ACUS48 KWNS 250938
SWOD48
SPC AC 250937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN
Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max
moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the
phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability
with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface
low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be
the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front.

GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as
compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening.
In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying
will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low
due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong
storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a
faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land,
except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends
will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas.

After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the
period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong
northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic
surges of high pressure.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

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ACUS48 KWNS 230956
SWOD48
SPC AC 230955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe-weather potential is still expected for Days 4-6
Thursday-Saturday, as an upper trough emerging from California and
the Southwest deserts moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South by
Thursday/Day 4. At least a low-end multi-day regional severe risk is
expected across south-central and east/southeast Texas towards parts
of the ArkLaTex, and possibly the Lower Mississippi Valley. In
particular, Thursday/Day 4 could ultimately warrant Slight
Risk-caliber severe probabilities across south-central to
east/southeast Texas although guidance variability persists, while objective/machine-learning guidance generally also persist with
sub-15 percent probabilities.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024
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ACUS48 KWNS 020902
SWOD48
SPC AC 020900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The mid-level flow pattern will undergo significant amplification
over the next several days as a large western US trough begins to
move eastward. Very rich moisture will support widespread
thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southeast and eastern US
through the weekend.

...D4/Saturday Mid South...
The upper low over northern Mexico will continue to amplify as it
begins ejecting eastward across the lower and mid MS Valley. A
strong 100+ kt jet will move east of the trough and overspread a
relatively broad warm sector across the Sabine and MS Valleys into
parts of TN/KY. Unseasonably rich moisture from several days of
southerly flow will be in place ahead of a surface low and cold
front. One or more rounds of severe storms, including supercells,
appears likely from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS through the day.
All hazards will be possible. Storms should eventually grow upscale
into a line or cluster and spread eastward overnight into parts of
AL, FL, and GA.

The northern bound of the risk area across the TN Valley and into
the OH valley appears somewhat conditional. Multiple preceding days
of storms may limit the northern extent of the deeper moisture and
buoyancy. However, some severe risk likely exists given the
intensity of the low-level jet and abundance of moisture.

...Day 5...
The severe threat is likely to carry over from Day 4 in the form of
a squall line, as the upper wave gradually devolves into a broader positive-tilt trough. Strong mid-level flow and ascent will persist
over a broadening warm sector across the Southeast. While lapse
rates appear weak from several days of convection, some severe risk
is possible. The intensity of the severe risk will be heavily
dependent on the convective evolution from the prior day 4 which is
very unclear at the moment. Will add a 15% area across parts of AL,
FL, GA and SC where the best overlap of mid-level flow and robust
moisture are expected to support potential for damaging gusts.

A severe risk may also develop across parts of the Carolinas and mid
Atlantic Day5/Sunday. As the upper wave lifts to the north, ascent
will overspread returning surface moisture as far north as southern
PA. It is unclear how much buoyancy will be present with the
potential for widespread clouds. However, strong flow fields will be
available to any convection that can develop.

...D6+...
Offshore flow and high pressure will begin to dominate the extended
period as mid-level ridging intensifies over the center of the
country. Much cooler and stable conditions behind the advancing cold
front appear likely to temporarily end broader potential for severe
storms through early next week.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

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