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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2382

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 21:34:38 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 162134
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162133 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0433 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...687...

    Valid 162133Z - 162300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686, 687
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A broken band of low-topped thunderstorms with a history
    of wind damage should continue eastward this evening. More stable
    conditions to the east should slowly weaken the complex with time.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, regional radar imagery over the
    Northeast/Mid Atlantic showed a broken band of low-topped
    thunderstorms from southern NY to VA. portions of this line have a
    history of wind damage across WW686. The environment downstream is
    strongly sheared, but increasingly stable with SBCAPE decreasing
    below 500 J/kg across southern New England. Slightly more buoyancy
    is being observed farther south into the DelMarVa where more
    clearing has been present. Trends over the last hour show northern
    portions of the line have weakened and become less organized. This
    trend is likely to continue as storms move into portions of WW687,
    though the strength of the background wind field will still favor
    isolated damaging gusts potential into this evening.

    The greatest severe potential appears to be focused across
    southeastern PA, into southern NJ and the Mid Atlantic Coast where
    warmer and more unstable conditions will persist into the evening
    hours. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across WW687 before
    convection weakens/moves offshore around 2-3z.

    ..Lyons.. 10/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!84aOhBRmbv1FuaGds_PUeAMGSLul2B8ZMtnnm-IRHWJfpd5eYdyNvJtA46-DaC22CgJM9AUZs8RdByAt0WePiKzif6U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38837882 40337619 42027416 42027313 41897278 41567273
    40877320 38717500 38347738 38427802 38837882

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)