ACUS01 KWNS 011258
SWODY1
SPC AC 011257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX....

...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs
across the CONUS, including one entering the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks
vicinity, another moving into NE, and another off the southern CA
coast. The lead wave is forecast to progress quickly northeastward
through the OH Valley and Great Lakes while losing amplitude under
the increasingly confluent flow aloft. At the same time, another
shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the northern High
Plains into the northern/central Plains, leading to some
amplification of the upper troughing across the north-central CONUS.

Recent surface analysis revealed several lows within a broad area of
low pressure across the central CONUS, one over west-central IL,
another near the SD/ND/MN border intersection, and a third over
north-central OK. A warm front extends eastward from the low over
west-central IL, while modest troughing extends between the Upper
Midwest low and the one over north-central OK.

The west-central IL low is expected to deepen throughout the day as
it moves northeastward ahead of its parent shortwave, with the
attendant warm front advancing northward as well. The northernmost
surface low is expected to progress slowly eastward as well, with
its associated surface troughing also drifting eastward. A more
stationary pattern is anticipated in the vicinity of the OK low
throughout much of the period.

...TN/OH Valleys into the Lower Great Lakes...
Low 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Lower OH and TN
Valley this morning. Continued northward/northeastward advection of
this low-level moisture is anticipated today as the surface low
progresses northeastward. This increased moisture coupled with
modest heating will help support moderate buoyancy across much of
the region by early afternoon. Broad large-scale ascent and surface
troughing are expected over the region amid this destabilization,
which is forecast to result in widespread thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening. The convective mode will likely be dominated
by linear structures, with one or more convective lines possible.
Primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, supported by moderate
southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere. Some hail is also
possible, particularly during cell mergers. The tornado risk will be
low but non-zero, as veered low-level flow limits the low-level shear.

...Lower MS Valley...
The airmass across the region is expected to quickly destabilize as
low-level moisture advects back into the region in the wake of the
convection currently moving through. Upper 60s dewpoints coupled
with modest heating will result in moderate to strong buoyancy and
no convective inhibition by the early afternoon. Even modest
low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection,
but any remnant outflow could also act as a focus for convective
initiation. Robust updrafts are expected with initial development,
with a quick trend towards outflow-dominant structures. Large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks.

...TX/OK Panhandles into much of OK and north TX...
Low-level moisture is expected to advect back northwestward into the
TX Panhandle throughout the day. Cold mid-level temperatures are
already in place (-16 deg C at 500 on the 12Z AMA sounding), so this
added low-level moisture coupled with glancing ascent will likely
result in late evening thunderstorm development. Most of the convection-allowing guidance is suggesting these storms will grow
upscale quickly into an MCS, with some of guidance suggesting it
could be quite and capable of producing significant wind gusts as it
moves eastward across the TX Panhandle and into OK.

Additionally, gradual increase in the low-level moisture beneath
cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse
rates will result in strong buoyancy across southern OK. Modest
warm-air advection could result in convective initiation across this
region amid an environment that supports very large hail.

Complex interaction is possible between the potential MCS and the
more cellular development ahead of it, but some severe threat
appears possible through early tomorrow morning.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 05/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening
from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An
isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also
across parts of the Great Basin.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England...
Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England,
including western/northern Virginia and parts of West
Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast
New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud
cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the
prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s
F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of
1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of
Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt
of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the
slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer
shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately
buoyant warm sector.

Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from
the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave
and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the
region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and
isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential.

Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the
afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of
damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms.

...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley...
Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are
ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama,
into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist
early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing
linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day
destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some
increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will
accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to
locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi.

...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the
northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent
and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will
generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but
moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could
support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts
and small to marginally severe hail.

...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region...
Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and
evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas.
Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization
across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around
500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer
shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability
materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for
isolated supercell/related hail potential.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 140550
SWODY1
SPC AC 140549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over
parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening,
and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight.
A few strong to severe storms may occur from parts of the southern
Appalachians to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level jet will eject into the central Plains on
Wednesday with a deepening surface low moving north through the
central Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, a
mid-level shortwave trough will advance east from the southern
Appalachians to the western Atlantic by the end of the period.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Low-level moisture is in place across the Plains this morning with
upper 50/low 60s dewpoints in Kansas and mid 60s dewpoints across
Oklahoma. However, this moisture is very shallow with a mean mixing
ratio around 11 g/kg from the OUN, LMN, and FWD 00Z RAOBs.
Therefore, expect this moisture to advect northward through the day
given the strengthening southerly flow associated with the deepening
cyclone. However, dewpoints across Nebraska and into the Dakotas
will likely remain in the upper 50s to low 60s given the upstream
moisture quality. Nonetheless, this will be sufficient for MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg near the NE/KS border with weaker instability
farther north.

