439
WTNT31 KNHC 111744
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 92.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the
southwestern coast of Louisiana west of Cameron.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area in the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is
anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area
later this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is
expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move
northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the
system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). An oil platform east of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a peak gust of
102 mph (164 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft (31 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
The oil platform with the winds reported above also reported a
pressure of 983.3 mb (29.04 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions
ongoing. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area later this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the
WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html .

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight
across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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