ACUS01 KWNS 291238
SWODY1
SPC AC 291237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are
expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts
of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and
a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The
northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a
more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress
southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave
trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the
southern High Plains.

Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake
Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front
continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and
through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress
eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent
shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The
attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH
and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion
of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress,
with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective
outflow throughout the day.

Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the
eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the
southern Plains near the stalled boundary.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks
this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It
seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts
with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional
thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of
this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes.

Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will
be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell
and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also
accompany any persistent supercell structures.

...West TX into the Ozarks...
Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the
thunderstorms that developed along the front over
northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance
suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across
the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive
of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours.

Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both
along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and
along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west
TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level
convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the
primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm
proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to
significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential
may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX,
but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface
low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher
tornado probabilities.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021258
SWODY1
SPC AC 021257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of
central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley...
A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the
overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and
Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely
paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern
Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially
exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially
spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western
Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development
will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio
Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing
low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately
unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be
expected regionally this afternoon into evening.

Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable
drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data
after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with
moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak
heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the
potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail
possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards
Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also
increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this
evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South
Texas tonight.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 180542
SWODY1
SPC AC 180540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected
later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. The
potential for a few strong tornadoes exists across parts of Kansas
and Oklahoma.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Strong upper trough is digging southeast across the Great Basin
early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the
Four Corners region by 18z as 500mb speed max translates across AZ
into NM. By early evening, strongest mid-level flow is forecast to
extend across northeast NM into western KS. This evolution will
suppress the height field across the central High Plains such that
large-scale forcing will likely influence the dry line as far south
as I-40 near the TX/OK border.

While several 00z models struggle to develop convection along the
dry line, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the
southern High Plains. Zero-3km lapse rates will approach dry
adiabatic by late afternoon as surface temperatures soar through the
mid 90s across the eastern TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains. As
a result, deep thermals are expected and isolated thunderstorms
should develop as CINH will prove minimal.

Scattered convection is currently noted across northeast OK into
southeast KS/southwest MO. This activity will likely persist into
the early parts of the day1 period. Strongest low-level moisture
surge should be across western OK into extreme southwest KS as LLJ
will focus across this portion of the Plains early in the period.
While early-day convection may generate locally severe hail/wind,
the primary concern for severe will be with late-day convection.
Current thinking is strong heating along the dry line will prove
instrumental in thunderstorm development as convective temperatures
are breached, sometime after 22z. Primary corridor for initiation
should be across southwest KS into northwest OK. This activity will
be strongly sheared and supercells should mature quickly as they
move northeast toward/across the warm front draped downstream across
KS. Very large hail and tornadoes are certainly a concern with
surface-based convection, while hail is the primary concern with
elevated convection north of the warm front.

It's not entirely clear how much convection will develop along the
dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal
inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a
strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail.

Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a
secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO
into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO
into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to
boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong
low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it
spreads northeast during the overnight hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/18/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH
TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through
this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio
Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be
strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large
to isolated significant severe hail will be possible.

...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted,
large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas
southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several
thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of
convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS
Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a
gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley
eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight.

Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to
general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted
this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY
southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate
to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of
recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the
diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged
buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this
afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a
threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk
for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS
east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and
associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk
probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth
into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late
evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area.
Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to
account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting
through the evening.

...IL/IN...
Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper
speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates
will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into
the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid
MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south
of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells
and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe
and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this
activity diminishes during the evening.

..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening across
the southern Plains, especially within the Low Rolling Plains into
parts of North Texas. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards, with a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible.

...20Z Update...
The cluster of supercells that move through south-central Oklahoma
and North Texas earlier have diminished in intensity. In their wake
an outflow boundary has drifted southwestward into Northwest Texas
and parts of the Low Rolling Plains. Here, thunderstorms have
recently developed. Large buoyancy and moderate effective shear will
continue to support large/very large hail with the strongest storms.
Additional towering cumulus are developing in the South Plains along
the surface trough/dryline. This activity should intensify this
afternoon and tend to move east/southeast along the outflow
boundary. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Strong
mixing has been noted in central Texas where dewpoints have fallen
into the low 50s F in some places. As this air moves toward
convection farther north, storms may have some tendency to become
more outflow dominant. Should a more organized cluster/MCS develop,
wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025/

...Southern Plains including southern OK/northern Texas...
Initially elevated, scattered, upscale-growing storms have evolved
this morning across south-central Oklahoma. These storms will likely
persist south-southeastward along the baroclinic gradient,
potentially becoming increasingly surface based this afternoon.
Additional southwest-peripheral development is also anticipated
generally near the Red River as outflow/differential heating
interfaces with the synoptic boundary with an aggressively
destabilizing boundary layer, with upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE
plausible across far southwest Oklahoma into a broader part of
nearby north Texas.

