ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater
coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern
Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south
into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the
western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at
500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later
in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone
will intensify through the day across the central High Plains,
before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday
night.

Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south
TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in
response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The
magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat
uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation
along/east of the dryline through early evening.

Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will
remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the
region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but
increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a
threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection
spreads east-northeastward into the early evening.

Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts
of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly
favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F
dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and
deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering
CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon,
and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in
uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early
evening.

Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose
an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the
evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and
low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The
Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any
increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate
one or more categorical upgrades across this area.

There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening
into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO.
A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this
region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across
KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but
moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear
will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts.
Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery
of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a
tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong
tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is
greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable
environment.

Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the
cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional
environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency
for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will
be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist
through the end of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 03/31/2025

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