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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2385

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 13:50:06 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 211349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211349
    AZZ000-211515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2385
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0849 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

    Areas affected...West central and central Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 211349Z - 211515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail/wind damage and a tornado or two will
    be possible with occasional supercells through the morning. There
    is some uncertainty in the timing of any ramp up in storm coverage,
    which is the primary uncertainty for watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have weakened as the convection
    moved across the Mogollon Rim and into a slightly cooler/more stable environment atop the higher terrain. Additional/isolated
    thunderstorms are forming northeast through northwest of Phoenix
    within a low-midlevel moisture plume, potentially aided by embedded
    speed maxima moving north-northeastward. Though the coverage of
    additional storms through the morning is in question, a
    conditionally favorable environment for supercells will persist with
    sufficient buoyancy (per modified RAP forecast soundings) and
    hodograph length/curvature based on the observed VWPs from KIWA and
    KFSX. This area will continue to be monitored through the day, with
    the potential for isolated large hail, strong gusts and possibly a
    tornado or two as storms interact with the Rim and the zone of
    somewhat greater buoyancy/vertical shear. Though timing is
    uncertain, a ramp up in storm coverage could justify watch issuance
    at some point later this morning.

    ..Thompson/Mosier.. 10/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rvlkBDx97aS_xDg34aK50foIt2hbElt4WJ5TBLy_2vC7gBTT7xpvjW_8cwUL2sOPNlgBy7XsPYTAiItoyDmtOCNhxU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 33141259 33291355 34091384 34881348 35371310 35531244
    35331165 34811111 33941121 33411181 33141259

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)