Wind profiles will support supercells with the initial/renewed
development, with clusters otherwise persisting/evolving with the
ongoing Red River-vicinity storms and with anticipated additional
development later today across southwest Oklahoma into/across the
Low Rolling Plains of Texas. Very large hail is possible along with
damaging wind potential, and some tornado risk may exist as well,
although low-level shear/SRH will tend to remain modest overall.

...Southern/Eastern Florida...
Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a
large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough over the East. Deep westerly
flow favors an east coast sea breeze, and this should be where
convection focuses as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Localized severe gusts and large hail are the primary
threats with this diurnally maximized convection.

...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States...
Sufficient buoyancy coincident with moderately strong wind profiles
may support isolated severe low-topped storms this afternoon through
around sunset in vicinity of a secondary frontal zone/triple point.

...Central High Plains...
The eastward-migrating mid-level trough over the northern Rockies
will favor southeasterly low-level upslope flow into the central
High Plains. Modest moisture coupled with strong heating will yield
250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid-afternoon east of the Front Range. While
storms should remain relatively isolated, elongated straight-line
hodographs will support east-southeastward moving storms within an
environment featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km).
Isolated large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible.

...Northern Idaho/southwest Montana/northwest Wyoming...
Some stronger to locally severe low-topped storms may occur later
today within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of the
amplifying shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261238
SWODY1
SPC AC 261236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail
should occur with initial development in parts of west-central
Texas, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this afternoon/evening.

...Edwards Plateau to the ArkLaTex...
A large complex of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of central/east TX into the ArkLaTex. Some of this activity
may be elevated and occurring to the north of an outflow boundary
from prior convection. Still, the southern portion of the line will
have access to greater instability, and may continue to pose an
isolated threat for severe/damaging winds this morning if it can
remain surface based. In the wake of this activity, strong daytime
heating is anticipated across west-central TX/the Edwards Plateau as
a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the
southern/central Plains through this evening. The front/composite
outflow boundary from convection farther east should decelerate and
stall over this region by the early afternoon, with a very moist
low-level airmass in place to its south. Strong to locally extreme
instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with
steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy.

Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate
along/near the boundary across west-central TX by 18-21Z and quickly
become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain weak, mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with
height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This
will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development
this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in
diameter) appears likely. With time, clustering/upscale growth is
anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward. An
increasing threat for severe winds should develop as this mode
transition occurs across central TX and vicinity. Given increased
confidence in a focused corridor of very large hail and severe wind
potential this afternoon/evening, have introduced an Enhanced Risk
across parts of west-central TX with this update.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Extensive convective overturning occurred yesterday across much of
the lower MS Valley/Southeast. Outflow related to this convection
has settled well south into parts of northern/central LA and
southern MS/AL/GA, with a remnant MCV noted in northeast GA. The
potential for substantial destabilization to occur to the north of
this boundary (as some guidance suggests) remains questionable, as thunderstorms are still ongoing this morning across much of northern
LA into western MS. Still, the potential for at least weak
instability to develop remains apparent across parts of the central
Gulf Coast states. Isolated damaging winds should be the main threat
with any clusters that can either spread eastward from the ArkLaTex
or which develop separately this afternoon.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across
parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface
cold front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to
widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher
terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent
High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional severe hail
and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance
suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening
across eastern NM into northwest TX.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/26/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 301250
SWODY1
SPC AC 301249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms with wind damage, large hail,
and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast...
An Enhanced Risk for damaging thunderstorm winds has been introduced
with this outlook for portions of eastern GA, much of SC and
central/eastern NC.

A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward
from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this
shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move eastward
from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by evening. A trailing cold
front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and
Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening
cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be
tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover.

As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops
across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and near the cold front and move generally east. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests a predominantly linear mode across the Enhanced
Risk area, where confidence regarding greater destabilization is
highest. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe
hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing segments.

Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is
lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for
discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms
would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose
a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence
increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this
area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the
1630z Convective Outlook.

