ACUS02 KWNS 030552
SWODY2
SPC AC 030550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments
into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident
among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale
pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America.
Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the
Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains
through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night,
accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis.

Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and
deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through
northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the
southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower
Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more
modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the
outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of
the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge
shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying
large-scale mid/upper troughing.

A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the
western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across
eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting
eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In
response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models
suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will
probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late
Tuesday night.

Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially
extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through
southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture
return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output
still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while
developing eastward through the day.

Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated
and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale
ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to
support extensive convective development across the interior U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least
a conditional risk for severe storms.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone
across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary
initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this
period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the
southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it
contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave
perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions
may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm
cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells.

Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may
include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer
on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi
during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for
supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the
strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the
convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential
remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster
developing along/above a maturing cold pool

Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface
thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the
large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating
factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential,
particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
eastern Gulf Coast states.

..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind
gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the
eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe
storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also
from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across
the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with
central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from
central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into
southwestern Quebec.

While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the
cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may
only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or
less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger
ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is
expected across a broad area.

...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL...
A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will
support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the
day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the
Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will
support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these
storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2)
will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be
possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained.

Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from
eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before
convection moves offshore.

...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic...
Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling
and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the
Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While
diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain
relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of
organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or
organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly
a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this
region, especially during the afternoon and early evening.

..Dean.. 03/04/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300609
SWODY2
SPC AC 300607

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread
damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of
the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and
eastern Gulf Coast area...

An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states
overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to
progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the
day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight.

Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by
ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf
Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing
front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the
mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to
evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This
will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as
it advances eastward.

Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of
the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern
portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will
likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe
risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger
convection, including linear bands near the front with
local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the
boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied
by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given
ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer.

Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving
offshore overnight.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast
Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central
Gulf Coast region.

...Synopsis...
The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by
extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one
significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the
lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a
lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep
surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing
cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England
into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...

While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution
on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized
storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL,
potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the
southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream
buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain
potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of
GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to
support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and
also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat,
any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail.

The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold
front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the
wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the
severe potential with any second round of convection in this region.

Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a
moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early
afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward,
with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of
damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in
low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which
could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm
initiation and maturation.

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast...

While instability will generally weaken with northward extent,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the
front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England.
Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern
periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for
damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest
storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front
moves offshore.

..Dean.. 03/30/2025

$$
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