AWUS01 KWNH 031011
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-031610-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0385
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 AM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast KS...Central and
Eastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031010Z - 031610Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will be gradually developing
and expanding in coverage this morning across areas of
south-central to southeast KS and also central and eastern OK.
Localized concerns for cell-training along with high rainfall
rates may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude shortwave energy including multiple
small-scale vort centers will work in tandem with a broad warm air
advection pattern across the central and southern Plains to yield
multiple clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms this morning.
There is already an MCS advancing southeast across southwest KS
which is expected to impact areas of northwest and eventually
central OK going through the morning hours. However, separate
regional clusters of convection are expected to develop ahead of
this MCS, with gradual focus over areas of south-central to
southeast KS down through northeast and east-central OK.

A low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts will gradually veer with time and
maintain a persistent transport of moisture and instability off to
the northeast ahead of the aforementioned MCS activity. Already
there is a substantial amount of elevated CAPE (3000 to 4000 J/kg)
over central OK and nosing up into southern KS which is being
strongly aided by steep 500/700 mb layer lapse rates and arrival
of an EML from the west-southwest as suggested in the GOES-E
mid-level WV band.

The convection within the overall warm air advection regime will
largely be elevated in nature at least through this morning over
southern KS and through central/eastern OK, but will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall rates that may reach upwards of 1.5" to
2"/hour with the stronger cells, and there is already a fair
amount of effective bulk shear (40 to 50 kts) that will support
organized and sustainable updrafts in time.

Expect by late morning there to be some localized swaths of as
much as 3 to 4 inches of rain with isolated heavier totals. This
will promote a threat for scattered instances of flash flooding,
with the more urbanized locations the most likely to see concerns
for runoff problems.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...SHV...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38379611 38319523 37889475 36659464 36009456
35119453 34289477 34089546 34239658 35139854
35909940 36689981 37329966 37919879 38009729


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AWUS01 KWNH 301349
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-301600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...southwestern Kansas, northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301348Z - 301600Z

Summary...A slow-moving MCS continues to produce 1-3 inch/hr rain
rates along an axis from near Dodge City, KS to Alva, OK. Flash
flooding remains likely, although a gradual lessening of rain
rates is expected through 16-17Z.

Discussion...The combination of mid-level organization and a
mature cold pool associated with a nearly-stationary convective
complex has enabled substantial longevity of a cold pool well
beyond model depictions over the past few hours. Convergence
along the western flank of this MCS (from 15-20 kt 850 flow)
continues to aid in robust updraft redevelopment while maintaining
1000 J/kg MUCAPE within the pre-convective environment. Radar
estimates of 1-6 inch rain totals have occurred with the complex
over the past 3 hours, and 1-3 inch/hr rain rates continue to be
estimated per MRMS especially near/south of Dodge City.

Convective trends suggest persistence of this MCS for at least the
next 1-2 hours, with support by newer updrafts (evident in radar
and visible satellite) feeding into the complex from the south.
Over time, weakening and backing of low-level flow across the
TX/OK panhandles will probably cause an overall weakening and
eventual dissipation of the complex. There is some lingering
uncertainty with regard to temporal longevity of the complex,
however. Trends will be evaluated for any lingering flash flood
risk beyond 16Z.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38390007 38159883 37699770 37109678 36269680
35679772 35959946 37180192 38140164 38350097

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