MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 302221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302220
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Mid Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 72...

Valid 302220Z - 310015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across the mid Mississippi
Valley through early to mid evening. Very large hail, severe wind
gusts and tornadoes will be possible. Weather watch issuance will
eventually be needed to the east of the current watches over parts
of central Kentucky and western Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Paducah shows
several supercells ongoing along a corridor from far northern
Arkansas northeastward into southern Illinois. These severe storms
are located to the west of an axis of moderate instability where the
RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition,
the Paducah WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 55 knots with
pronounced directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear
profile will be favorable for severe storms, and continued supercell development. The steepest mid-level lapse rates are located over far
southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas, where supercells could
produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Over the next
couple of hours, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will increase in
strength over western Tennessee and western Kentucky. This will make
low-level shear increasingly favorable for tornadoes, especially as
the supercells interact with the low-level jet. Eventually, a nearly
continuous line of storms will become organized into a linear MCS.
As this line moves eastward into areas near and to the east of the
Mississippi River, the wind-damage potential is expected to increase
and wind gusts above 70 mph will become likely along and just ahead
of the more intense parts of the line.

..Broyles.. 03/30/2025

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 34999080 35109139 35439175 35859179 36429157 37199062
38348831 38568739 38528603 38358532 38098495 37758493
37418511 36838590 35798807 35248939 35059028 34999080

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

$$
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