Expect storm development in the vicinity of the surface low
Wednesday afternoon where surface convergence will be maximized.
Storms may quickly develop along the frontal zone from north-central
Nebraska and into the Dakotas. These storms will pose a threat for
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther south, additional
development is possible along the dryline/triple point across
southwest Nebraska. These storms may have the best potential to be
discrete longer and should be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of
shear in the region. This will also be the region with the greatest
2+ inch hail potential given the strong instability, moderate shear,
and steep lapse rates.

Low-level shear will increase after 00Z as the low-level jet
strengthens. However, by this time, expect inhibition to increase
substantially across the central Plains with storm mode becoming
more linear across northern Nebraska and into eastern South Dakota
which should limit the overall tornado threat.

...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic...
Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern
Appalachians to the Carolinas on Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave
trough overspreads the region, expect scattered thunderstorm
development. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm
organization including potential for transient supercell structures.
In addition, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are apparent. This
should support the potential for large hail and perhaps isolated
damaging wind gusts. Hail is expected to be the primary threat
across the region, but coverage is not expected to be high enough to
support a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk.

..Bentley.. 05/14/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211220
SWODY1
SPC AC 211218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OZARKS TO
MID-SOUTH AND FAR EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridors for severe storms are across parts of far
eastern North Carolina this afternoon, and the Ozarks into the
Mid-South this evening.

...Eastern NC and southern VA...
Morning surface analysis places a low over the Piedmont with a
reservoir of lower 70s dewpoints over the coastal plain of eastern
NC to the south of a residual frontal zone. A mid-level vorticity
maximum rotating through the base of an Upper Midwest larger-scale
trough, will move from the IL/IN vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic states
by early evening. A weakened surface cold front will push east
across the Carolinas during the day as the aforementioned low
develops east of the Outer Banks by early evening. Diurnal heating
today will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. A couple of supercells may
develop ahead of the cyclone, most likely across far eastern NC and
the Outer Banks. A tornado or two, isolated large hail, and
localized severe gusts are the expected hazards.

...Ozarks/Mid-South...
While rich boundary-layer moisture will remain confined across south
TX/LA, a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone is expected during
the afternoon to evening near the KS/OK border east-southeast into
the Mid-South. Guidance is rather consistent in developing at least
elevated convection to the cool side of this zone by evening. This
will be coincident with an intensifying mid-level speed max.
Forecast soundings depict potentially very strong mid to upper-level
speed shear within the slightly north of west flow regime. Coupled
with steep mid-level lapse rates, this setup could yield a few
elevated supercells capable of large hail and perhaps wind.

...Central Plains...
A mid-level vorticity lobe initially over WY this morning will move east-southeast into the lower MO Valley by early evening within a west-northwest flow regime. Heating will result in very steep 0-3
km lapse rates by mid afternoon with several hundred J/kg SBCAPE.
Elongated hodographs will support quick-moving cells capable of an
isolated risk for severe gusts during the 20-01z period.

...Upper OH Valley...
A confined corridor of modest boundary-layer heating may occur
downstream of the primary surface cyclone drifting across northern
OH to Lake Erie. Coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures, weak surface-based buoyancy is expected by midday into the afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will not be strong given proximity to the mid-level
trough, but should be adequate for weak/transient mid-level
rotation. With numerous thunderstorms expected, small to marginally
severe hail and isolated damaging winds are anticipated. A brief
tornado is also possible with storms crossing the warm front before
convection weakens abruptly eastward.

...North FL and south GA...
Along the southeastward-moving cold front, moderate buoyancy is
expected ahead of the front. A veered low-level wind profile will
limit effective bulk shear, but scattered thunderstorms could yield
multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Isolated damaging
winds and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger
storms.

...Deep South TX...
Not much change from previous forecast thinking in that a very
unstable airmass will evolve by mid-late afternoon. While
large-scale signals for ascent are nebulous, convection will likely
develop in northeast Mexico over the higher terrain this afternoon.
Some of this activity may spread east across the lower Rio Grande
Valley this evening. Weak winds through the lower half of the
buoyancy profile will be a limiting factor, but isolated severe
hail/wind may accompany any isolated and mature storm.

