ACUS11 KWNS 211954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211954
AZZ000-212130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central/northern Arizona

Concerning...Tornado Watch 688...

Valid 211954Z - 212130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch #688, with
a potential focus over parts of Yavapai and Coconino Counties for
the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KFSX continues to depict
periodic supercells tracking north-northeastward across parts of
Yavapai into southern Coconino Counties, where forcing for ascent is
maximized with a south-southwesterly low-level jet and related
warm-air advection. Similar to earlier this morning, most of these
storms locally intensify as they interact with terrain features,
where low-level vorticity and mesoscale ascent remain maximized.
Given pockets of diurnal heating in cloud breaks and around 150-200
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per observed storm motions and KFSX VWP), this
area should remain locally favorable for supercells capable of
producing large hail, locally severe gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes in the near term.

..Weinman.. 10/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZwLt4JII6rDT-Id_Oi4B8jLTO3WVAhV_YEApP8dwKcJGv-Fml15wC88hY_wX_E1_Fe86yu8eCE4myb7NzBIsAiFeLg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

LAT...LON 34541281 34801319 35081327 35461310 35751269 35991214
36001187 35901163 35541143 34641139 34311168 34351212
34541281

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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