MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 021533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021533
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-021730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Texas into ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021533Z - 021730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including very-large hail and a strong
tornado or two, are possible this afternoon.
Convective/observational trends will continue to be monitored for a
possible watch this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently initiated along a pre-frontal
confluence zone in Northeast Texas. Based on the observed 12Z
Shreveport, LA sounding as well as the character of boundary layer
clouds on visible satellite, there is still inhibition left to
overcome this morning. That said, objective mesoanalysis shows more
minimal amounts of MLCIN remaining right along the confluence zone.
Activity may initially struggle to intensify until greater surface
heating occurs through the day. Strong effective shear is in place,
though it is largely parallel to confluence zone and cold front that
lags to the northwest. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and steep mid-level
lapse rates will eventually support rapid storm intensification. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts would be possible. The
tornado threat will depend on the overall storm mode, which could
lean linear, but strong low-level shear apparent on regional VAD
data and a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) would
favor potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Timing
of storm intensification is uncertain given the inhibition and
overall lack of a stronger/focused forcing mechanism.
Convective/observational trends will be monitored for a possible
watch this afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32249665 32439669 32859661 33189648 33649578 34049486
33969378 33519328 32919351 32179531 32039651 32249665

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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