Along the Gulf Coast from southeast TX into the western FL
Panhandle, moderate/strong buoyancy and 25-30 kts of westerly shear
will be present. Here, scattered clusters of strong/severe storms
posing a risk for mainly damaging winds are expected to develop this
afternoon.

...Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet will
move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoon
and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, but
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
will support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and
evening. Localized damaging gusts and hail could accompany the
strongest storms.

...Eastern NM into Far West TX...
Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest boundary-layer
moisture across parts of NM and West TX. Moderate instability and 25
kt midlevel northwest flow could support a few strong storms capable
of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts this afternoon and evening.

..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/30/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 070548
SWODY1
SPC AC 070547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and
overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through
parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today
into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern
mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to
include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to
positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies,
ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a
notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the
Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest
vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of
reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest
through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday.

As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level
troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will
accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to
amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states,
where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels,
a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into
south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well,
probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive
convective outflow.

...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast...
Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to
the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous
thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south
central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of
seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the
presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity
eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the
presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly
mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears
probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts.

It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across
central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its
maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model
output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for
ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as
areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial
activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually
occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level
warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more
organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts.

...Southern Great Plains...
Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop
with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of
the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving
dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe
probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to
mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear.

...Northern Great Plains...
It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward
advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for
ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may
contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of
producing marginally severe hail and wind.

..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131241
SWODY1
SPC AC 131240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of Montana, extending southward across portions
of the central/southern High Plains. The greatest concentration of
severe thunderstorms should occur across central/eastern Montana,
where large to very large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a few
tornadoes are anticipated.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low will remain centered off the coast of British
Columbia today, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
troughs advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies. A seasonably moist low-level airmass is already in
place this morning across much of MT, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Daytime heating and modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate
instability by this afternoon, mainly from central MT eastward.
35-50 kt of west-southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the
shortwave troughs should support similar values of deep-layer shear,
with RAP forecast soundings showing long/straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels. Large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave
troughs will likely encourage robust convective development by early
afternoon (18-20Z), initially over the higher terrain of the
northern Rockies.

This activity is forecast to quickly become supercellular given
moderate to strong effective bulk shear. The favorable lapse rates
and hodographs at mid/upper levels should support a threat for
scattered large to isolated very large (2+ inch diameter) hail with
this initially cellular activity. By mid to late afternoon into
early evening, some clustering/upscale growth is anticipated across
eastern MT and vicinity as low-level southeasterly flow gradually
strengthens. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds, with
isolated gusts of 75+ mph, remains apparent across this area. The
tornado threat is less clear, as the boundary layer is forecast to
become rather well mixed this afternoon. Still, modestly increasing
low-level shear this evening may support some threat for a few tornadoes.

...Central/Southern High Plains into Western Arkansas...
Elevated convection ongoing this morning across western OK in a
modest low-level warm advection regime may pose a limited severe
threat until it diminishes later this morning. Otherwise, at least
scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain of
the central Rockies and subsequently spread eastward into the
adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Mid-level
west-southwesterly flow is generally expected to weaken with
southward extent across the central High Plains. But, sufficient
directional shear should still exist to support some updraft
organization, including the potential for a few supercells across
eastern WY/CO into western SD/NE/KS. Isolated large hail will be a
threat with any convection that can remain at least semi-discrete,
while severe winds may occur with one or more clusters that
eventually develop.

Convection is expected to become more isolated and less organized
with southward extent into the southern High Plains, but it may
still pose some hail/wind threat given sufficient instability and
steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Somewhat stronger northwesterly
mid-level flow should also be in place across OK into western AR on
the back side of an upper trough over the lower/mid MS Valley. While
forcing will remain weak/nebulous across this region, a
conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley...
A weak mid-level trough will advance slowly eastward from the Ozarks
to the lower MS and OH Valleys through the period. Around 25-35 kt
of southwesterly mid-level flow will be present over these regions
as filtered daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass
occurs today. Even though lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain
poor, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear should exist to
support an isolated threat for mainly damaging winds this afternoon
and early evening as low-level lapse rates steepen. A Marginal Risk
has been included with this update across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the OH Valley, where confidence in loosely
organized clusters occurring is greatest.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/13/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161256
SWODY1
SPC AC 161254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are forecast
today across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
With ongoing thunderstorms across parts of MN this morning,
confidence is lower than usual regarding severe potential and
convective evolution later today across MN into WI. A decayed MCS
over western MN this morning and a related MCV/surface low over ND
will continue to track northeastward across MN through the day. A
seasonably moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally
in the low to mid 60s, is present this morning across southern MN.
Some northward advance of this low-level moisture across parts of central/northern MN is anticipated through the afternoon in advance
of the MCV and a convectively reinforced front/outflow. Filtered
daytime heating of this airmass should result in at least moderate
instability developing in a narrow corridor, with robust convective
development increasingly likely by 20-22Z.

