central High
Plains across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This
plume is observable in the 12Z sounding from DVN and ILX, which
sampled 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.8 and 7.2 deg C per km,
respectively. Dewpoints downstream across southern WI, northern IL,
and northern IN are in the low 70s, with upper 60s dewpoints also
covering much of southern Lower MI. The combination of ample
low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in
strong to very strong buoyancy to the south of the MCS from the
MN/IA border into northern/central IL.

Given the lack of a well-defined surface boundary and negligible
large-scale ascent, additional thunderstorm development will be
associated with outflow from with the MCS, which results in greater-than-average uncertainty for the Day 1 period. Ample
moisture and buoyancy downstream of the leading edge of the MCS
suggests the greater severe potential this afternoon/evening will
likely be associated with redevelopment/reintensification of the
MCS. Additionally, even if reintensification does not occur along
the leading edge of the MCS this afternoon, most guidance suggests redevelopment does eventually occur this evening along the southern
periphery of the MCV circulation as it moves into northern/central
WI. Increased severe-wind probabilities (i.e. 15%) were introduced
with this outlook to cover both of these potential scenarios. A
small 15% hail probability was introduce to cover potential for
later evening storms atop the outflow as well.

Storms are possible into northern IN and the Lower MI this afternoon
and evening as well, but the lower buoyancy should temper the
overall coverage and magnitude in these areas.

...SD and Vicinity...
A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently moving
through western CO/western WY, and will continue northeastward into
eastern WY/western Dakotas by this evening. Similar to yesterday,
high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching shortwave
and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more
moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Upscale growth into
another nocturnal MCS is forecast by most guidance, with the MCS
tracking northeastward across western/central SD tonight. Strong to
severe gusts are possible with this potential MCS across much of western/central SD.

$$
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