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  • Severe Threat MO/IL

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Sun Mar 30 17:18:00 2025
    Tornado on the ground near Poplar Bluff.

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

    ACUS11 KWNS 301928
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301927
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0304
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Far east-central Missouri...parts of southern Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 70...

    Valid 301927Z - 302100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells moving into southern Illinois will pose a
    threat for tornadoes (possibly strong) and large to very-large hail.

    DISCUSSION...Storms in and moving into southern Illinois have so far
    remained discrete. Regional VAD data suggest that this region
    remains favorable for low-level rotation in supercells. As long as
    storms remain discrete, which is not certain given the cold front
    moving southeastward, there will be a threat for a tornado (possibly
    strong) and large to very-large hail.

    ..Wendt.. 03/30/2025

    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37799093 37989090 38159077 38539030 38858953 39098825
    39058738 38738717 38448731 38138776 37938884 37719010
    37659072 37669085 37799093

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)
  • From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Fri Apr 4 18:30:00 2025
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

    ACUS11 KWNS 042229
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042228
    ILZ000-MOZ000-050000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0398
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

    Areas affected...parts of southern Missouri and southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

    Valid 042228Z - 050000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms north of the warm front may produce hail and
    perhaps some damaging gusts this evening, and a watch has been
    issued.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing to the north of a warm
    front lifting slowly northward across parts of northern Arkansas,
    and a watch has been issued in this area. ACARS profiles from STL
    show a strong surface stable layer north of the front that has been
    getting shallower over time as it is eroded by a strong
    south-southwesterly low-level jet. Above the surface stable layer,
    ample buoyancy for hail production along with strong deep-layer
    shear may support a hail risk. Additionally, with the stable layer
    eroding with time, some downdrafts may be able to penetrate to the
    surface to produce damaging gusts, given the strong flow aloft.
    However, poor lapse rates aloft and messy storm modes may limit both
    the hail threat due to higher freezing levels and weaker updrafts
    and the wind threat due to weaker downdrafts.

    ..Supinie.. 04/04/2025

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37049353 37389309 37859247 38129074 38388952 38448847
    38318807 37938826 37379020 36819201 36699340 37049353

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)