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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2386

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 16:36:10 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 211635
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211635
    AZZ000-NVZ000-211830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2386
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

    Areas affected...Northern and central Arizona into far southeastern
    Nevada

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

    Valid 211635Z - 211830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for supercells capable of producing a few
    tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts will continue
    increasing into this afternoon. A Tornado Watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Within a broad zone of warm/moist advection extending
    across AZ, a couple of storms have intensified into supercells,
    though this intensification has been mostly associated with
    small-scale terrain enhancements thus far. Recent visible satellite
    and radar data now show the genesis zone for deep convection south
    of the Mogollon Rim, where the boundary layer is diurnally
    destabilizing. Current thinking is that this activity will continue
    tracking northward toward the aforementioned terrain features and
    related enhancement to low-level shear profiles. This, combined with
    a sheltered boundary layer with clockwise-curved low-level
    hodographs (per VWP and mesoanalysis data) along/north of the Rim,
    should promote an increase in supercells through the afternoon.
    Given generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent,
    discrete/semi-discrete supercells should persist, with an associated
    risk for a few tornadoes, large hail, and locally severe gusts. A
    Tornado Watch is likely for parts of central and northern AZ.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 10/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!47uACxxWtB5nK2o2WHmIOsvzF2BjNS_WBZLnrJDY2FY2-1OX0YMURMHriIGr3WKrdbKiHQgTSyVckPT6FXh-j23SGOk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 33751069 33901210 34121313 34441403 34831435 35341449
    35931445 36511421 36691383 36751335 36651180 36091022
    35670975 34860956 34100999 33751069

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)