ACUS11 KWNS 210806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210805
AZZ000-211000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...parts of central and northern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210805Z - 211000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk
for small to marginally severe hail may persist another hour or two,
north of the Greater Phoenix area into the Mogollon Rim vicinity
south of Flagstaff, with diminishing potential through 2-4 AM MST
and into/across northern Arizona.

DISCUSSION...There has been an increase in number of thunderstorms
initiating over the past couple of hours, as a focused area of
large-scale ascent begins to spread north of the lower deserts into
the Colorado Plateau. At higher elevations across and north of the
Mogollon Rim, the boundary-layer moisture increases remain modest,
within a relatively cool environment. This is likely to continue to
suppress destabilization, particularly as temperatures around 500 mb
begin to warm through 10-12z. In the presence of strong deep-layer
shear, the environment north of Greater Phoenix into the Mogollon
Rim vicinity may continue to support a few storms capable of
producing small to marginally severe hail for another hour or two,
however this potential is expected to remain more limited with
northward extent.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 10/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5-LFLSbYacAHMylg7gEqORjdtDihtcgXcJLriil5BsBumobaPJ2-8G94TK1Q7astize_0o4jV51Qj9p4L9-6JPeyBZk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34241266 36281224 36541009 34970998 33751177 34241266

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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