From: https://tinyurl.com/6vpb7y8w

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Meteorologists, Scientists Explain Why There Is `No Climate Emergency'

More than 1,600 scientists and informed professionals signed the Global
Climate Intelligence Group's "World Climate Declaration."

By Katie Spence
Sep 13, 2023
Updated:
Oct 02, 2023

There's no climate emergency. And the alarmist messaging pushed by global
elites is purely political. That's what 1,808 scientists and informed
professionals stated when they signed the Global Climate Intelligence
Group's "World Climate Declaration."

"Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should
be more scientific," the declaration begins. "Scientists should openly
address uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global
warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real costs as
well as the imagined benefits of their policy measures."

The group is an independent "climate watchdog" founded in 2019 by emeritus
professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and science journalist Marcel Crok.
According to the group's website, its objective is to "generate knowledge
and understanding of the causes and effects of climate change as well as
the effects of climate policy." And it does so by objectively looking at
the facts and engaging in scientific research into climate change and
climate policy.

The declaration's signatories include Nobel laureates, theoretical
physicists, meteorologists, professors, and environmental scientists
worldwide. And when a select few were asked by The Epoch Times why they
signed the declaration stating that the "climate emergency" is a farce,
they all stated a variation of "because it's true."

"I signed the declaration because I believe the climate is no longer
studied scientifically. Rather, it has become an item of faith," Haym
Benaroya, a distinguished professor of mechanical and aerospace
engineering at Rutgers University, told The Epoch Times.
"The earth has warmed about 2 degrees F since the end of the Little Ice
Age around 1850, but that hardly constitutes an emergency-or even a
crisis-since the planet has been warmer yet over the last few millennia,"
Ralph Alexander, a retired physicist and author of the website "Science
Under Attack," told The Epoch Times.

"There is plenty of evidence that average temperatures were higher during
the so-called Medieval Warm Period (centered around the year 1000), the
Roman Warm Period (when grapes and citrus fruits were grown in now much
colder Britain), and in the early Holocene (after the last regular Ice Age
ended)."

The climate emergency is "fiction," he said unequivocally.

The 'Climate Emergency'

Human activities and the resulting greenhouse gases are the cause of
global warming, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). Specifically, the IPCC says that in 1750, atmospheric carbon
dioxide (CO2) concentrations were 280 parts per million (ppm), and today,
the atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 420 ppm, which affects temperature.
The IPCC is the U.N. body for assessing the "science related to climate
change." It was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization
and the U.N. Environment Programme to help policymakers develop climate
policies.

Edwin Berry, a theoretical physicist and certified consulting
meteorologist, said that one of the IPCC's central theories is that
natural CO2 has stayed constant at 280 ppm since 1750 and that human CO2
is responsible for the 140 ppm increase.

This IPCC theory makes human CO2 responsible for 33 percent of today's
total CO2 level, he told The Epoch Times.

Consequently, to decrease temperatures, the IPCC says, we must reduce
human-caused CO2-thus, the current push by lawmakers and climate activists
to forcibly transition the world's transportation to electric vehicles,
get rid of fossil fuels, and generally reduce all activities that
contribute to human-caused CO2.

That entire premise, according to Mr. Berry, is problematic.

"The public perception of carbon dioxide is that it goes into the
atmosphere and stays there," Mr. Berry said. "They think it just
accumulates. But it doesn't."

He explained that when you look at the flow of carbon dioxide-"flow"
meaning the carbon moving from one carbon reservoir to another, i.e.,
through photosynthesis, the eating of plants, and back out through
respiration-a 140 ppm constant level requires a continual inflow of 40 ppm
per year of carbon dioxide, because, according to the IPCC, carbon dioxide
has a turnover time of 3.5 years (meaning carbon dioxide molecules stay in
the atmosphere for about 3 1/2 years).

"A level of 280 ppm is twice that-80 ppm of inflow. Now, we're saying that
the inflow of human carbon dioxide is one-third of the total. Even IPCC
data says, 'No, human carbon dioxide inflow is about 5 percent to 7
percent of the total carbon dioxide inflow into the atmosphere,'" he said.

