• Heavy Rain/Flood OKARLATX

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Tue Jun 4 08:22:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 041009
    FFGMPD
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-041607-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0394
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    608 AM EDT Tue Jun 04 2024

    Areas affected...Central to Southeast OK into the Arklatex

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 041007Z - 041607Z

    SUMMARY...A strong forward-propagating MCS will drop southeast
    this morning across the Arklatex and bring a renewed threat for
    flash flooding given very sensitive/wet antecedent conditions.

    DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
    with dual-pol radar shows a strong forward-propagating MCS
    advancing into southeast OK, and over the next few hours this
    powerful, but relatively compact MCS should cross through the
    Arklatex region. The airmass across the Red River Valley is
    extremely unstable and especially over areas of northern TX where
    MUCAPE values of 4000 to 5000 J/kg are in place, and this is being
    highly influenced by proximity of a strong EML with enhanced
    500/700 mb lapse rates.

    A moist southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts continues to
    impinge on the southwest flank of the convective mass, and the MCS
    should track southeast along the very strong instability gradient
    that is in place across the broader Arklatex region.

    A bow-and-arrow structure to the MCS may take place over the next
    few hours which will be characterized by the leading bow portion
    of the MCS advancing through northeast TX, southwest AR and
    eventually into northwest LA, while a more linear
    northwest/southeast oriented axis of convection redevelops in its
    wake across areas of central to southeast OK where the veering,
    moist/unstable low-level jet will be overrunning a strong cold
    pool.

    Rainfall rates with the leading convective bow may still reach as
    much as 1 to 2"/hour, but the fast forward propagation will tend
    to mitigate the short-term totals. However, closer to the
    comma-head of the MCS where a strong MCV is noted over eastern OK,
    and with any redeveloping linear bands of convection over
    southeast OK in the wake of the bow, there may be sufficient
    persistence of convection for an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain.

    The antecedent conditions across the entire region, including the
    broader Arklatex, are quite sensitive given recent heavy rainfall,
    so these additional totals may result in additional flash flooding
    concerns this morning.

    Orrison

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 35639705 35519600 35209459 34739369 34209303
    33359262 32269284 31869409 32149554 33029655
    34379724 35259744

    = = =
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