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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2380

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 23:09:18 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 152308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152308
    INZ000-ILZ000-160015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2380
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

    Areas affected...far southeastern Illinois into southern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 152308Z - 160015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two
    should be maximized over the next couple of hours across far
    southeast IL into southern IN.

    DISCUSSION...KVWX/KIND radars show a broken line of strong/severe
    storms near the IL/IN border. Located near the intersection of a
    low-level surface trough and warm front, convection has gradually
    intensified over the last hour. Low-level rotation and supercell
    structures have been observed, though the overall convective mode is
    a mixture of cells and linear clusters. The environment downstream
    remains supportive of strong/severe storms this evening with
    damaging gusts the most likely hazard.

    Low-level rotation has increased over the last 15 min with several
    embedded mesocyclones. The KVWX VAD shows substantial veering in the
    lowest 1-2km with 0-500m SRH above 250 m2/s2 near the front. This
    and an STP of 1-2 will support the potential for a tornado or two
    with any stronger supercell structures or QLCS segments as they
    approach the frontal zone.

    The loss of diurnal heating and storm motions will eventually move
    convection into more stable air this evening. This suggests the
    greatest severe threat is likely over the next couple of hours.

    ..Lyons/Smith.. 10/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8YiF9Ex4mGbJ7ZA6CcJblRV3ZA9IQS8yZ4uKASZcp4P-T3YOZfXv5KeFSeeH-jkX7UywZKF5Y8BDzte7e6t5MEuQwFc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 38528822 39168760 39328663 39298605 39158560 38938540
    38628557 38428618 38298735 38288785 38188807 38528822

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)