So, to make up for the lack of necessary human-caused carbon dioxide
flowing into the atmosphere, the IPCC claims that instead of having a
turnover time of 3.5 years, human CO2 stays in the atmosphere for hundreds
or even thousands of years.

"[The IPCC is] saying that something is different about human carbon
dioxide and that it can't flow as fast out of the atmosphere as natural
carbon dioxide," Mr. Berry said. "Well, IPCC scientists-when they've gone
through, what, billions of dollars?-should have asked a simple question:
'Is a human carbon dioxide molecule exactly identical to a natural carbon
dioxide molecule?' And the answer is yes. Of course!

"Well, if human and natural CO2 molecules are identical, their outflow
times must be identical. So, the whole idea where they say it's in there
for hundreds, or thousands, of years, is wrong."

Mr. Berry said that means nature-not humans-caused the increase in CO2.
And consequently, attempts to decrease human CO2 are pointless.

"The belief that human CO2 drives the CO2 increase may be the biggest
public delusion and most costly fraud in history," Mr. Berry said.

He pointed out that in science, the scientific method says that you can't
prove that a theory is 100 percent true-only that the data supports it-but
you can prove that it's false. Providing an example, Mr. Berry said that
Sir Isaac Newton's gravity law was the preeminent theory for a long time,
but then Albert Einstein made a correction that disproved Newton's theory.

"Go back to the scientific method: IPCC proposed a theory, and if we can
prove it's wrong, we win. And I proved, in that case, their theory is
wrong," he said.

Mr. Berry took his research a step further and calculated the human carbon
cycle using the IPCC's own carbon cycle data.

"The prediction from the same model doesn't give humans producing 140 ppm.
It comes out closer to 30 ppm. Which essentially means the IPCC is wrong,"
he said.

He said that using the IPCC's data, nature is responsible for about 390
ppm of CO2, and humans are only responsible for about 30 ppm-not 140 ppm.

"Now, someone could ask, 'Well, is the IPCC data correct?' My answer is,
'I don't know.' But I don't have to know because IPCC has used this very
data to deceive the world. I want to show that their logic is incorrect
using their data," he said.

"The IPCC was not set up as a scientific organization."

Mr. Berry said that the IPCC doesn't engage in skepticism of its theories
and, therefore, the scientific method that governs all science.

"They were set up as a political organization to specifically convince the
public that carbon dioxide was causing problems," he said.

When asked why there's a push to declare a "climate emergency," Mr. Berry
said it's all about money and control.

"That's the only real reason for it. There's no climate emergency," he
said.

Mr. Berry makes all his research, and research and correspondence from
colleagues trying to disprove his theories, available to the public.

Politics and Climate Models

Like Mr. Berry, Mr. Alexander says that science has become more political
than scientific.

"It's simply not true that the Earth's climate is threatened. That claim
is far more political than scientific," he said.

"Science is based on observational evidence, together with logic, to make
sense of the evidence. Very little, if any, evidence exists that human
emissions of CO2 cause rising temperatures. There is a correlation between
the two, but the correlation isn't particularly strong: The Earth cooled,
for example, from about 1940 to 1970, while the atmospheric CO2 level
continued to go up. Computer climate models are all that connects global
warming to CO2."

When asked why CO2 was singled out as the cause of the climate emergency,
Mr. Alexander said it goes back to James Hansen, an astrophysicist and the
head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies from 1981 to 2013, and
an ardent environmentalist.

"Hansen developed one of the first computer climate models and began to
make highly exaggerated predictions of future warming, none of which have
come true," Mr. Alexander said. "This included testimony he gave at a 1986
Senate hearing, testimony considered to have sparked the subsequent
anthropogenic global warming narrative."

Despite his predictions failing to come to fruition, Mr. Hansen's efforts
contributed to the founding of the IPCC, Mr. Alexander said.

"Although ostensibly the IPCC is a scientific body, the findings of its
scientists are frequently distorted and hyped by the government and NGO
bureaucrats who dominate the organization," he said. "The bureaucrats have
played a major role in exaggerating the scientific conclusions of
successive IPCC reports and escalating the rhetoric of its official
pronouncements. Hence, the U.N. secretary-general's recent proclamations
about a 'boiling' earth."

