ACUS03 KWNS 290707
SWODY3
SPC AC 290706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday from the
western Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas and Virginia.
Strong wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Western Gulf Coast/Southeast/Southern
Appalachians/Carolinas/Virginia...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
central U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southeastward into the southeastern U.S. being positioned
form the western Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians by midday.
As surface temperatures warm during the day, pockets of weak
instability are expected to develop, with surface dewpoints ahead of
the front in the lower to mid 60s F. Increasing instability and
low-level convergence along and just ahead of the front will likely
result in thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Near the
front, deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 kt range.
This combined with steep low-level lapse rates will make isolated
damaging wind gusts a possibility. Hail could also occur with the
stronger cores. Any severe threat is expected to be marginal and
confined to the mid to late afternoon when surface temperatures will
be maximized.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the central Great
Plains into the western Ozarks late Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night.

...Central Great Plains into the Ozarks...
A mid-level low and attendant trough, initially over western WY and
the eastern Great Basin, will move east-southeastward to the central
High Plains. A belt of strong cyclonically curved 500 mb flow will
move through the base of the trough and overspread a destabilizing
warm sector across the central and southern Great Plains. In the
low levels, a surface cyclone over western KS will develop eastward
and elongate as a cold front over the central High Plains surges
southward into northwest TX and the northwest half of OK by early
Wednesday morning.

A capped but gradually moistening boundary layer will spread
northward into northern OK and KS during the day on strengthening
southerly low-level flow. Strong deep-layer ascent near the surface
low will likely favor initial thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) and strong
flow will support storm organization with large hail and severe
gusts the primary hazard. A strengthening LLJ during the evening
over OK/KS and associated isentropic lift will probably lead to
additional storms and the organization of a thunderstorm cluster
moving east-southeast during the night into parts of southeast KS
and adjacent parts of OK/AR/MO.

Farther south across OK, thunderstorm development is less likely
during the day owing to the aforementioned cap. Nonetheless, a low
probability scenario for a storm or two southward along the dryline
cannot be ruled out. It seems plausible the risk for isolated to
scattered storms will focus overnight across northern and eastern OK
as strong large-scale forcing promotes isolated to scattered storms.
Hail/wind would be the primary risks with this activity.

..Smith.. 04/04/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 070725
SWODY3
SPC AC 070724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Fri May 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms appear possible on Sunday from
parts of central/east Texas to the Mid-South.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South and Lower Ohio Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance from the
southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH
Valley through Sunday evening. A weak surface low over southwestern
MO Sunday morning is forecast to develops towards the lower OH
Valley in the same time frame, while a trailing cold front moves
southeastward across parts of central/east TX, AR, and the
Mid-South. A strong southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to shift
quickly eastward from the Mid-South vicinity to the OH Valley by
Sunday afternoon.

Mainly elevated storms will probably be ongoing Sunday morning
across portions of southern MO/IL in the warm advection regime
associated with the low-level jet. In the wake of this early
activity, low-level moisture should increase ahead of the
southeastward-moving cold front. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints
appear likely to be in place across much of the warm sector by
Sunday afternoon. Diurnal heating of this moist low-level airmass
should foster moderate to potentially strong instability ahead of
the front, particularly across central/east TX into parts of
northern LA and much of AR. Even though large-scale ascent across
this region may remain fairly muted, most guidance indicates
convection will develop along the cold front. Forecast deep-layer
shear appears strong enough to support organized severe storms, with
both large hail and damaging straight-line winds possible. Upscale
growth into a line along the front may also occur. These storms
should eventually weaken with eastward extent across the lower MS
Valley as they outpace the better low-level moisture return and
encounter a less unstable airmass.

Farther north across parts of the mid MS Valley into the Lower OH
Valley, instability should be weaker owing to the influence of the
morning convection and slightly less low-level moisture return.
Still, the presence of low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints
along and just east of the weak surface low suggest some potential
for surface-based convection across this region. Various forecast
soundings indicate strong shear in the low levels, but weak to
minimal instability. Although some severe threat may materialize
across parts of southern IL/IN into western/central KY Sunday afternoon/evening, this potential currently appears too limited to
include any more than a Marginal Risk for these areas.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 280659
SWODY3
SPC AC 280658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the
Permian Basin and southwest Texas. Large to very large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid- to upper-level trough near southern CA Saturday morning will
move east into southern AZ/northwestern Mexico by late Saturday
night. A belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly 500 mb flow
(35-40 kt) will nose eastward across northern Mexico into southern
NM and southwest TX during the evening/overnight. Moist
southeasterly upslope flow will maintain a seasonably moist airmass
in the Permian Basin featuring 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will
result in steep 0-2 km lapse rates and a moderate to very unstable
airmass by late afternoon from southwest TX into southeast NM
(2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Veering flow in the low to mid levels
beneath 70 kt 250 mb flow, will result in a wind profile supporting
supercells. By early evening, low-level shear is forecast to
strengthen coincident with a strengthening LLJ over west TX and
perhaps a narrow window of opportunity for a tornado risk with the
stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster or two will
probably occur and this activity may persist into the late evening
with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL
Peninsula, eastern NC, and over the central High Plains.

..Smith.. 05/28/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 040729
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail will be
possible across a portion of the upper Mississippi Valley as well as
the southern High Plains on Sunday.

