Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Areas affected...northeast OK into extreme southwest MO/northwest AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...96...
Valid 021157Z - 021400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95, 96 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado potential may be maximized
across northeast Oklahoma into extreme southwest Missouri/northwest
Arkansas over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shows some propensity for
linear convection to become more supercellular. This activity is
moving across the max STP corridor (effective layer STP around 5-7)
amid strong vertical shear and moderate instability. While some
rotation has been occurring, and even a brief TDS was noted over
Tulsa and Rogers Counties in northeast OK, capping and storm motion
parallel to the surface front is likely limiting the longevity of stronger/better organized cells within the broader line of
convection. Nevertheless, a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts and
isolated large hail remain possible this morning.