On July 27, Secretary General Antonio Guterres said, "Climate change is
here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning. The era of global
warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived. The air is
unbreathable. The heat is unbearable. And the level of fossil fuel profits
and climate inaction is unacceptable."

Mr. Alexander said an honest answer to what's causing Earth's warming is,
"We just don't know right now," but that doesn't mean scientists are short
of ideas.

"The chances of CO2 being the number one culprit are very slim. CO2
undoubtedly contributes, but there are several natural cycles that most
likely do, too," he said. "These include solar variability and ocean
cycles, both ignored in climate models-because we don't know how to
incorporate them-or represented poorly. While climate activists will tell
you otherwise, climate science is still in its infancy, and there is a
great deal we don't yet understand about our climate."

He said one example is a recent research paper that estimated that changes
in the sun's output could explain 70 to 80 percent of global warming.
Research such as that doesn't gain much traction because the IPCC is
committed to the idea that human CO2 is the cause of global warming.

As further criticism, Mr. Alexander said John Christy, a climatologist and
professor of atmospheric science at the University of Alabama in
Huntsville and the director of the Earth System Science Center, has
clearly demonstrated that climate models exaggerate short-term future
warming by two to three times.

To find more accurate measurements, Mr. Christy and Roy Spencer, a
climatologist, former NASA scientist, and now a principal research
scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, developed a global
temperature data set from microwave satellite observations.

They started their project in 1989, analyzed data going back to 1979, and
found that, in general, since 1979, the Earth's temperature has increased
steadily by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit every 10 years, according to global
satellite data, Mr. Spencer said on his website.

As for why climate models are so inaccurate, Mr. Alexander said: "Computer
simulations are only as reliable as the assumptions that the computer
model is built on, and there are many assumptions that go into climate
models. Assumptions about processes we don't fully understand require
approximations.

"All these large-scale and small-scale approximations are
incorporated in the model in the form of adjustable numerical
parameters-often termed `fudge factors' by scientists and engineers.
The famous mathematician John von Neumann once said, 'With four
[adjustable] parameters, I can fit an elephant, and with five, I can
make him wiggle his trunk.'"

Mr. Neumann's saying means that people shouldn't be impressed when a
complex model fits a data set because, with enough parameters, you can fit
any data set.

Mr. Benaroya echoed Mr. Alexander's criticism but took it further
regarding climate modeling.

"All climate model predictions have been wrong," Mr. Benaroya told The
Epoch Times. "It is important to understand that a computational model of
the atmosphere is inherently inaccurate. This is not the fault of the
researchers.

"It is due to the enormous complexity of the climate-chemistry; fluid
mechanics; heat transfer; effects of solar radiation; effects of the
Earth; the modeling of the oceans, which can hold tremendous amounts of
heat; and the effects of the clouds. No mathematical model put in a form
to be analyzed by a computer can account for all these effects. Many of
these effects are not fully understood. Also not understood is how these
effects are coupled to each other."

Mr. Benaroya said that in addition to not fully understanding the
complexity of the climate, what data is available is incomplete or, in
some cases, manipulated to fit a narrative.

"There have been several reports about the rigging of the data to assure
outcomes that point to the coming climate disaster," he said. "All the
predictions have been wrong. I want the climate to be nonpolitical in
science. Policies should be based on science. Policies is where the
politics come in, not the facts."

As for why there's a push to declare a "climate emergency," Mr. Benaroya
said it's about "power and money, but also larger political forces."

"[Some] may hate big industry, big oil, and technology. Maybe some hate
the West or capitalism. All these likely play a role," he said.

Mr. Alexander agreed that it's about power and money.

"In the beginning, the key phrase was simply 'global warming.' When that
aroused little interest, someone came up with the clever idea of
substituting the phrase 'climate change,' which was highly effective for a
while, since the Earth's climate is constantly changing regardless of what
the temperature is doing," he said.

"Then, when nonbelievers began to ignore the message again, the mantra
became 'climate crisis.' That escalated into the current 'climate
emergency,' hoping that the term 'emergency' would actually stir people
into action and persuade them to back net-zero CO2 and other measures.