...Upper Mississippi Valley region...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within belt of stronger
westerlies will move along the international border and through
southern Manitoba and western Ontario during the day. A cold front
will accompany this feature and move through the northern Plains and
into upper MS Valley during the day. By late afternoon the front
should extend from northwest MN southwest through eastern SD into
western NE. A corridor of moderate instability is expected in the
pre-frontal warm sector with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The deeper
forcing for ascent attending the shortwave trough will remain north
of the international border, but frontal convergence might be
sufficient to initiate a few storms by late afternoon, especially
across MN. Storms that develop might become capable of producing a
few locally strong wind gusts and hail through early evening before
weakening as the surface layer begins to stabilize.

...Southern High Plains...

Closed upper low currently situated over TX is forecast to drift
slowly northward into OK Sunday. Modest northwest winds aloft will
prevail upstream of this feature over the southern High Plains. A
corridor of moderate instability will likely evolve where plume of
steeper lapse rates overlaps the western fringe of richer low-level
moisture across west TX. Potential will exist for a few storms to
develop over the higher terrain and within the more deeply mixed
regime across eastern NM and spread southeast. Southeasterly
low-level winds beneath modest northwest winds aloft will contribute
to 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This environment will support some
threat for large hail and locally strong wind gusts as storms spread
southeast during the late afternoon through mid evening.

..Dial.. 06/04/2021

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 270730
SWODY3
SPC AC 270729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is
forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In
its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and
related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward
the northern Rockies by Monday evening.

...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley...
A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region
Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the
approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression
of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization
remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging
wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley
through the day.

...Parts of central/south TX...
An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early
Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east.
This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by
afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While
stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong
heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible.
Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization,
so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and
isolated severe gusts.

...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes
region...
A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH
Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach
parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate
deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front,
destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness
and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding
the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at
this time.

..Dean.. 04/27/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 100730
SWODY3
SPC AC 100729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern Plains on Sunday.

...Southern Plains...
A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the
central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning,
accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from
northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is
forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern
High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and
southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow
will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower
MS Valley.

The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern
Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's
thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early
morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a
large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into
western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General
cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to
persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level
moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this
cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in
fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the
cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this
corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant
to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along
and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong
enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the
primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution,
and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher
that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook.

...Upper Midwest...
A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are
forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An
attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the
Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely
destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid
low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear
should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting
the overall severe potential.

..Mosier.. 05/10/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 140701
SWODY3
SPC AC 140700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening
and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS
on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern
MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest
winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper
MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes
as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower
over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID.

At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the
primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will
become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and
overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast.
Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS
Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the
vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with
the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI,
with generally weak lift for much of the day points west.

...Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes...
Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt
westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in
substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this
activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day.

To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead
trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the
overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along
and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY
into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front,
along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of
hail through the night.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 020724
SWODY3
SPC AC 020723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes
will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent
mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon
Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream,
seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the
upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the
south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across
northern Quebec.

In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered
across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an
axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great
Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of
this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and
east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However,
it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to
the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may
advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the
northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday.

Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate
that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a
pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of
Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into
southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for
ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within
this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive
to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it
currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in
nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding
introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities.

Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation
emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the
Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the
risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly
and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 08/02/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 170717
SWODY3
SPC AC 170717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and
perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday
night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will
prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified,
but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to
include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners.
Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast
Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations
pivoting around its periphery.

Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build
across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle
Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is
forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Gulf Coast.

Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is
likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow
will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and
contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly
cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow.

...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas...
With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the
Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de
Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico,
may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further
weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly
conducive to severe storm development. However, with some
additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool
mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000
J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing
favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave
perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the
mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly
after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread
within the model output concerning this feature.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 180723
SWODY3
SPC AC 180723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High
Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low.

...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an
open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate
eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the
southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued
surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very
modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley
anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly
move eastward along with the upper trough.

...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity...
A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account
of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential
for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather
cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until
mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold
enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could
support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the
mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe
weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally
severe hail are possible in the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 250807
SWODY3
SPC AC 250807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley
into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across
northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over
much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed
max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO
Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A
cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as
it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast
States.

...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley...
A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast
Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the
day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast
TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped
during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight
as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear
(with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will
be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb.
This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce
severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary
layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could
result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts.

Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities
this outlook cycle.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 230821
SWODY3
SPC AC 230820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Discussion...
A lead southern-stream shortwave trough will tend to weaken across
the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday, while a
secondary shortwave trough modestly amplifies as it progresses east-southeastward over the southern Rockies toward far west Texas
Wednesday night. Some thunderstorms may linger during the day across
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast, and possibly into other parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Related to the secondary shortwave
trough, isolated elevated thunderstorm development may also occur
late Wednesday night across far eastern New Mexico into
west/northwest Texas including the Texas Panhandle, with forecast
soundings plausibly showing a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE across this
region by daybreak (12z) Thursday.

Additionally, a few thunderstorms could again occur near the coastal
Pacific Northwest/northern California Wednesday night as a shortwave trough/frontal band approaches and mid-level lapse rates steepen.
Little or no severe-weather potential is currently expected with any
of these scenarios, largely attributable to minimal buoyancy in each
instance.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)