ACUS48 KWNS 250938
SWOD48
SPC AC 250937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN
Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max
moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the
phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability
with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface
low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be
the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front.

GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as
compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening.
In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying
will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low
due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong
storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a
faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land,
except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends
will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas.

After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the
period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong
northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic
surges of high pressure.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

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ACUS48 KWNS 230956
SWOD48
SPC AC 230955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe-weather potential is still expected for Days 4-6
Thursday-Saturday, as an upper trough emerging from California and
the Southwest deserts moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South by
Thursday/Day 4. At least a low-end multi-day regional severe risk is
expected across south-central and east/southeast Texas towards parts
of the ArkLaTex, and possibly the Lower Mississippi Valley. In
particular, Thursday/Day 4 could ultimately warrant Slight
Risk-caliber severe probabilities across south-central to
east/southeast Texas although guidance variability persists, while objective/machine-learning guidance generally also persist with
sub-15 percent probabilities.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024
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