..Smith/Marsh.. 05/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 290601
SWODY1
SPC AC 290559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/WEST TX INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST
GA INTO SC...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two will be
possible this afternoon and evening from the Texas-New Mexico border
eastward into central Texas. Storms with isolated to scattered wind
damage are possible later today across parts of the Southeast.
Isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado are possible
across the Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity into this evening.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern
CONUS is forecast to amplify through the period, as a vigorous
shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the Ozarks
towards the Mid-South. In advance of this shortwave, a
lower-amplitude midlevel trough will move from the lower MS Valley
into the Southeast and Carolinas. Later in the period, a surface low
will gradually deepen and move from the Ozarks into TN/KY, as a
trailing cold front moves southward across parts of the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley.

...Parts of west/central TX and eastern NM...
Strong heating is expected later today near and south of the cold
front from parts of eastern NM into west-central TX. Relatively rich
low-level moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE near/above 2500 J/kg by mid/late afternoon, with 35-45 kt of
effective shear sufficient for organized convection. Initial
supercell development will be possible by late afternoon near the
front across west-central TX, with increasing storm coverage and
clustering possible this evening. Large to very large hail and
localized severe gusts will be possible, along with some potential
for a tornado or two, especially in the vicinity of the surface
boundary. Any upscale growth could result in an increasing
severe-wind threat during the evening.

Farther east, guidance generally depicts more isolated coverage of
storms near the front from southern OK into north TX. However,
moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will
support a conditional risk of large hail and damaging wind with any
sustained storms in this region as well.

Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the
Raton Mesa vicinity southward across eastern NM, within a modestly
unstable but favorably sheared environment. The strongest storms
could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts
during the afternoon and evening.

...Southeast...
Extensive convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from
near the Gulf coast into parts of AL, in advance of the
mid/upper-level trough moving eastward across the region. Some
enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear associated with the trough
could support strong to locally severe storms during the morning.

Downstream of the morning convection and approaching trough, diurnal
heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate buoyancy by
afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg where
stronger heating occurs. Strong to locally severe storms may either
persist from ongoing morning convection, or initiate within the
weakly capped environment across south GA into SC. Low-level flow
will likely remain rather weak, but some strengthening of flow at
700 mb and above could support one or more loosely organized
clusters capable of isolated to scattered wind damage, and perhaps
isolated hail. A 15% wind area/Slight Risk has been included for
parts of GA/SC, where confidence is currently greatest in stronger pre-convective heating/destabilization and steepening of low-level
lapse rates.

...Ozarks into the Mid-South...
Some low-level moistening is expected through the day from parts of
northern AR/southern MO into the Mid-South, in association with the
approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough and developing weak
cyclone. Relatively modest heating and weak midlevel lapse rates may
tend to limit buoyancy, but ascent attendant to the approaching
shortwave trough may support scattered thunderstorm development
along/ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
Increasingly favorable wind profiles could support a few stronger
cells despite the modest instability, and at least a low probability
threat of damaging wind, hail, and a tornado could evolve by
evening. Greater probabilities may need to be considered for parts
of this region, if trends support greater destabilization than
currently expected.

..Dean/Thornton.. 05/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091157
SWODY1
SPC AC 091156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...SOUTHEAST...TN/OH
VALLEYS...AND OVER NORTHEAST NM...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable
today, particularly across parts of the Ohio Valley into
Appalachians, and east of the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern
Gulf Coast states.

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

...Southeast States...
An upper low is centered this morning over MN/WI, with broad
cyclonic flow across much of the eastern US. Several ongoing
clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across from east
TX into GA, with a risk of occasional gusty winds. A few hours of
sunshine may be sufficient for intensification of one or more of
these clusters, with damaging wind being the main concern.

...TN/OH Valleys...
A similar regime is present this morning along a cold front from
northwest OH into IL. Scattered strong thunderstorms may develop
anywhere along the front from central PA into southeast MO. Forcing
is weak so most storms will remain somewhat disorganized. However,
the strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...NM...
Ample low-level moisture has advected westward into
southern/east-central NM. This combined with strong daytime heating
will encourage thunderstorm development over the mountains by mid
afternoon. Storms will spread into the adjacent Plains by early
evening. Mid level winds will be only marginally favorable for a
few organized/rotating cells capable of hail and gusty winds.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211238
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible today from Michigan into the Lower Great Lakes
region. Isolated severe storms could also occur across the northern
High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

...Great Lakes...
Outflow and remnant convection from last night's severe MCS over the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest is currently moving over Upper MI
and northern MI, while the vorticity maximum is moving through far
northwestern Ontario. General expectation is for the vorticity
maximum to continue eastward through central Ontario and southern
Quebec, with some ascent associated with this system glancing the
Lower Great Lakes region tonight. The low-level jet is expected to
persist, helping to maintain an isolated severe potential with the
activity ongoing on the Upper Great Lakes region for the next few
hours. There is some chance the reintensification occurs along the
outflow later this morning across Lower MI where daytime heating
will contribute to strengthening buoyancy. A Slight Risk was
maintain for this scenario, although warm low/mid-level temperatures
and resultant capping cast doubt to its viability.

