ACUS11 KWNS 251930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251929
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 251929Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will
increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through
the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL.
Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface
low from southern IL into central KY.

In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with
temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below
1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F.

Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should
aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of
heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become
increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time
frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F
dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place,
effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 35048892 35238887 35668872 36178799 36478647 36318583
36008560 35548590 35368661 35378741 35278780 34998804
34718875 34798891 35048892

$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 251933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251933
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...The mid-Mississippi River Valley and lower Ohio
River Valley Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 251933Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely in the coming hours as a surface
low and associated warm front continue to lift northward through the
late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past couple of hours have
shown 2-3 mb surface pressure falls over northeast AR into the lower
OH River Valley region. The surface low located over northeast AR
continues to consolidate and is expected to deepen further as it
lifts to the north/northeast. As this occurs, an associated surface
warm front will lift to the north and allow a higher theta-e air
mass (noted by temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s) to overspread
the mid-MS River Valley and lower OH River Valley regions and allow
MLCAPE to increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Storms are forecast
to develop along the surface warm front and surface trough in the
vicinity of the low, and southwesterly 60-70 knots of effective bulk
shear will help support discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. Along
with a hail/wind threat, backed low-level winds within the open warm
sector will support ESRH values on the order of 300 m2/s2 and a
tornado threat with any discrete convection that can develop. Recent
guidance suggests storm initiation within this region may occur
within the 22-00 UTC time frame. A tornado watch will likely be
needed in the coming hours to address this concern.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/25/2021

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 36498774 36148863 35988936 36238974 36718989 37438983
38008958 38438912 38778824 38788726 38348672 37528679
37008706 36498774

$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 101359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101358
FLZ000-GAZ000-101530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle and parts of far southern
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 101358Z - 101530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across the portions of WW 89 that
remain in effect, with some risk evident eastward across the
remainder of the Florida Panhandle. A new WW will likely be issued.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the northeastern portion of a
northern Gulf of Mexico band of storms now crossing central portions
of the Florida Peninsula west of Tallahassee. Gusty/damaging wind
risk remains apparent -- per WSR-88D imagery, where outflow in
excess of 50 kt is indicated just off the surface across parts of
Washington and Bay counties.

Very limited heating of the relatively moist airmass just downstream
is supporting mixed-layer CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg. While a
more stable/drier airmass exists into the northern Florida
Peninsula, it appears at this time that a sufficiently unstable
environment downstream into the Big Bend region will support a
continued eastward advance of storms. Locally damaging winds will
remain the primary severe risk, though a QLCS-type tornado or two
will remain possible. With storms expected to move out of the
existing watch within the next hour, a new WW will be issued
shortly.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/10/2021

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30548604 30998546 30878418 30938356 30608328 29748299
29198324 29498512 29798596 30548604
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 141744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141743
TXZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141743Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development over the next couple of hours will be
accompanied by some increase in risk for large hail and locally
strong/damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. A WW may be
required.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
western portions of the Texas Coastal Plain/eastern fringes of the
Hill Country, and then westward into the Edwards Plateau.
Meanwhile, a sea-breeze boundary has pushed into coastal counties,
with high theta-e marine air along and east of this boundary.

Though capping (near 700 mb) remains established across the area,
continued heating/mixing of the boundary layer will weaken the cap
locally -- particularly near the aforementioned surface boundaries
where ascent is locally maximized. With steep lapse rates overlying
this region above the capping layer, the destabilizing environment
-- represented by mixed-layer CAPE values now in excess of 2500 J/kg
across the region per RUC-based objective analyses -- combined with
the weakening cap will support local/robust updraft development.