"Another element is the far left's desire to overthrow the whole
capitalist system, which they regard as evil and the source of all
society's problems. For them, a climate crisis or emergency is a
convenient vehicle to achieve their aims."

As for the United Nations' push for net-zero CO2 by 2050, Mr. Alexander
said: "It's a complete waste of time and resources and may well impoverish
many Western economies. China and India are not playing along in any case,
which makes the whole effort meaningless."

Poverty and Human Health

Calvin Beisner, an expert in environmental ethics and the founder and
national spokesperson for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of
Creation, agrees that nature, not humans, causes most climate change. He
said that the push to decrease CO2 by transitioning from fossil fuels to
renewable energy is trapping people in extreme poverty worldwide.

"I have testified to committees of Congress that the amount of global
warming that is attributable to human activity is so slight as to have
little impact on human well-being," Mr. Beisner, who testified before
committees of the U.S. Senate and House, told The Epoch Times.

"But the attempt to reduce that warming by forcing a rapid transition from
coal, oil, and natural gas to wind and solar and other so-called renewable
energy sources would slow, stop, or reverse the time out of poverty for
people worldwide. And poverty is a far greater risk to human health and
life than anything related to climate."

Mr. Beisner explained that when people have wealth, they can thrive in
"any climate from the Arctic Circle to the Sahara Desert to the Brazilian
rainforest." But when people try to survive on a few dollars daily, they
can't thrive in "even the best tropical paradise."

He said that economic development, owing partly to cheap fossil fuels, has
allowed the populace to thrive in countries such as the United States as
well as in Europe. But now, with the United Nations' push to net-zero CO2
by 2050, developed countries are telling countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
and parts of Asia and Latin America "to forego the use of abundant,
affordable, reliable energy from fossil fuels that lifted the West out of
poverty and restrict themselves to the use of diffuse, expensive,
unreliable, wind and solar, and thus, slowing their rise out of poverty."

"This is the West forcing its ideology on the rest," Mr. Beisner said.
"And it is ethically unconscionable. It's ironic that so many
environmentalists who embrace progressive or woke ideologies, and
therefore tend to condemn colonialism of the past, now embrace this
Neo-colonial movement."

Like Mr. Alexander, Mr. Beisner pointed back to Mr. Christy's data on the
Earth's global temperature and said: "We've come out of an ice age, or we
are coming out of a little ice age that ran roughly 1350 to 1850.

"I agree with what their satellite data shows, which is that the rate of
increase in global average temperature has been about 0.13 degrees Celsius
per decade since the satellite records began in 1979. That would be about
1.3 degrees per century. Certainly, nothing that is going to cause a
disaster for mankind."

He said that there's a push to declare a climate emergency because
"politicians with poorly formed consciences find it easy to justify the
growth of government power by appealing to fear of crisis or emergency,
and the leading politicians in America today are far more hungry for power
than they are committed to the good of the populace."

Weather and Alarmist Rhetoric

Richard Lindzen, an emeritus professor of meteorology and the Alfred P.
Sloan professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told The
Epoch Times that the argument that there's an "existential threat" to the
earth from increasing temperatures is a "purely political statement,"
since even the IPCC doesn't claim there's an existential threat.

Instead, the IPCC references scientists and climate activists who claim
there's an existential threat, but has never made this claim itself, Mr.
Lindzen said.

"The [climate] models haven't even suggested it," he said. "And it arises
from the fact that this was originally a political issue. And the
politicians involved in it worry that their hysteria isn't catching the
best. They keep shifting from the global mean temperature to extreme
weather. And you know, they keep saying, 'Get worried, get worried!
Panic!' But science never suggested that [there's a climate emergency]."

Mr. Lindzen said that even if those in power believed that there was an
existential threat to the climate, the policies they've adopted to
mitigate such a threat don't make sense.

"If you believe CO2 is the villain and that we're facing an existential
threat, net zero is the wrong policy. All the things done-electric cars
are ridiculous. Look at how CO2 is behaving. We've spent trillions so far,
and it hasn't changed a bit. It's continuing to go up at the same rate,"
he said.

"The only purpose of the policies is to make the society poorer. And if
you're poorer, you're less resilient. So if you believe CO2 is an
existential threat and your policies are doing nothing to prevent it but
are making you less resilient, one would have to ask, are you a
pathological sadist?"