There is still a fairly high degree of uncertainty regarding how far
south intense thunderstorms will develop across MN/eastern SD this afternoon/evening. Somewhat greater confidence in severe
thunderstorms exists in closer proximity to the MCV across central
into northern MN. Have therefore expanded severe probabilities
northward a bit across this area. Initial development will likely be supercellular given around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear forecast,
with an associated threat for scattered large to very large hail
(isolated 2+ inches in diameter possible). Sufficient low-level
shear is also forecast with the MCV to support a threat for a few
tornadoes, especially along an effective warm front that should be
draped generally west to east across central/northern MN. By early
evening, some upscale growth/clustering may occur, with an increased
risk for severe/damaging winds into eastern MN/western WI and
vicinity. Convection should eventually weaken with eastward extent
across the Upper MS Valley tonight as it moves into a less unstable airmass.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Modest post frontal, low-level upslope flow will occur today across
parts of the northern Rockies/High Plains. Convective initiation
should initially occur along/near the higher terrain in southern MT
and northern/eastern WY by mid to late afternoon. A subtle mid-level
shortwave trough embedded within otherwise modestly enhanced
southwesterly flow should aid in this thunderstorm development.
Steep low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to be in place across
this region, with daytime heating contributing to moderate
instability. Strong deep-layer shear around 40-50 kt is expected,
with elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels
supporting ample speed shear. Isolated to widely scattered
supercells will likely pose a threat for large to very large hail as
they develop east-southeastward over the northern High Plains this
afternoon and early evening. If a cluster or two can develop this
evening, then severe wind gusts would be possible given steepened
low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer.

Additional robust thunderstorms will probably form this afternoon
along/near a convectively reinforced front that should be draped
generally northeast to southwest over NE, and separately across the
higher terrain of eastern WY/northern CO. Strong to locally extreme
instability is likely to develop along/south of this boundary with
strong diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass and the presence
of steep mid-level lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear should
also exist to support some updraft organization, with a mix of
supercells and multicell clusters possible. Initial development
should pose some threat for large to very large hail. Multiple
opportunities for clustering and swaths of severe/damaging winds
(isolated 75+ mph possible in western/central NE) remain apparent,
both with the convection that develops along the surface boundary in
NE, and with thunderstorms spreading east-southeastward from the northern/central High Plains. A small southward expansion to the
Enhanced Risk has been made based on latest guidance trends. But,
confidence remains low in exactly how convective clusters will
evolve this afternoon/evening.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/16/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 180529
SWODY1
SPC AC 180528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern
Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western
Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be
possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the
southern Plains.

...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes...

A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS
Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of
the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a
surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the
front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A
surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to
southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The
current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments.
Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is
possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as
linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is
possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into
northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be
maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding
this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at
this time.

...TX/OK to the Mid-South...

A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related
to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z
this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK
vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous,
but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates
will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential.

...Northern Plains...

Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing
west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear
for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are
indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed
boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and
strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate
destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak,
but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany
this activity.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181957
SWODY1
SPC AC 181955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from
parts of southeast Missouri northeastward to the southern Great
Lakes. Scattered to numerous damaging winds, isolated large hail,
and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds may also develop across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update Midwest and Great Lakes...
A well-developed QLCS with multiple embedded bows and recent
measured severe gusts will continue eastward across IN and southern
lower MI this afternoon before reaching western OH this evening.
Moderate buoyancy and enhanced upper-level shear will support
continued storm organization with damaging gusts likely. Embedded
mesovorticies will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes. The main
changes to the outlook where to trim the Enhanced behind the
advancing QLCS.

Farther west near the core of the MCV, several clusters of miniature
supercells have a history of producing tornadoes. This may continue
for a couple more hours as storms near the MCV remain in 100-200
J/kg of low-level buoyancy and strong ambient vorticity. The
eastward extent of this threat is unclear as some overturning behind
the expanding QLCS will likely reduce the threat closer to the IN
border. Additional scattered storms across western MO behind the MCV
may also pose an isolated risk for damaging gusts and small hail
before weakening after dark.