While deep-layer shear is not excessive, partially owing to modest
low-level flow, ample (around 30 kt) mid-level west-southwesterlies
are contributing to shear sufficient for multicell organization, and
even some mid-level updraft rotation. As such, potential for hail
and/or locally strong outflow winds will be possible with a few of
the strongest storms. We will continue to monitor development, for
signs that convective development/coverage may warrant WW issuance.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/14/2021

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29279811 29559761 29829683 29909598 30189492 29659475
28749616 28169709 28299783 28449828 28839839 29279811

$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 051929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051929
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas...extreme southeast Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051929Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms are expected through the
afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail
may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a surface cold
front across western Kansas into eastern Colorado, just south of a
CBK-GLD-ITR line, and is gradually propagating southeast. Convection
will continue to gradually deepen and intensify with continued
strong diurnal heating and associated boundary-layer mixing.
Deep-layer steep lapse rates are in place, with the latest RAP PFCs
suggesting boundary-layer mixing past 700 mb. 8-9 C/km lapse rates
are present within the lowest 2 km, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km lapse
rates in the mid levels. Relatively stronger flow aloft (i.e. 50+
kts) is contained roughly above 500 mb. Still, the presence of a
deep, dry sub-cloud layer will promote enough evaporative cooling
for efficient downward momentum transport of the mid-level flow with
any of the stronger storm cores that can develop. A brief instance
or two marginally severe hail is also possible given the steep
mid-level lapse rates.

Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain brief and
sparse overall. A WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 36470180 36890216 37340219 37830203 38290181 38510147
38720086 38650036 38450003 37959977 37389973 36889982
36639999 36500021 36470180
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 091832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091831
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-092100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...far southeast Colorado...and
the far western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091831Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico and
far southeast Colorado over the next few hours will pose a threat
for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. This threat will
remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A deepening cluster of cumulus within a post
cold-frontal upslope flow regime across north/northeastern NM is
noted in recent GOES imagery. A few lightning strikes have been
noted in the past hour with transient convective cells, hinting that
more robust convection is possible in the next 1-2 hours. Across the
high Plains to the east, temperatures are gradually warming into the
low 60s amid partly cloudy skies. Cool temperatures aloft atop the
warming boundary-layer are steepening low-level lapse rates to 7-9
C/km, and this trend should continue with eastward extent through
the late afternoon. Although instability will remain somewhat
limited due to minimal low-level moisture (only around 500 J/kg
MLCAPE is expected), 30-45 knot effective bulk shear magnitudes may
support some storm organization and an isolated hail threat adjacent
to the higher terrain. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, strong
downburst winds appear to be the more likely hazard. In general, the
localized forcing for ascent and limited instability will likely
result in only a few strong to severe storms that may propagate as
far east as the NM/TX border by early evening. The overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34710551 35170586 35680611 36390582 36940551 37290510
37470460 37450410 37130357 36620325 35960290 34930287
34320307 34300453 34710551
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 111847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111846
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-112045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...and the
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111846Z - 112045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A loosely-organized squall line may be capable of damaging
winds as it continues east along the Gulf Coast. However, confidence
in this threat is low, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent velocity data from KMOB shows outflow associated
with a weak and loosely organized squall line becoming slightly more
organized as it propagates to the east across southwestern AL and
into the FL Panhandle. VWP observations from KMOB show 20-30 knots
winds in the lowest 2-3 km associated with this line, which is
supported by recent observed wind gusts up to 25 knots at the
surface. While severe winds do not appear likely in the near term,
the potential for damaging winds may increase over the next 1-3
hours as the line moves into southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL
Panhandle where low-level lapse rates are steepening to 7-8 C/km
amid modest daytime heating. The environment ahead of this line
remains supportive for storm maintenance, but it is not immediately
clear if the damaging wind potential will be realized along the
entire line - mainly due to weak low-level shear in the lowest 4 km.
Pockets of intensification are noted in GOES IR imagery over the
past 30 minutes, which suggests that at least localized strong winds
are possible. Due to the low confidence in a more widespread/robust
severe threat, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31398810 31858797 32168747 32368612 32418533 32298476
31718439 31008445 30178501 30048536 30298602 30378661
30328707 30278761 30288793 30928802 31398810
$$
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