• Heavy Rain/Flooding KS/OK

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Mon Jun 3 08:45:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 031011
    FFGMPD
    OKZ000-KSZ000-031610-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0385
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    610 AM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

    Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast KS...Central and
    Eastern OK

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 031010Z - 031610Z

    SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will be gradually developing
    and expanding in coverage this morning across areas of
    south-central to southeast KS and also central and eastern OK.
    Localized concerns for cell-training along with high rainfall
    rates may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.

    DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude shortwave energy including multiple
    small-scale vort centers will work in tandem with a broad warm air
    advection pattern across the central and southern Plains to yield
    multiple clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms this morning.
    There is already an MCS advancing southeast across southwest KS
    which is expected to impact areas of northwest and eventually
    central OK going through the morning hours. However, separate
    regional clusters of convection are expected to develop ahead of
    this MCS, with gradual focus over areas of south-central to
    southeast KS down through northeast and east-central OK.

    A low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts will gradually veer with time and
    maintain a persistent transport of moisture and instability off to
    the northeast ahead of the aforementioned MCS activity. Already
    there is a substantial amount of elevated CAPE (3000 to 4000 J/kg)
    over central OK and nosing up into southern KS which is being
    strongly aided by steep 500/700 mb layer lapse rates and arrival
    of an EML from the west-southwest as suggested in the GOES-E
    mid-level WV band.

    The convection within the overall warm air advection regime will
    largely be elevated in nature at least through this morning over
    southern KS and through central/eastern OK, but will be capable of
    producing heavy rainfall rates that may reach upwards of 1.5" to
    2"/hour with the stronger cells, and there is already a fair
    amount of effective bulk shear (40 to 50 kts) that will support
    organized and sustainable updrafts in time.

    Expect by late morning there to be some localized swaths of as
    much as 3 to 4 inches of rain with isolated heavier totals. This
    will promote a threat for scattered instances of flash flooding,
    with the more urbanized locations the most likely to see concerns
    for runoff problems.

    Orrison

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...SHV...TOP...TSA...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 38379611 38319523 37889475 36659464 36009456
    35119453 34289477 34089546 34239658 35139854
    35909940 36689981 37329966 37919879 38009729


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  • From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Sun Jun 30 09:13:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 301349
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-301600-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0520
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    948 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

    Areas affected...southwestern Kansas, northern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 301348Z - 301600Z

    Summary...A slow-moving MCS continues to produce 1-3 inch/hr rain
    rates along an axis from near Dodge City, KS to Alva, OK. Flash
    flooding remains likely, although a gradual lessening of rain
    rates is expected through 16-17Z.

    Discussion...The combination of mid-level organization and a
    mature cold pool associated with a nearly-stationary convective
    complex has enabled substantial longevity of a cold pool well
    beyond model depictions over the past few hours. Convergence
    along the western flank of this MCS (from 15-20 kt 850 flow)
    continues to aid in robust updraft redevelopment while maintaining
    1000 J/kg MUCAPE within the pre-convective environment. Radar
    estimates of 1-6 inch rain totals have occurred with the complex
    over the past 3 hours, and 1-3 inch/hr rain rates continue to be
    estimated per MRMS especially near/south of Dodge City.

    Convective trends suggest persistence of this MCS for at least the
    next 1-2 hours, with support by newer updrafts (evident in radar
    and visible satellite) feeding into the complex from the south.
    Over time, weakening and backing of low-level flow across the
    TX/OK panhandles will probably cause an overall weakening and
    eventual dissipation of the complex. There is some lingering
    uncertainty with regard to temporal longevity of the complex,
    however. Trends will be evaluated for any lingering flash flood
    risk beyond 16Z.

    Cook

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...TSA...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 38390007 38159883 37699770 37109678 36269680
    35679772 35959946 37180192 38140164 38350097

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  • From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Tue Jun 17 09:02:00 2025
    AWUS01 KWNH 171153
    FFGMPD
    KSZ000-171531-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0467
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    752 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

    Areas affected...Central KS...Far Northern OK

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 171152Z - 171531Z

    Summary...Convection has developed upstream of an intense bowing
    segment along the KS-OK border. Periodic training of these upwind
    cells containing max hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2"/hr could
    support additional flash flooding this morning.

    Discussion...Radar depicts an axis of convection developing across
    Central KS, upstream of an intense bowing segment currently
    located along the KS-OK border. While this bowing segment is
    rapidly forward propagating, 2"/hr rainfall rates led to several
    reports of flash flooding in the Wichita area earlier, with
    additional reports received to the north in McPherson from the
    upstream activity.

    Objective analysis output suggests the environment in the wake of
    this bowing segment will support the maintenance of training cells
    for several more hours as a 30-40 kt nocturnal LLJ bisects a NW-SE
    oriented stationary front, which was parallel to the NW'ly
    effective shear vectors amid 2000-3000 MUCAPE and 1.4-1.7" PWATS.

    The HRRR suggests localized amounts upwards of 1.5-2.5" are
    possible through 15Z, in addition to the 2-3" estimated earlier.
    Thus, additional instances of flash flooding are possible where
    these cells can train before the nocturnal LLJ begins to weaken
    around 15z, particularly over the Wichita and McPherson areas
    currently experiencing flash flooding.

    Asherman

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

    ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

    LAT...LON 39459879 38629718 37779656 37119678 37119769
    37779874 38959953

    $$
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