ACUS11 KWNS 220036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220036
CAZ000-220230-
Mesoscale Discussion 2391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Areas affected...far southern California Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 220036Z - 220230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Convection approaching the coast may pose a brief threat
of a weak tornado and damaging wind gust over the next few hours. A
watch is unlikely given the marginal and isolated nature of the
threat.
DISCUSSION...Convection has deepened and strengthened along a
convergence band off the far southern California coast and will move
onshore in the next couple of hours. While the convection currently
lacks lightning, there has been a history of rotation offshore.
Despite the shallow and meager instability, there is sufficient
deep-layer and low-level shear to support storm organization and
rotation. As such, the potential for a weak tornado and a strong
wind gust will exist as this band moves onshore.
..Jirak/Smith.. 10/22/2026
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hPTCDA5WT53xR1V2KvgpiMnhgpFgYVodwfrze1Mg_xHZol3jMUFH3Ktng34LNKpSfealoPKjLbTrNsK0TpyvaghdIE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGX...
LAT...LON 32571748 33011761 33411804 33691796 33871794 33861768
33581732 33301706 32961692 32751694 32581701 32571748
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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--- scorpsmtpd
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