Mesoscale Discussion 0524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected...Eastern OK to southwest MO/western AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 138...
Valid 261235Z - 261430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 138 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including the potential for primarily
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes continues across eastern
Oklahoma, and may develop into far western Arkansas and possibly
southwest Missouri. Tornado Watch 138 continues for eastern
Oklahoma, and downstream Arkansas/southwest Missouri areas are being
monitored for possible but uncertain Watch issuance in the short
term.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized squall line with
LEWP/northern-peripheral bowing characteristics continues across
eastern Oklahoma, with bow-related northeastward storm motions
around 50 kt. The most intense portion of the squall line and
greatest short-term severe risk should be focused where the
convective line intercepts the warm front (and just a bit north
thereof) in the general vicinity of I-40 in far eastern Oklahoma
into west/northwest Arkansas. Farther north, the severe-potential
longevity of the surging bowing portion of the line is a bit more
uncertain with northward extent, given that the bowing line will
gradually encounter an increasingly more stable boundary layer (0.5
km AGL deep per 12z Springfield MO observed sounding).