...lower OH Valley...
Across far southeastern MO southern IL and western KY, additional
storm development will continue this afternoon and evening.
Displaced from the enhanced mid-level flow south of the MCV, a mixed
storm mode of supercells and line segments is expected. Large
buoyancy and the tendency for upscale growth suggests damaging winds
are likely. Low-level shear from the VWX/PAH VAD is maximized along
the low-level confluence axis which could also support a couple
tornadoes with the more discrete cells.

...Southern Plains...
A modified outflow boundary may serve as a focus for scattered storm development from the TX Panhandle to southern OK this
afternoon/evening. 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and ~30 kt of deep-layer
flow will support organized clusters or transient supercells with a
risk for hail and damaging gusts. Have expanded the Slight Risk into southwestern OK where storms appear most likely to develop. See
MCD#1350 for additional short-term information.

..Lyons.. 06/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025/

...Midwest...
A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over western MO,
tracking rapidly eastward. At the surface, a low is centered over
northeast MO, with a very moist/unstable air mass in place across
much of IL/IN. As large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening
wind fields overspread the unstable warm sector, supercell
thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop. All severe hazards,
including a few tornadoes, appear possible through the afternoon as
storms track rapidly northeastward across IL into central/northern
IN. Refer to MCD #1345 for further details. Congealing outflow may
eventually lead to a greater damaging wind threat as storms spread
into lower MI and northern OH.

To the southeast of this early thunderstorm scenario, another zone
of convective initiation is expected from southeast MO into parts of KY/southern IN. These storms are more likely to grow upscale by
early evening, with a risk of damaging winds spreading into southern
OH and central KY. Have expanded the ENH slightly eastward to
better cover this area.

...Mid Atlantic...
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and strong
heating occurring over northern/central VA, where a hot/humid
airmass is present. Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the
terrain this afternoon and spread eastward into the DelMarVa region.
Sufficient flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
a risk of strong storms capable wind damage. Isolated strong storms
may also affect south-central VA and northern NC later this
afternoon as well. Refer to MCD #1344 for further details.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 201256
SWODY1
SPC AC 201254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight from far
eastern Montana eastward across the northern Plains and into the
upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, winds greater than 75 mph, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will all be possible.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms have persisted throughout much of the
night into early this morning across central/southern MN, much of IA
and central WI. This activity was supported by a persistent and
moderately strong low-level jet. Expectation is for this cluster to
persist for the next few hours while gradually losing strength amid
a weakening low-level jet.

A very moist airmass exists to the west of this cluster across the
Great Plains. Recent surface analysis places mid 60s dewpoints
through eastern NE, with low 60s reaching into south-central ND.
Surface analysis also places a low near the central SD/NE border
vicinity, with a warm front arcing southeastward from this low
across northeastern NE and western IA before becoming oriented more north-to-south over western MO. Expectation throughout the day is
for this warm front to become better defined as the current surface
low fills and another develops over western SD. This evolution will
be supported as the shortwave trough currently located over the
Great Basin progresses quickly northeastward towards the northern Plains.

By the mid to late afternoon, a deep surface low will likely be over
western SD with a sharp warm front extending eastward from the low
roughly along the ND/SD border through central MN. Upper 60s to low
70s dewpoints are anticipated along this frontal zone by the late
afternoon, with surface temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
These surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will
result in strong to extreme buoyancy, with HREF mean SBCAPE ranging
from 2000 J/kg across western ND to over 4500 J/kg from northeastern
SD into central MN. Thunderstorm development is expected across
eastern MT as the approaching shortwave trough interacts with this
buoyant airmass during the late afternoon. Additionally, surface
convergence could lead to thunderstorm development along the front
farther east from ND into northern MN around the same time. Given
the environment, storms in both of these areas should quickly become
severe, with large to very large hail and tornadoes as the primary
risk. The storms over eastern MT will likely grow upscale into an
organized convective line, although their is still uncertainty
regarding how quickly this occurs. Environmental conditions support
the development of a forward-progressing convective line capable of
strong to severe wind gusts. Some gust over 75 mph are possible. The
potential for line-embedded tornadoes exists as well. The threat for
damaging gusts with this line should continue into Upper Great Lakes
region early Saturday morning.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible across the region
amid increasing mid-level moisture and glancing ascent from a
shortwave trough farther north. A few strong gusts are possible as
these storms move into the lower elevations this evening.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/20/2025

$$
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