Mr. Lindzen said it's important to remember that the Earth is spherical,
and the major climate change during the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000
years ago, didn't come from the greenhouse effect (meaning heat trapped
close to the Earth's surface). Instead, it occurred due to the temperature
difference between the tropics and the poles.

He explained that the wave-like motions traveling from west to east on
weather maps, are convective motions that carry heat from the tropics to
the poles.

"[Convective motions] try to establish a certain temperature distribution
before they stop pumping," he said, explaining that the process is similar
to heating a pot of water. The motion of the boiling water is the
temperature trying to eliminate the temperature difference between the
heating at the bottom of the pot and the water on top.

Similarly, when the sun hits the Earth's surface, it hits it head-on at
the equator but barely skims the surface at the poles. Thus, the Earth
undertakes a similar action to the temperature in the pot of water and,
essentially, tries to equalize the heat between the equator and the poles
by distributing the temperature in waves. And that's what we understand as
weather.

"If you have no ice, the surface will bring you to 20 degrees different
centigrade [68 degrees F], which you had 50 [million] years ago. If you
have a glacial maximum, it'll bring you to a temperature difference that's
20 degrees greater than today. But these have nothing to do with the
greenhouse process," Mr. Lindzen said.

"No evidence exists that the tropics and pole temperature differences are
changing. And that's what caused major climate change [in the past].
Whatever change we've seen is minimal and is due largely to what the
tropics are doing."

Mr. Lindzen, like the others, said the push to declare a "climate
emergency" isn't about science but money and power.

"You have to wonder about politicians, whether it's a form of psychosis,"
he said. "Maybe it's neuroses, sometimes. But I think the attraction of
political power is not something normal people find irresistible."

Joe Bastardi, co-chief meteorologist at WeatherBell, a weather forecasting
service, says the weather constantly searches for balance, or "dynamic
equilibrium." But unlike Mr. Lindzen, Mr. Bastardi argues that we've seen
a slight increase in temperature due to geothermal increases.

"In the geological timescale, we're in what you would refer to as a
climate optimum, not a climate emergency," Mr. Bastardi told The Epoch
Times. "There were several times when we saw this kind of warming in the
past, and life thrived on the planet. I suspect the reason that past
warming occurred is likely because the ocean warmed. And the oceans
warmed, I think, because of increasing underwater volcanic activity."

He said a perfect example of his theory is the 2022 eruption of the
underwater volcano Hunga Tonga, which sent the equivalent of 58,000
swimming pools worth of water vapor into the stratosphere and accounts for
warmer-than-average weather in some areas during 2023.

"Increases in the geothermal activity precede the increase in sea surface
temperatures," he said. "Water vapor is the number one greenhouse gas. So
if the oceans warm, you put more water vapor into the air. Consequently,
you get the warming, and most of the warming is occurring away from the
equator. And that's another clue because it's occurring where it's coldest
and driest, and that's where water vapor has the greatest influence on
temperature."

Returning to the idea of dynamic equilibrium, Mr. Bastardi explained that
the atmosphere "fights back" when temperature changes occur.

"I mean, the biggest dirty little secret-and only a meteorologist who
follows hurricanes would understand this-is that the trapping hotspots
that [climate activists] were pushing in the 1990s never showed up over
the tropics. They're over the Arctic, which is a very different response.
That means that the atmosphere is fighting back," he said.

Mr. Bastardi forecasts that it'll be "very, very cold and very, very
stormy this winter."

"If you do get warming in the Arctic, [cooling] is a natural response to
the warming. These big El Niños have to go off when you build up the ocean
heat. When they go off, I mean it's beautiful. You can see the rise in the
temperatures as a step-up function directly correlated to the big El
Niños," he said.

He said if the temperature rises due to geothermal activity, the increase
is not man-made, and the push for net-zero CO2 by 2050 is pointless.

"My judgment is that these people are pushing [a climate emergency] for a
completely different reason than climate and weather," he said.

