AWUS01 KWNH 191009
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern/central/northern TX into
southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191005Z - 191515Z

SUMMARY..Slow moving thunderstorms may result in widely scattered
areas of flash flooding from southwestern to central to northern
TX into southern OK through 15Z. Rainfall totals of 3 to 4+ inches
are expected.

DISCUSSION...0945Z radar imagery over OK/TX showed two regions of thunderstorms. The first was across the southeastern TX Panhandle
into southwestern OK and northern TX, bisecting a quasi-stationary
front draped from the Red River into southwestern TX. The second
area of thunderstorms was across the Trans Pecos region, also near
the front, out ahead of a slowly eastward advancing upper level
shortwave trough across far western TX/southeastern NM. Both
regions of thunderstorms were located near a gradient in
instability with strong MLCAPE values of 2000 to 4000+ J/kg
estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data from near Del Rio to Abilene
to Dallas/Fort Worth. In addition, weak deep layer steering flow
was resulting in slow storm motions and MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall between 1 and 3 inches.

A gradual eastward movement to the somewhat disorganized upper
level trough over western TX/NM should provide added ascent into
portions of central TX this morning, likely resulting in an
increase in thunderstorm coverage from 12Z-15Z. The greatest
coverage is expected to be from northern TX into southern OK where
ongoing convection is most robust with embedded mesocyclones and
stronger low level convergence in place. However, at least
scattered coverage of thunderstorms is expected to develop farther
south as well. Given forcing for ascent is not very organized and
deep layer shear is poor, storm organization and motions will be
somewhat chaotic, with an overall eastward translation of heavy
rain anticipated through the morning hours.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...LZK...MAF...OUN...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35459963 35449833 35159673 34819557 34389469
34099426 33789411 33439421 33159454 33029489
32989540 32879577 32689635 31859740 30889846
30109941 29570019 29540134 30020187 30620171
31350043 32309945 32799883 33299880 33669906
33899965 34200027 34570053 35130030

$$
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AWUS01 KWNH 011201
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1418
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...TX Hill Country to the Red River Valley of the
South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011200Z - 011800Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms with very
high rainfall rates will continue through midday across portions
of the TX Hill Country up into the Red River Valley of the South.
Additional areas of flash flooding are expected, with locally
significant urban flooding impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with radar shows an extensive axis of cold-topped convection
associated with heavy showers and thunderstorms extending from the
TX Hill Country northeastward up through north-central TX and
adjacent areas of the Red River Valley. The convection continues
to be supported by an ejecting closed low and associated upper
trough ejecting gradually out across the central and southern Plains.

The upper-level flow remains quite divergent aloft across the
region given the approach of stronger DPVA and related upper-jet
forcing. This will continue to favor at least semi-organized
clusters or bands of convection through midday as it interacts
with a very moist and relatively unstable southerly low-level jet
of 30 to 40+ kts.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are in place with PWs a solid 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. In fact, the values are
generally near 2 inches across north-central TX and the Red River
Valley region, but are as high as 2.25+ inches down toward the TX
Hill Country and much of the broader Lower Rio Grande Valley.

OSPO ALPW data confirms a deep tropical sounding profile with
moisture extremely concentrated in the warm cloud-bearing 850/700
mb layer. This focused moisture, moderate instability and axis of
deeper layer ascent should continue to favor at least some
localized swath of 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates as the overall
larger scale convective axis shifts slowly southeastward.

There is enough cell-training and storm organization to support
some additional rainfall amounts as high as 3 to 5+ inches going
through midday. The latest experimental WoFS guidance along with a
consensus of the 06Z HREF/REFS solutions supports this evolution.
However, it should be noted that recent runs of the WoFS appear
underdone with the short-term convective potential across the TX
Hill Country and adjacent areas of south-central TX.

Additional scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
expected, and there may be locally significant urban flooding
impacts. This will especially be the case around the Dallas-Fort
Worth metropolitan area over the next few hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34809552 34419484 33439491 32059588 30579720
29219861 28649985 28850075 29400105 30520033
32229873 33569769 34569653

$$
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