MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 021449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021448
INZ000-ILZ000-021645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Portions of central Illinois into far western Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021448Z - 021645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Currently elevated storms in central Illinois will move
eastward. Marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds are
possible. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated storms are moving eastward in
west-central Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates (observed on the
12Z ILX sounding), strong shear, and strong moisture return will
allow occasionally intensification of this activity. Marginally
severe hail as well as isolated damaging winds are possible with the
strongest storms.

Muted surface heating is occurring ahead of and south of this
activity through a thick cirrus canopy. Moisture return is also
pushing dewpoints into the low 60s F as far north as Springfield,
IL. Through time, the southern fringe of this activity may become
surface based and pose a greater severe risk. At least in the short
term, however, watch is not expected.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 39739090 40619040 41048987 41278913 41528743 41278675
40298667 39948730 39369071 39739090

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

ACUS11 KWNS 201235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201235
INZ000-ILZ000-201430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...Portions of far east-central IL into central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201235Z - 201430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small complex of thunderstorms may pose a gradually
increasing threat for damaging winds over the next few hours. Watch
issuance is possible later this morning if this activity can
intensify.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of
central IL, aided by modest west-southwesterly low-level warm
advection and a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation. This
convection should continue to track generally east-southeastward
this morning across parts of central IN along an instability
gradient evident in latest mesoanalysis. While low/mid-level flow is
not overly strong, recent VWPs from KILX/KIND do show some
strengthening with height through mid levels. Resultant 25-30 kt of
effective bulk shear should continue to support some updraft
organization, with a recent supercell structure noted with a
thunderstorm near the IL/IN border. If a small bowing cluster can
become established as some recent high-resolution guidance suggests,
then a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds may be
realized across parts of central IN later this morning as the
boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating.
While not immediately likely, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may
eventually be needed if the ongoing activity can intensify.

..Gleason.. 07/20/2025

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40298835 40788789 40538657 40198532 39768532 39428551
39398622 39488703 39878799 40298835

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

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