MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 030027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030026=20
MIZ000-030230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 030026Z - 030230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage across portions
of Lower Michigan during the next few hours. The primary concern
would be isolated severe hail, though locally damaging gusts cannot
be entirely ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The latest VWP data from DTX/GRR shows a strengthening
low-level jet and associated warm advection overspreading Lower MI
-- to the north of an east/west-oriented warm front across northern
IN/OH. This will favor an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
next few hours. The DTX 00Z soundings sampled an environment
marginally supportive of elevated supercell structures embedded
within increasing stratiform rain (around 55 kt of effective shear).
However, marginal elevated buoyancy (880 J/kg MUCAPE) may limit
updraft intensity to an extent. Nevertheless, the risk of isolated
severe hail (around 1 inch) should increase during the next few
hours, and locally damaging winds cannot be entirely ruled out with
any established supercells -- especially farther south closer to the
warm front.

..Weinman/Hart.. 04/03/2025

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41818567 41888640 42298652 42818638 43448545 43948373
44058285 43808250 42628242 42088289 41818352 41818567=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 030046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030045=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-030245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Indiana into western and
central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 030045Z - 030245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase across eastern
Indiana into western and central Ohio into the overnight hours.
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible. A
Tornado Watch will be issued within the hour (by 0030Z).

DISCUSSION...Along/south of an east/west-oriented warm front
extending across northern IN/OH, an expansive warm/moist sector has
developed (upper 50 to lower 60s dewpoints). Over the next few
hours, a 70-80-kt low-level jet (and associated warm advection) will
overspread the warm sector, promoting a rapid increase in
surface-based thunderstorm development into the overnight hours. The
00Z ILN sounding sampled fairly steep deep-layer lapse rates and
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, along with 40 kt of effective shear and a
large clockwise-curved hodograph (around 350 m2/s2 effective SRH).
As storms overspread this environment, they should quickly intensify
into a mix of supercells and organized bowing line segments --
capable of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A Tornado
Watch will be issued for parts of the area within the hour (by
0030Z).

..Weinman/Hart.. 04/03/2025

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 39208596 40238574 40928480 41508368 41478276 41228193
40768165 39918200 38908318 38488417 38508488 38838586
39208596=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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