Farther east across the Lower Great Lakes region, a few late
afternoon storms are possible as the convection currently over Lower
MI reaches the region. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe
threat with these storm isolated. Additionally, as previously
mentioned, some ascent should glance the Lower Great Lakes vicinity
late tonight/early tomorrow. Forecast soundings depict moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and unidirectional wind profiles
supportive of a few strong to severe storms.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
A few elevated storms are currently ongoing across eastern MT,
within a region of strong large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. These isolated storms will likely persist this
morning, with a few additional storms possible later this afternoon. Instability will be modest, limited in the overall severe potential,
but strong shear will support organization within an updrafts than
can mature. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are the primary
severe risk.

...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
Surface low currently over central SD is expected to drift slowly
eastward throughout the day, with notable low-level moisture
advection across throughout the warm sector east of this low. This
will allow the airmass to recover from the overnight MCS while also contributing to a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by
this evening along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity
eastward through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level
convergence is anticipated in this region, but height rises are
anticipated within the large-scale environment. Additionally, warm
mid-level temperatures (i.e. 16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected,
capping the airmass to deep convection. Given these factors and the
lack of convection within any of the convection-allow guidance, the
Marginal Risk was removed from the majority of the region. The only
exception was from central NE into southeast SD and far southwest MN
where some late night elevated storms capable of hail are possible.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271211
SWODY1
SPC AC 271210

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large
hail and severe outflow winds will be possible. There will also be
a window of opportunity for tornadoes this evening across the
central Dakotas. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Lower Michigan.

...Northern Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance
moving east across the northern Rockies. This upper feature and an
associated belt of stronger flow will move eastward into the
northern Great Plains tonight. In the low levels, southerly flow
will contribute to moisture return northward into the Dakotas as a
low develops near the SD/WY border. Steep midlevel lapse rates of
8.5-9.5 C/km, and daytime heating will result in MLCAPE exceeding
4000 J/kg within the moisture plume where boundary-layer moisture is
highest.

A cap will likely inhibit storm development through the mid
afternoon before heating and the resultant erosion of convective
inhibition favors initially isolated storm development. Forecast
soundings show very steep low to mid-tropospheric lapse rates, large
to extreme buoyancy, and effective shear supporting organized
storms. The initial activity will likely be supercellular with an
attendant risk for large to giant hail with the stronger supercells.
A period of opportunity for an isolated tornado risk may realize
during the early evening, coincident with a slight intensification
of low-level shear, while maintaining a favorable storm mode. A
couple of clusters are forecast to evolve during the evening with
significant gusts (75-90 mph) possible in the more intense clusters.
A lingering risk for mainly wind and perhaps hail will gradually
wane towards the late evening and early overnight as this activity
gradually shifts east.

...Southeast Lower MI this afternoon/evening...
Not much change to the previous forecast scenario. A midlevel
shortwave trough and associated weak wave cyclone now over the Upper
MS Valley will continue eastward over the Upper Great Lakes through
this evening, while a trailing cold front crosses Lower MI. Daytime
heating and lower 70s deg F dewpoints will yield moderate buoyancy
by the early afternoon. Low-level ascent along the front will
support a broken band of storms by mid afternoon, and the storms
will spread eastward before weakening by late evening. Though
midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer vertical shear will not be
strong, ~35 kt midlevel flow and steep low-level lapse rates suggest
the potential for scattered 55-70 mph gusts capable of wind damage
with the stronger storms and linear clusters.

...Appalachians into the Southeast this afternoon/evening...
Another afternoon/evening of widely scattered thunderstorms and
isolated downburst potential is expected across a broad area from
the Appalachians into the Southeast/FL. Local sea breeze
circulations, terrain circulations and residual outflow/differential
heating zones will help focus thunderstorm development. The more
intense storms and small-scale clusters will likely yield a risk for
45-65 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/27/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281201
SWODY1
SPC AC 281200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe
hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of
New York into Pennsylvania.

...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota...
Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the
northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and
become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period.
A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from
parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills
later this afternoon/evening.

Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will
likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The
resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in
renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where
differential heating/convergence will become focused.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be
maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing
from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph
curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a
supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be
possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during
the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the
risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat.

Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT
Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind
will be the primary concerns.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley...
Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near
Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward
to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In
agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the
northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH
Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud
cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate
destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the
upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially
developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be
multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during
the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level
flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and
perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south,
slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an
isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the
more intense water-loaded downdrafts.

..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025

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