SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may
consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado
threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been
elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of
the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central
AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired
rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface
based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures
warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing
effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a
tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2
along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger
instability develops into the warm advection zone.
Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021828Z - 022030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the next couple of hours across western/central Texas.
Hail and strong wind gusts may accompany this activity into the
early evening.
DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from morning convection extends
from near BPG to SJT to BBD early this afternoon. Strong heating in
the vicinity of the boundary amid upper 50s to low 60s surface
dewpoints is aiding in strong destabilization, with 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE noted in 18z mesoanalysis data. A couple of initial
thunderstorms have developed along/just north of the boundary within
the past hour or two before weakening. Additional, more robust
development, has been noted recently over northern Sterling County
with additional deepening CU noted further northwest to the north of
Midland. While large-scale forcing will remain somewhat modest,
additional diurnal development is expected in the vicinity of the
surface boundary given weak low level convergence and strong
instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient shear should
allow for a couple of organized cells capable of hail and strong
gusts. Timing and convective coverage still remains somewhat
uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
over the next few hours.