991
AXNT20 KNHC 141053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Widespread fresh E trade winds and rough
seas will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern
Caribbean through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient
prevails between low pressure over northwestern Colombia and high
pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to gale force
early this morning offshore of NW Colombia, with winds reaching
near-gale force each night and early morning thereafter into Sun.
Very rough seas will occur near and to the west of the highest
winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A mixed cold and stationary front
extending from central Florida to 24N95W to the western Bay of
Campeche will stall today. Strong to near-gale force winds will
occur to the north and west of this front early this morning, and
winds will briefly reach gale force offshore of Veracruz. Very
rough seas up to 15 ft will occur near the gale force winds. Winds
and seas in this region will diminish from north to south this
morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to
01S18W. The ITCZ continues from 01S18W to 01S37W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 06N and east of 15W, and
south of 04N and west of 30W.

...GULF of Mexico...

Please refer to the special features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

A cold front has been analyzed from Tampa Bay to 27N86W, and a
stationary front continues to 24N95W to the western Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are
occurring to the north of these fronts in the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Strong to near-gale force N winds are occurring in the
far southwestern Gulf, with gale force winds noted just offshore
of Veracruz. Rough seas are occurring to the west of the
stationary front, with locally very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft
noted near the gale force winds. Elsewhere, a trough has been
analyzed in the eastern Bay of Campeche, and moderate to locally
fresh SE to NE winds are noted surrounding this feature.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh N winds prevail in the
southeastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold and stationary fronts
will stall today. Strong to near-gale force winds will occur to
the north and west of this front early this morning, and winds
will briefly reach gale force offshore of Veracruz. Very rough
seas up to 15 ft will occur near the gale force winds. Winds and
seas in this region will diminish from north to south this
morning. The aforementioned front will lift northward this
afternoon into Sat, supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds
across much of the basin. Winds will increase to strong speeds
across the northwestern and north-central Gulf of Mexico by Sat
morning as a tightening pressure gradient develops between the
front and strengthening low pressure in the central United States.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the northwestern
basin late Sat into Sun, promoting fresh to strong N winds and
rough seas west of 90W. Gale force winds will be possible offshore
of Veracruz on Sun behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the special features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia this morning.

A tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the
central Atlantic and the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon
trough in the south-central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting
widespread fresh E winds through much of the basin, with strong
winds occurring in the central Caribbean, through the Windward
Passage, in the Gulf of Honduras and through the Atlantic Passages
into the northeastern Caribbean. Gale force winds are noted just
offshore of Colombia. Rough seas cover the southwestern, central
and eastern basin, with locally very rough seas occurring near and
to the west of the gale force winds.

For the forecast, widespread fresh E trade winds and rough seas
will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean
through this weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force early this
morning offshore of NW Colombia, with winds reaching near-gale
force each night and early morning thereafter into Sun. Very rough
seas will occur near and to the west of the highest winds.
Pulsing strong winds are expected across the central Caribbean
through this weekend, as well as in the Gulf of Venezuela, through
the Atlantic Passages, in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will
occur in the northwestern Caribbean through this weekend. Looking
ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the Colombian low
and high pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the
basin into early next week, with locally strong winds occurring
offshore of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N21W to 25.5N33W in the eastern
Atlantic. Rough seas are occurring along and to the north of this
front, and seas of 12 to 15 ft are noted north of 27.5N.
Elsewhere, a cold front is pushing off the southeastern coast of
the United States, extending from 31N77W to central Florida.
Moderate N winds are occurring north of this front. Otherwise, the
remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1030 mb high centered
near 29N57W. Moderate to fresh E trade winds and rough are
occurring south of 25N, with locally strong winds noted south of
20N and west of 40W. Locally very rough seas are occurring near
the strongest winds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E trade winds are expected
south of 25N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the
Caribbean through late tonight, with fresh to pulsing strong E
winds expected into early next week. A long-period E swell will
support rough seas in this region, with locally very rough seas
possible east of the Windward Islands through Sat. A strong cold
front extending from 31N77W to central Florida will progress
southeastward today, leading to fresh to strong NE to E winds
behind the front, generally north of 28.5N and west of 60W. Rough
seas will occur in tandem with these winds. The cold front will
stall along 28N on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
prevail north of this boundary. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S
to SW winds and rough seas will develop west of 70W off the coast
of Florida on Sun ahead of a very strong storm system moving
through the eastern United States. A cold front associated with
this system will exit the SE United States late Sun and reach from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE
and weaken considerably through Tue.

$$
ADAMS
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