ACUS11 KWNS 211836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211835
AZZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern and central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211835Z - 212100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase through the afternoon,
especially between 20Z and 23Z. The primary concerns will be large
hail and severe wind gusts. A watch may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening boundary-layer cumulus evolving across parts of southern AZ --
beneath a plume of mid/high-level clouds. Over the next few hours,
continued differential heating and orographic circulations should
promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20Z-23Z time
frame. The KEMX VWP is sampling an elongated hodograph (40-50 kt of
0-6 km shear) and modest low-level hodograph curvature (albeit
weaker low-level shear compared to areas farther north). This,
combined with the destabilizing PBL, will support
discrete/semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Given the
expectation for separated updrafts, large to very large hail and
locally severe gusts will be the primary concerns (though a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out with any longer-lived supercells). While
timing is somewhat uncertain, a watch may eventually be needed for
parts of the area.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 10/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6cd_rI4q3JIucs4XypDEZ25vD8luxOq2OiUfnRUPAo8NxCtND2W9bphXRK3JbEXkLloPLJEjWLmuvHs0nPRxa9eGbyA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32340968 32401094 32691159 33351273 33641292 33841285
33971261 34061157 34091105 34040993 33940931 33680912
33210904 32630916 32340968

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)