Questioning the Narrative

"Climate is a composition of a whole lot of stuff that affects climate,"
Larry Bell, an architect known for designing and crafting inhabitable
buildings for space, and an endowed professor at the University of
Houston, told The Epoch Times. "It's tough to model because we don't know
all the proportions of different variables influencing [climate].

"Some variables operate over hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of
years, and have to do with our planet's position in the solar system, or
position in the galaxy, and ocean changes that have nothing to do with the
atmosphere-El Niño and La Niña, the effect of solar changes (which are
magnetic changes that affect astrophysics)-so it's really complex, and a
lot of what we call climate science is very specialized. People study one
thing or another, but the studies aren't connected."

He said geologists, for example, look at long-term trends that reflect on
rocks and geological formations, while mathematicians and astrophysicists
look at climate differently. And none of the different disciplines can say
they have it ultimately figured out because it's "devilishly complicated."

He said there were four decades of cooling following World War II, even
though war-time efforts resulted in additional CO2 in the atmosphere.

"So, the notion that there's some simple correlation between carbon
dioxide and climate change is a convenient contrivance," he said.

Mr. Bell said he first got interested in climate change when Fred Singer,
the founder of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service, visited him at his
office in early 1979 and showed him that satellite weather data wasn't
working as some had predicted.

"He said weather satellites weren't showing the 'hotspot it'd predicted
over the tropical troposphere,'" Mr. Bell said.

"The climate models were predicting that the atmosphere warms first and
then the surface, and they predicted because of that a hotspot would be
detectable over the equator, and they weren't finding it."

Mr. Bell said he didn't overthink climate change at the time, but as the
years passed and he heard more about it, he started questioning the
constantly changing narrative.

At first, there was concern that "the glaciers are coming" and global
cooling would be a problem, but then 10 years later, the fears had flipped
to "global warming," he said.

"Timothy Wirth, who helped organize a Senate hearing on global warming in
Washington, famously told a magazine that they scheduled the meeting for
what was typically the hottest day of the year, and the night before the
meeting, they went in and opened all the windows and turned off the air
conditioning," he said.

"And James Hansen ... heading the Institute for Space Studies, which was
part of NASA, he came out and said, 'The planet is on fire, and we're
causing it!' And this was part of the narrative because it was a prelude
to pushing all this green energy stuff."

Mr. Bell said the claim that 97 percent of scientists agree that humans
are causing global warming isn't truthful.

He said scientists agree that the climate is changing, but "there's no
such emergency whatsoever."

"The climate has been warming in fits and starts since the last little ice
age. And it may continue. But if you look at images of New York, at the
shoreline there of the Statue of Liberty, the water hasn't risen. The sea
level is not appreciably different than it was years ago. So that's
anecdotal, but it's real. Your eyes can see it," he said.

Mr. Bell said another narrative pushed by climate alarmists is that the
weather is getting more violent in the form of hurricanes and other
weather-related disasters.

"All they have to do is look at the records. No, it's not worse! Hurricane
seasons were much worse in the '30s. But they look in terms of fatalities
or damage, and more people live on the coast now than there were then," he
said.

Mr. Bastardi confirmed Mr. Bell's take: "The kinetic energy of hurricanes
has been decreasing, and you can see that with the ACE [Accumulated
Cyclone Energy] index-it's been lowering.

"What [climate alarmists] do is they're sort of predators in that they
realize the average person doesn't have time to think and examine every
little detail, especially in this day and age where people live paycheck
to paycheck and are worried about their jobs.

"The everyday person isn't looking at the fact that there's 100 times more
property value in the way, and inflation has gone through the roof, so
that when a hurricane now is a place like Fort Myers or hits a place like
Myrtle Beach, it's going to do much, much more damage than it did before."

When asked what concerns him most about the current narratives being
pushed by climate alarmists, Mr. Bell answered: "I care about how climate
hysteria, and how misinformation, drives policy. And these policies are
driving our foundational bedrock policies that determine our economic
well-being. They determine our national defense mastery-we won't run a
Navy on ethanol. We're not going to run an Air Force on extension cords.
It's just absolutely insane. People think of climate as science. No, it's
not. It's the big lever of government. It's big globalism. And it ain't
favoring the U.S.

"There's absolutely nothing more impacting, nothing more effective, I
think, than leveraging the climate scare."
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