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  • ADVISORY 16 Rafael

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Thu Nov 7 10:07:00 2024
    874
    WTNT33 KNHC 071451
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
    900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

    ...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


    SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W
    ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
    ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
    monitor the progress of Rafael.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
    near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.2 West. Rafael is moving
    toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
    west is expected later today, with this general motion continuing
    through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
    move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

    Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
    sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
    higher gusts. Some additional weakening is anticipated during the
    next few days.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
    (185 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
    Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
    WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

    RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
    today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across
    portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding
    and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf .

    SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
    of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are
    likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart


    $$
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